QFi to Japan post 747 retirement

[sudoer]

I recently booked a J award on QF26 in Jan 2021, and was interested to find this route is still scheduled for operation by a 744 into Feb next year.

So much for AJ's plan to retire all 747s by year end, but it does raise questions for how QF might service Tokyo and greater Japan once the 744 is eventually retired. After HND slot changes on 29 March, QFi will be operating the below routes/configs:

QF25/26 SYD-HND 744 58J 36W 270Y Daily
QF79/80 MEL-HND 332 27J 224Y Daily
QF61/62 BNE-NRT 333 28J 269Y Daily
QF33/34 SYD-KIX 333 28J 269Y 4x Weekly
QF39/40 SYD-CTS 332 27J 224Y 3x Weekly (Dec-Feb seasonal)

I'm curious to hear what people think QF might do with QF25/26 after the 744 is finally gone, given swapping with a:

• 789 would result in a loss of 134 seats (16J 8W 104Y) representing a 36.8% cut in capacity on Sydney-Tokyo direct
• 333 would result in a premium-heavy loss of 30J 36W, and notably QF would then not be selling any W seats to a market quite fond of premium cabins - just have a look at some of the J/W configs on JAL and ANA
• 380 is virtually impossible at HND given the near inoperable restriction of arrivals after 2315 and departures before 0545
• An additional AU slot at HND will only become available if VA pulls out

It would seem Qantas might be in a bit of a pickle? If they'd have won both new HND slots it would've made life a lot easier with options for a daily double SYD-HND 789 service or similar.

I wonder if we'll see a more creative solution such as tacking a KIX-NRT leg onto QF33/34, if Japanese regulation allows it? or thinking truly outside the box - a new SYD-ICN/TPE service with an onwards fifth freedom?!

 

[offshore171]

Yeah I’ve also got a flight on QF26 (for December) and it’s still showing as a 747.

As for the reduction in capacity on the route, isn’t ANA about to double its capacity on this route? This will more than make up the difference I think.

 

[AustraliaPoochie]

If they don't buy any more 787s, they would probably put only 737s onto Aust dom operations, and fly the 330s purely onto longer overseas destinations.

 

[sudoer]

As for the reduction in capacity on the route, isn’t ANA about to double its capacity on this route? This will more than make up the difference I think.

ANA's extra 246 seats per day (assuming they bring their high density config) wouldn't cover both the expected growth and reduced QF capacity, even if it ran completely full for the entire year.

The number of Australians travelling to Japan has been very steadily increasing for the last few years, maintaining >10% YoY growth - yet both direct and indirect airline seat capacity hasn't been keeping up with that growth rate.



Downgauging a premium route like SYD-HND without increasing capacity in some other way seems like a silly move, but what would this armchair CEO know

If they don't buy any more 787s, they would probably put only 737s onto Aust dom operations, and fly the 330s purely onto longer overseas destinations.

AJ has already announced the 744s will each be replaced with a 789 frame, unless he's back-pedalled on that recently?

 

[offshore171]

Don’t forget, ANA also added the Direct Perth flights.

A lot of the WA ppl used to go via Sydney, so this frees up some SYD-TYO capacity.

There’s also the new Virgin flight out of BNE starting soon too I think.

 

[sudoer]

A lot of the WA ppl used to go via Sydney, so this frees up some SYD-TYO capacity.

Sure, but I would have expected many WA residents would've preferred to connect in Singapore (QF71 -> QF4025) if wanting to save travel time and/or land at HND, or via BNE/MEL if wanting to save money. I believe the fare to connect in SYD on QF25/26 is (or was) slightly higher than other ports.

 

[offshore171]

And there's also an extra daily JAL service coming this year, so it looks like a capacity increase of around 1200 per day between AU and JP. That's getting towards half a million seats per annum, so QF switching from a 747 to a 330 or 787 is more than covered several times over.

 

[sudoer]

QF switching from a 747 to a 330 or 787 is more than covered several times over

Yes, I appreciate there is more capacity coming online this year - predominately due to the Olympics. Whether all carriers will continue with their proposed 2020 schedules into 2021 remains to be seen.

Are you suggesting QF should willingly give up some market share on SYD-TYO simply because other carriers are increasing capacity?

 

[jpp42]

Are you suggesting QF should willingly give up some market share on SYD-TYO simply because other carriers are increasing capacity?

I don't think that people are suggesting it's willing, just that the market will take care of the problem as Qantas seems to have no alternative but to cut capacity (although I guess they could swap some 333's for 789's to help with W availability). They probably gambled on getting both slots, lost that gamble, and now are once again suffering the consequences of never buying any B777's which would be perfect for the route. The 747's can't go on forever though, once they truly reach the end I can't see any alternatives for QF except something like more flights to NRT, which I guess doesn't have the yield so is a non-starter?

 

[jb747]

Even before I left, there was a lot of discussion about the 380 being used there. But, apparently the Japanese have said no to the 380 going to Haneda.

 

[sudoer]

But, apparently the Japanese have said no to the 380 going to Haneda.

Correct, for whatever reason:

A380 operations are not permitted during 0600-2300. Arrival time should be after 2315 and Departure time should be no later than 0545.

And yet the last train from Haneda departs shortly after midnight, leaving very little wiggle room for 485 pax.

The 380 would have been the perfect for the job otherwise.

 

[offshore171]

Are you suggesting QF should willingly give up some market share on SYD-TYO simply because other carriers are increasing capacity?

I’m suggesting it’s just market forces doing their thing.

Qantas aren’t going to add capacity they can’t sell, so they need to pick their battles.

I’ve been travelling back and forth to Japan for around 13 years now, and yes the volume of travellers from AU has skyrocketed, but the bulk of the increase has been leisure travellers.

The demand is also very peaky, particularly ski season and to a lesser extent the other Australian school holiday periods.

Some parts of the year the route is pretty quiet and you’ll have the likes of Jetstar flying there for a couple of hundred bucks.

Qantas has to pick its battles.

 

[bullerdude]

I think the 787 would be the likely replacement if I they wish to keep premium economy on the route (which I hope they to); otherwise a 330.

 

[AustraliaPoochie]

Or they might put more emphasis for pax to go on JQ from Au esp CNS or OOL to KIX.
Ie let those JQ flights carry a QF flight number.

 

[sudoer]

let those JQ flights carry a QF flight number.

QF241, QF249 and QF251...

 

[QFflyermelbourne]

There is the option to add a second flight on the 330 to Narita from Sydney. There were lots of rumours that the 747s would stay longer a few months ago but nothing has officially been said. I wonder if they are planning to do that and not make a big fuss. They are relatively young really and a couple of them have just been through D checks so I imagine the cost to continue operating them for another year or two is minimal. You'd think the pilot pool would know by now though.

 

[Himeno]

The main reason I use QF25/26 is because of the W seats (unless it's my main holiday for the year when I get J). If QF were to remove W from JP flights, I'd route via SIN or get JL.
The only reason I would still go via SYD once the MEL-NRT changes to HND is because no W on the QF A330s.

They can change the flight times in one direction and get within the A380 operation requirements, but doing so would run into the late night/early morning ground transport issues (overnight train stoppage, reduced bus service).

The 747 is often sold out or overbooked. I could seen QF returning QF21/22 to regular service and having a SYD-HND and SYD-NRT flight, with complimentary schedules (1 overnight, 1 day in each direction).

 

[Himeno]

Correct, for whatever reason:



And yet the last train from Haneda departs shortly after midnight, leaving very little wiggle room for 485 pax.

The 380 would have been the perfect for the job otherwise.

HND is the 3rd busiest airport in Asia after Dubai and Beijing. The spacing requirements around A380s create additional congestion which HND can not support. Thus, they only allow A380s during the night slot period when there aren't any domestic flights.

 

[Brettmcg]

This doesn't answer the question about the longer-term future, however I'm told that some B744s will remain in the fleet until at least March/April 2021.

 

[jpp42]

HND is the 3rd busiest airport in Asia after Dubai and Beijing

Is your statistic on flight movements, or passengers handled?

There are two huge airports in Beijing now - Beijing Capital (PEK) and Beijing Daxing (PKX). As most Skyteam flights have moved to PKX, I wonder if that comment is accurate (coronavirus disruptions aside). Also, Dubai has two large airports too, with the main passenger gateway DXB being complimented by Al Maktoum (DWC) for freight and low-cost airlines.

This only supports your point though about how busy HND is... I suspect it must exceed PEK these days, but perhaps not DXB. (Where is SIN in the rankings?)