QF Announcement at BNE airport today

[mviy]

As QF downgrades some routes from 747 capacity to 787 capacity that could open up room for additional options for going to those destinations. Personally I'm hoping that SYD-SFO becomes a daily 787 and that a daily MEL-SFO 787 service is added. But I'd want a better lounge situation in SFO.

I can't see BNE getting many routes with the 787 unless they're routes the 787 wouldn't fly from MEL/SYD. Only the most popular routes can justify services from all of MEL, SYD and BNE.

 

[dk4]

Looks like a move to a hybrid network strategy of; hub&spoke (via SYD with larger aircraft) and point2point (from MEL & BNE on medium size aircraft).

 

[Quickstatus]

Brisvegas to Vegas?

Its a shorter distance than SYD-SFO

I would actually like a seasonal SYD-DEN but thats out of SYD.

 

[Himeno]

Just caught up on this thread and thought why not BNE-YVR-JFK on the 789 with a potential option of a SYD-BNE hop on the outbound and reverse on the inbound? YVR would allow connections to other parts of CAN and north /west of the US without having to enjoy the LAX 'welcome to America' experience and for those going all the way to JFK they can go through US CBP there...

Would combine QF15/16, make QF75/76 permanent and replace the 'cross-country' leg of QF11/12.

I don't see that happening while they have the 3 LAX flights. LAX is operated as a scissor hub for JFK. QF pax from 3 flights heading for JFK connect to the one flight. Unless they get the aircraft needed to fly SYD/MEL-JFK non stop, they aren't going to move the JFK flight from LAX, unless they also have flights to the mid point hub from MEL and SYD.

CX fly HKG-YVR-JFK (CX888/889). They don't use US preclearance. In YVR, all pax off. JFK pax head into a holding room where they are screened with cabin bags checked (US gate screening isn't done in HKG for this flight as it is considered a flight to Canada). Pax joining in YVR are then let in to the room and the US extra screening. Arrives in JFK as international.
Any QF AU-YVR-JFK would likely be treated the same way.

Now with the recent announcement that QF1 to London was returning via Singapore; I wouldn't be surprised to see BNE-SIN-BNE operated with a 787, which will give you economy, PE and a decent business class.
I would think BNE-LAX-BNE will come a bit later, depending on loads.

If they did that with the 2nd batch, they displace a single A330 (rather then 2 747s on BNE-LAX-JFK). How does displacing a single A330 assist in allowing the retirement of 3 747s?

 

[justinbrett]

What happened to the talk of BNE-PER-CDG?

 

[mviy]

There are multiple possibilities as to what QF could do. I'm sure they're weighing up their options and will be considering whether to buy any more 787 aircraft to fly to other destinations.

 

[moa999]

What happened to the talk of BNE-PER-CDG?

I'd think might be surpassed by BNE/MEL-SIN-CDG
but we'd need another order of 787s for that to occur. Aircraft 5-8 seem destined for BNE-Nth America

 

[Himeno]

What happened to the talk of BNE-PER-CDG?

The simple fact that placing the 4 2nd batch 787s on such a route does absolutely nothing to meet the goal of those aircraft to retire 3 747s.

 

[justinbrett]

The simple fact that placing the 4 2nd batch 787s on such a route does absolutely nothing to meet the goal of those aircraft to retire 3 747s.

It does if it goes LAX-BNE-PER-CDG, which it probably would. Mirror of LAX-MEL-PER-LHR.

 

[michaele]

What happened to the talk of BNE-PER-CDG?

Guilty.. But to be fair I didnt expect QF to be pulling out of DXB and heading back to SIN!

 

[Himeno]

It does if it goes LAX-BNE-PER-CDG, which it probably would. Mirror of LAX-MEL-PER-LHR.

No, it doesn't. Putting 787s on QF15/16 only replaces 2 747s. Also, due to curfews at most airports in Europe, including CDG, such a routing would require similar timings to the LAX-MEL-PER-LHR flights, meaning afternoon departure for LAX from BNE. Thus there is no time for the aircraft to fly on to JFK. The other aircraft then available for the JFK flight are A380s, which are too large for the route.
They aren't going to toss in another ULH route like PER-CDG until they know how well PER-LHR works.

Also, with the draw down of the 747 fleet to 6 aircraft, it is likely they will not have enough aircraft to maintain the existing 747 flights, meaning not enough aircraft for the YVR seasonal.
Thus, there is a high probability that the 4 BNE based 787s will be used for flights to LAX and YVR, making YVR year round and removing 747s from 2 routes.

New routes are likely going to have to wait until new aircraft come after the 8 firm 787 orders.

 

[justinbrett]

No, it doesn't. Putting 787s on QF15/16 only replaces 2 747s. Also, due to curfews at most airports in Europe, including CDG, such a routing would require similar timings to the LAX-MEL-PER-LHR flights, meaning afternoon departure for LAX from BNE. Thus there is no time for the aircraft to fly on to JFK. The other aircraft then available for the JFK flight are A380s, which are too large for the route.
They aren't going to toss in another ULH route like PER-CDG until they know how well PER-LHR works.

Also, with the draw down of the 747 fleet to 6 aircraft, it is likely they will not have enough aircraft to maintain the existing 747 flights, meaning not enough aircraft for the YVR seasonal.
Thus, there is a high probability that the 4 BNE based 787s will be used for flights to LAX and YVR, making YVR year round and removing 747s from 2 routes.

New routes are likely going to have to wait until new aircraft come after the 8 firm 787 orders.

PER-CDG would be at the same time as PER-LHR anyway in order to get the feeds from MEL-CDG and BNE-LHR.

You're assuming QF will always operate LAX-JFK. In a future AA JV deal that might cease, especially to make way for an eventual SYD-JFK service.

This is all speculation - and as you say I don't think any decisions will be made until they've got some good data from the PER-LHR route. There are quite a few AusBT articles that indicate more European routes ex PER could be possible with the next batch of 787s.

 

[flightobserver]

The simple fact that placing the 4 2nd batch 787s on such a route does absolutely nothing to meet the goal of those aircraft to retire 3 747s.

When the QF fleet had 11 747s, one frame was a spare as the schedule only required 10 frames. The retirement of OJM effectively removed that spare. The introduction of the first four 787 will account for OEB once everything settles down in April, removing the MEL "based" 747 (QF 29/30 has returned to A330 flying now). The BNE batch will replace the two 747 on BNE-LAX-JFK while one of the A380 freed from QF 9/10 replaces the 747 on QF 127/128. All 5 747 accounted for.

In peak times the 12th A380 could be used 3x weekly SYD-SFO, freeing up a 747 for YVR. My money is on DFW or ORD being the other 787 destination from BNE.

 

[justinbrett]

In peak times the 12th A380 could be used 3x weekly SYD-SFO, freeing up a 747 for YVR. My money is on DFW or ORD being the other 787 destination from BNE.

I personally can't see any new US routes being announced until the JV deal is approved. But otherwise, BNE-DFW is the smarter route due to the number of AA connections. (ORD is only useful for connecting to NE - far few destinations than offered ex DFW). Not saying ORD won't happen but I think we'll see BNE-DFW first. SYD-ORD (8022nm) is within the published range of 787-9 (8300nm) so might be possible instead of BNE - would be much more successful.

 

[Flyerqf]

[FONT=.SFUIText]Based on recent announcements, this is how the utilisation is looking. Not sure on the A330 fleet as this is much more dynamic and there are still new routes to be announced.[/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]The 380/747 fleet is looking a bit tight to be able to handle maintenance and the 380 refurb program.[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText][/FONT]
[/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]A380 (12)[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]SYD-LAX 2[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]MEL-LAX 2[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]SYD-SIN-LHR 3[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]MEL-SIN 1[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]SYD-DFW 2[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]SYD-HKG 1[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]Spare 1[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText][/FONT]
[/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]B747 (6)[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]SYD-JNB 1.5[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]SYD-HND 1.5[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]SYD-SCL 1[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]SYD-SFO 2[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText][/FONT]
[/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]B787(8)[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]MEL-LAX 2[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]MEL-PER-LHR 2[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]BNE-LAX-JFK 2[/FONT][/FONT]
[FONT=.SF UI Text][FONT=.SFUIText]TBC 2[/FONT][/FONT]