QF fleet renewal still a long way off

[Melburnian1]

Qantas could dangle orders for A330NEOs and/or A350s or threaten to reduce the existing A320 order. Some amount of scope to negotiate there.

QF's orders, while welcome, are a tiny percentage of Airbus' total current orders.

 

[Berlin]

Mr Joyce ought concentrate on matters aviation, such as the ageing domestic fleet, especially staying out of bullying sportsplayers.

Seems like your thinking in this respect is simply as yesteryear as is cough- and transphobia, mysogony, racism and so on in general.

Happened to come across this very interesting and relevant presentation from IRI this morning. Times have changed and Joyce is going with the times in this respect, whether old white straight men like it or not!

 

[JohnPhelan]

The age of an aircraft is not much of an issue, provided it is well-maintained and refurbed periodically.

 

[support]

@Berlin & @Melburnian1 let's keep the thread on topic.

Further off-topic discussion could lead to post deletions. This isn't the thread for that commentary.

 

[admin]

@Berlin & @Melburnian1 let's keep the thread on topic.

Further off-topic discussion could lead to post deletions. This isn't the thread for that commentary.

And I - like many others - am getting pretty tired of legitimate threads being hijacked by those pushing their agenda or belief system which has nothing to do with either the topic of AFFs core business. If this behaviour continues, not only will post be deleted but the offending members will enjoy an enforced holiday from AFF.

 

[dajop]

And I - like many others - am getting pretty tired of legitimate threads being hijacked by those pushing their agenda or belief system which has nothing to do with either the topic of AFFs core business. If this behaviour continues, not only will post be deleted but the offending members will enjoy an enforced holiday from AFF.

Here here. It's been terrible in the last few days.

 

[Berlin]

And I - like many others - am getting pretty tired of legitimate threads being hijacked by those pushing their agenda or belief system which has nothing to do with either the topic of AFFs core business. If this behaviour continues, not only will post be deleted but the offending members will enjoy an enforced holiday from AFF.

I am the first one to agree as long as this gets enforced for both sides. Back to airline talk!

 

[moa999]

Some good slides yesterday about where Qantas sees it's fleet replacement going until 2027.
They are planning on spending $2bn on replacement annually, plus anything for growth on top.


Note no new 787s in that slide. QF already have had 2 delivered in FY19, ZNK due Dec 2019, and the remaining 3 are expected to be delivered mid 2020, seemingly one in May/June and two in July/Aug (falling into FY21)

63 narrowbodies means there are another 27 narrowbody aircraft up for grabs after last years conversion and order for 36 321neoXLRs

QANTAS GROUP UPDATES AIRBUS ORDER WITH EXTRA LONG RANGE A321

Keep up to date with Qantas' latest news and information, media releases, articles, images and more with the Qantas News Room.

www.qantasnewsroom.com.au

I think the 21 widebodies would reflect the first 4 332s, all 10 333s then 3 332s (to EBG) all of which will have 20th birthdays by 2027.

If so - it would seem that Sunrise is being classed as growth (so not in these numbers)

Another interesting comment that the A380 refurbs are expected to deliver 7% higher revenue per flight (due to greater premium seats, mostly PE)

 

[Sabot]

Some good slides yesterday about where Qantas sees it's fleet replacement going until 2027.
They are planning on spending $2bn on replacement annually, plus anything for growth on top.

View attachment 197329View attachment 197330
Note no new 787s in that slide. QF already have had 2 delivered in FY19, ZNK due Dec 2019, and the remaining 3 are expected to be delivered mid 2020, seemingly one in May/June and two in July/Aug (falling into FY21)

63 narrowbodies means there are another 27 narrowbody aircraft up for grabs after last years conversion and order for 36 321neoXLRs

QANTAS GROUP UPDATES AIRBUS ORDER WITH EXTRA LONG RANGE A321

Keep up to date with Qantas' latest news and information, media releases, articles, images and more with the Qantas News Room.

www.qantasnewsroom.com.au

I think the 21 widebodies would reflect the first 4 332s, all 10 333s then 3 332s (to EBG) all of which will have 20th birthdays by 2027.

If so - it would seem that Sunrise is being classed as growth (so not in these numbers)

Another interesting comment that the A380 refurbs are expected to deliver 7% higher revenue per flight (due to greater premium seats, mostly PE)

Nice slides!

I really have come around to the Airbus product, makes me think that have some sort of economy of scale / interoperability with Jetstar may be a bonus.

As someone has already correctly pointed out, the problem is going to limited scope for discount on the Airbus product at the moment and the substantial discount Boeing are going to have offer to get the Crashmaster 5000 moving units.

 

[eastwest101]

Interesting slides - lots to renew for the Qantas Group with Project Sunrise and International Widebody as well as the large narrowbody domestic fleet replacement, pretty much every fleet decision is really an IR negotiation tactic between the workforce of pilots/crew and the union busting Jetstar franchise to get further duty hours and efficiencies out of the workforce, as well as the problematic state of the aircraft market, with only two manufacturers and one with real issues now about safety and ability to develop new aircraft on schedule, the other one isn't out of the woods either while being swamped with orders and inability to increase production rates plus future EU ructions when EU contries get sick of being taxpayer donors for Airbus. Don't forget the second hand market, and Qantas haven't had many/any good experience with buying second hand equipment but the state of the aircraft market is always changing and opportunities are there, although the preference is usually to have all new aircraft to maximise the lifespan although it also maximizes the upfront capital cost, the higher the upfront capital cost (or leasing costs) the higher the utilisation required to pay for the shiny new aircraft.

Record low interest rates, capacity cuts at home and worldwide, a domestic competitor still struggling and pressure from overseas airlines decreasing all give Qantas a chance to look at its fleet options. Don't forget the gate space, terminal and slots consideration for congested Australian airports (in particular MEL and SYD) might see another look at larger capacity aircraft (or variants of A320 family or B737 family) other than B738's being a consideration. Just some of my opinions on the choices around.......

Sunrise Options:
B777-8: dead on arrival, Boeing reluctant to build and not flying yet (if ever)
B777-9: very low density & extra tankage required means an orphan fleet straight off the production line - timeframe risks for development
A350-ULR: lower risk derivative of currently operating A350 but a new type for QF with all assoc costs of retraining simulators etc no way are Airbus going to offer further discounts, Qantas are totally delusional if they think they are going to get substantial discounts out of Airbus with a full order book.

Other Long Haul Stuff:
A380: mostly paid off and reasonably reliable, "hub busters" proven to be a mixed blessing, accountants hate them but pax love them
B744: already paid off so operate until fuel prices make them uneconomic (only way to recover from "broken A380 syndrome".
A333: ageing but reliable - paid off so fly until end of economic life
A332: same as A333 but more right size and longer range - ideal aircraft for anywhere in Asia
B787-8: operating reasonably reliably, possibly move to QFi mainline if decision is made to go all new shiny A320 type with Jetstar
B787-9: operating reasonably reliably, keep but can't do Project Sunrise with any economic payload in current configuration.

Other Mid haul and Domestic Stuff
NMA (aka B797):- paper aircraft - not realistically available until 2028 at the earliest, if absolutely everything goes right at Boeing from now on
A320 Neo: already on order with a large variety of size and range options so would be crazy to let lapse, large scale replacement of entire B738 fleet with A320 family will have some IR issues and training costs associated with this.
A321 LR XLR: long range variants, low development risk, on the order books, might work for long haul JQi and QFi - range extension will be handy for QFi and JQi
B737 Max -8, -9 -10: currently all grounded, reputational risk, no advantages to the A320 family except for possibility to pick up a lot of them cheaply - high risk option
A220 or E2: to replace B717 and F100s - seems an expensive ask - other secondhand options might also be contenders A319s B737s etc with lower utilization B717s and F100s can go almost forever as long as there are spares and fuel dosen't go crazy.

 

[jakeseven7]

I was thinking the other day, I really miss widebodies on the golden triangle. God I hate the 737/320 options on VA/QF/JQ/TT we basically have to fly unless you are start or end of day on Qantas and score an A330.

Every single flight on VA and QF there are people struggling to find bag space (never an issue on the QF767). The 3-3 config is coughpy and its just a horrible experience.

I would kill for any of the players to bring regular widebodies back onto the golden triangle

 

[jpp42]

I would have to think that slot restrictions at SYD (and maybe even BNE before the new runway opens), would encourage wide bodies for peak hours? Wouldn't it be more efficient to run more A330's instead of a 737 every 15 minutes? I guess the problem is the aircraft utilisation outside of peak - at least with the 737's they can run to smaller destinations during the day and keep the aircraft moving.

 

[BD1959]

Wouldn't it be more efficient to run more A330's instead of a 737 every 15 minutes?

An observation from arriving at MEL at 17:00 yesterday evening. Scheduling a 737 every 15mins provides "flexibility". This is usually read to mean the customer has greater flexibility at booking, however my observation was that QF had last night cancelled two SYD-MEL flights in an hour - both due in at XX-10 - so the 15min 737 allows QF the "flexibility" to sell the option and the "flexibility" to shuffle passengers and cancel flights as it wishes. Like the "LCC model" - all gain for the airline and all smoke and mirrors for the passenger.

I would kill for any of the players to bring regular widebodies back onto the golden triangle

When I was regularly flying MEL-SYD-MEL, I would avoid the A330 Syd-Mel in the evening.

1. The xx-15 flight (usually a 737) was typically cheaper than the A330 15mins earlier
2. Inevitably the transconn flight which served the follow-on SYD-MEL was invariably late, slower to turnaround and all I wanted to do was get home as quickly as possible
3. Those missing the 767s seem to forget how small the bins were above the window seats. Standard roll-ons would only fit in length ways meaning two would fill the space meant for 6 pax.

Regards,

BD

 

[jakeseven7]

An observation from arriving at MEL at 17:00 yesterday evening. Scheduling a 737 every 15mins provides "flexibility". This is usually read to mean the customer has greater flexibility at booking, however my observation was that QF had last night cancelled two SYD-MEL flights in an hour - both due in at XX-10 - so the 15min 737 allows QF the "flexibility" to sell the option and the "flexibility" to shuffle passengers and cancel flights as it wishes. Like the "LCC model" - all gain for the airline and all smoke and mirrors for the passenger.



When I was regularly flying MEL-SYD-MEL, I would avoid the A330 Syd-Mel in the evening.

1. The xx-15 flight (usually a 737) was typically cheaper than the A330 15mins earlier
2. Inevitably the transconn flight which served the follow-on SYD-MEL was invariably late, slower to turnaround and all I wanted to do was get home as quickly as possible
3. Those missing the 767s seem to forget how small the bins were above the window seats. Standard roll-ons would only fit in length ways meaning two would fill the space meant for 6 pax.

Regards,

BD

I personally haven't forgotten how small the bins were, but the bigger middle bins more than compensated and I actually cannot recall a 767 flight where people were stopped in the aisles with hopeless panicked faces because there was zero room - which is now a common occurrence on VA and QF flights especially (JQ scare people from taking too much with their fines!)

I actually find the A330 flights usually cheaper! Because they have more seats available in the lower fare buckets I expect.

 

[jase05]

Sounds like AJ is just trying to leverage a better deal with Airbus, surely he wouldn’t seriously be considering the 737MAX’s

Qantas sees bargain planes at end of 737MAX grounding

Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce says his airline's unmatched safety reputation positions it to negotiate a cut-price deal with Boeing for a new fleet of 737MAX aircraft when the grounded jet returns to the skies.

www.smh.com.au

 

[Melburnian1]

...Record low interest rates, capacity cuts at home and worldwide, a domestic competitor still struggling and pressure from overseas airlines decreasing all give Qantas a chance to look at its fleet options. Don't forget the gate space, terminal and slots consideration for congested Australian airports (in particular MEL and SYD) might see another look at larger capacity aircraft (or variants of A320 family or B737 family) other than B738's being a consideration. Just some of my opinions on the choices around.......

eastwest101, I only just saw this: the usual thorough analysis from you (beyond what some of us are capable of: I have a mirror handy.)

Purchasing decisions and payment are some time and years off respectively but would the state of the $A (today it was very low) be worrying our two major domestic airlines as they prepare for fleet renewal? Or do they hedge purchases/contracts against such falls (if that's the correct term?)

 

[justinbrett]

Sounds like AJ is just trying to leverage a better deal with Airbus, surely he wouldn’t seriously be considering the 737MAX’s

Qantas sees bargain planes at end of 737MAX grounding

Qantas chief executive Alan Joyce says his airline's unmatched safety reputation positions it to negotiate a cut-price deal with Boeing for a new fleet of 737MAX aircraft when the grounded jet returns to the skies.

www.smh.com.au

Why wouldn't he consider them? Qantas's domestic fleet is heavily invested in Boeing 737, it's the logical option.

Like BA did, now is the time to secure them at a great price.

The A320 itself had 4 fatal accidents within its first 6 years of operation - a big factor being pilots being unfamiliar with the new technology of the aircraft. The A320 is still selling...

 

[Berlin]

Why wouldn't he consider them? Qantas's domestic fleet is heavily invested in Boeing 737, it's the logical option.

Because they're all grounded and no on knows when/ if they every will be flying again? Also doesn't help to know that the airplane design is fundamentally flawed so any measure to get them back in the sky will be a dodgy 'tape over' job, no matter what the PR spill from Boeing will be.

I'm surely not the only customer who would feel HIGHLY uneasy ever setting foot on one of these flying coffins

 

[justinbrett]

Because they're all grounded and no on knows when/ if they every will be flying again? Also doesn't help to know that the airplane design is fundamentally flawed so any measure to get them back in the sky will be a dodgy 'tape over' job, no matter what the PR spill from Boeing will be.

I'm surely not the only customer who would feel HIGHLY uneasy ever setting foot on one of these flying coffins

And if this forum existed 30 years ago I’m sure people would have been saying the same about the A320. There is no fundamental aerodynamic or structural problem with the aircraft - it’s software / avionics which will be fixed.

737 Max will be the safest aircraft in the sky when it’s cleared to fly again which it absolutely will be - no aircraft in the history of aviation has been subject to this level of evaluation and testing.

 

[BD1959]

And if this forum existed 30 years ago I’m sure people would have been saying the same about the A320. There is no fundamental aerodynamic or structural problem with the aircraft - it’s software / avionics which will be fixed.

737 Max will be the safest aircraft in the sky when it’s cleared to fly again which it absolutely will be - no aircraft in the history of aviation has been subject to this level of evaluation and testing.

Not according to the NY Times article. I had previously known about the engine issue - which the software was supposed to mitigate, but wiring and potential short circuits ...

Regards,

BD