QF's COVID-19 minimal network schedule

[Melburnian1]

On Sunday 21 February 2021, it looks as if, from Melbourne, QFd has cancelled three of about 44 ''own metal'timetabled domestic flights. I counted them quickly so '44'may not be accurate.

Annoyingly, the Melb Airport website treats all then codeshares as worthy of a separate line instead of what many airports worldwide do and put these in a smaller font beneath the ówn metal' flight.

On an equivalent Sunday two years ago, QFd would have had 80 to 100 flights ex MEL (as I read that on a normal weekday then, it was typically operating 120 flights ex MEL).

Given that many flights appear not to be full, and almost all are B738 or smaller capacity aircraft, not A333s/A332s/B789s, the drop in patronage continues to be very significant.

 

[docjames]

Annoyingly, the Melb Airport website treats all then codeshares as worthy of a separate line instead of what many airports worldwide do and put these in a smaller font beneath the ówn metal' flight.

Agree the way MEL displays flights makes for very messy reading.

I would say an attempt to make it look busier than it is, but they were dong that pre-COVID.

The counter argument is better way finding for people booked on codeshares. Personally, i think it’s a mess and the headline flight number with a list of the codes as you suggest is the way to go.

 

[Melburnian1]

Agree the way MEL displays flights makes for very messy reading.

I would say an attempt to make it look busier than it is, but they were dong that pre-COVID.

The counter argument is better way finding for people booked on codeshares. Personally, i think it’s a mess and the headline flight number with a list of the codes as you suggest is the way to go.

doc, I'm not sure it's that. It may be that the airport is 'scared' of passengers missing flights, although that's uncalled for, as every codeshare ticket I recall had those immortal words 'flight is operated by (airline X)' or similar so if unsure, all we need to do is match time and destination. (Given some Australians can't read a newspaper, that may be a big ask).

 

[Melburnian1]

Tuesdays tend to be the quietest weekday for air travel. On Tuesday 23 February 2021 QFd only appears to be operating a maximum of 24 domestic flights (own metal) ex MEL. At a guess this would be lucky to be 30 per cent of the typical pre-COVID-19 schedule for a similar day in a February.

Go back two years and there'd have been in excess of 30 one way QFd MEL - SYD flights alone (especially if that 15 minute frequency occurred during the busiest hour of the morning and afternoon), another 15+ QFd from MEL up to BNE, at least five to PER, 8-12 to ADL from memory...the list goes on.

 

[Melburnian1]

On Tuesday 2 March 2021, despite more State borders being open without quarantining requirements for Victorians, QFd only had 36 'own metal' flights scheduled from Melbourne Airport.

Two years ago it may have timetabled about 30-35 flights from MEL north to SYD alone. Today: 14 on that route, and without checking, if the pattern is repeated from recent months, only one was/is an A333. No A332s on the SYD - MEL - SYD route has been the usual situation for many weeks/months.

Subsidiary JQd cancelled a number of MEL - SYD flights at (relatively) short notice), leaving it with six. So in total, the QF Group had 20 flights on the #1 route northbound, down from an estimated 40-50 on Tuesdays from 2019 for some years backwards.

The decline on some other routes has been worse.

 

[Melburnian1]

Wednesday 3 March 2021 sees the combined QFd/JQd 'Group" having (if I've counted correctly) 75 scheduled flights ex MEL, compared to a pre COVID-19 normal of about 120 for QFd, plus many more (at least 30) from JQd.

While this is better than a few weeks ago, it's still a huge drop compared to 2019 at an identical time of year. March should have a lot of business travel.

There was only one QFd MEL - PER today, 'old faithful', QF773, the 0935 hours.

VAd has one only, at 1100, while JQd cancelled its 0615 hours to PER, but from MEL has one remaining, at 1530 hours, while ZL does not fly to PER.

Competitor VAd has 20 flights across all destinations from MEL and ZL seven.

 

[Melburnian1]

'Minimal' is no longer correct on some routes: 'reduced' would be a better headline.

On Monday 15 March 2021, QFd has 21 southbound SYD to MEL flights scheduled. This would compare to around 36 (perhaps slightly more) on a similar Monday two years ago, pre-COVID-19.

I haven't checked but while QFd and VAd 1.0/VAd 2.0 have favoured B738s for some time, two years ago there may have been slightly more A332s/A333s operating this relatively short sector, so if true, that's a further reduction in available seating capacity.

Subsidiary JQd has 11 timetabled flights from SYD to MEL (down from 15+ IIRC a couple of years ago), VAd has 13 (down from roughly 20) while newbie ZL has six, as the latter is ramping up its frequencies.

In total the Qantas 'group' has 32 flights, VAd 13 and ZL six. While this percentage calculation will slightly underestimate QFd's share of seats given its occasional use of an A332/A333, a 'back-of-the-envelope' result gives QFd 41.1 per cent, JQd 21.6 per cent, VAd 25.5 per cent and ZL 11.8 per cent.

Again, not totally accurate but this estimate gives the QF Group 62.7 per cent market share on the northbound flights of the number one domestic route in Australia tomorrow. It's below the '70 per cent' that QF's CEO keeps referring to, but my figures don't disclose load factors (nor average revenue per available seat, which would be highest for QFd, probably by a fair margin given its higher share of what's left of the corporate market that Zoom/WebEx hasn't stolen).

My hypothesis is that seat occupancy (load) factors on many Australian domestic air routes continue to be below what they were two years ago. In time, the BITRE will give us the facts for some routes. It doesn't disclose these statistics for routes where there is only a single aviation player, nor some of the smaller (mostly rural) routes.

 

[AIRwin]

Looks like QF is matching VA's current "Let your state surprise you" sale fare for one of the routes I searched for:
https://specials.virginaustralia.com/au/sale/let-your-state-surprise-you

Looks like QF is again matching VA's current "Flight Frenzy" sale

 

[Melburnian1]

This morning when QFi announced further international cabin crew redundancies (via an Expressions of Interest process expected to 'result in several hundred applications') in addition to 8500 earlier flagged sackings, CEO Alan Joyce said that 'all of the B787-900s are active'.

What he didn't comment upon was the level of utilisation.

B789 VH-ZNA's last flight saw it arrive in SYD on Monday 17 May at 1731 hours as QF22 from NRT.

ZNB has only done a return trip SYD - NRT in the past seven days.

ZNC departed from MEL to LAX on 13 May and hasn't been used since, although that may have been to have maintenance occur in California.

ZND wasn't used between Saturday evening (15 May and the same of Tuesday 18.

ZNE has done more, currently undertaking its second SYD - DRW - DEL repatriation flight in a week. Probably sensible where it can to utilise the same aircraft for these Indian politically important flights.

ZNF undertook what may have been a training/recertification for pilots flights as QF1330 on 15 May, travelling way south of Tassie, but has not been used for the last four days nor today thus far.

ZNG has done 1.5 return trips (i.e. three single one ways) MEL - HKG but looks to have been in Melbourne since Saturday afternoon, 15 May 2021.

ZNH returned from its second SYD - DRW - LHR flight in a week on Tuesday afternoon, 18 May but also has sat idle since.

ZNI has undertaken what amounts to a return trip to HKG plus a one way sector MEL - BNE.

ZNJ has done a return trip from LAX plus (similar to ZNF) what may have been a training flight, QF1336 overnight on 14 May but has been in LAX since Saturday 15 May.

ZNK has done one return trip from LAX to BNE.

So while it's variable, the number of block hours must be well below pre-COVID-19 times. This costs QFi a lot of money, although it would make a good profit on any Australian Government hires such as the repatriation flights from DEL and LHR.

Mr Joyce says weekly losses from QFi have reduced to $3 million.

 

[AIRwin]

Here are the links to the media release and market update:

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/media-releases/7978/

https://www.qantasnewsroom.com.au/speeches/qantas-group-market-update-ceo-remarks-2/

 

[henrus]

Mr Joyce says weekly losses from QFi have reduced to $3 million

So Qantas is losing $17,857 per hour on the international network... Ouch.

 

[Berlin]

While I fully understand the difficult situation they are in, I also really feel for the staff. On my last trip over to Australia, all crew and airport staff have been so grateful to be back and I've heard some pretty gruelling stories about how they've made ends meet during the previous couple of months (from international flight crew to shelf packer in a supermarket and so on).

I always try not to whinge too much- not being able to travel is nothing compared to some of the hardship that some folks have been experiencing. Not to even talk about all the people who have lost their lives or loved ones

 

[Franky]

This morning when QFi announced further international cabin crew redundancies (via an Expressions of Interest process expected to 'result in several hundred applications') in addition to 8500 earlier flagged sackings, CEO Alan Joyce said that 'all of the B787-900s are active'.

What he didn't comment upon was the level of utilisation.

B789 VH-ZNA's last flight saw it arrive in SYD on Monday 17 May at 1731 hours as QF22 from NRT.

ZNB has only done a return trip SYD - NRT in the past seven days.

ZNC departed from MEL to LAX on 13 May and hasn't been used since, although that may have been to have maintenance occur in California.

ZND wasn't used between Saturday evening (15 May and the same of Tuesday 18.

ZNE has done more, currently undertaking its second SYD - DRW - DEL repatriation flight in a week. Probably sensible where it can to utilise the same aircraft for these Indian politically important flights.

ZNF undertook what may have been a training/recertification for pilots flights as QF1330 on 15 May, travelling way south of Tassie, but has not been used for the last four days nor today thus far.

ZNG has done 1.5 return trips (i.e. three single one ways) MEL - HKG but looks to have been in Melbourne since Saturday afternoon, 15 May 2021.

ZNH returned from its second SYD - DRW - LHR flight in a week on Tuesday afternoon, 18 May but also has sat idle since.

ZNI has undertaken what amounts to a return trip to HKG plus a one way sector MEL - BNE.

ZNJ has done a return trip from LAX plus (similar to ZNF) what may have been a training flight, QF1336 overnight on 14 May but has been in LAX since Saturday 15 May.

ZNK has done one return trip from LAX to BNE.

So while it's variable, the number of block hours must be well below pre-COVID-19 times. This costs QFi a lot of money, although it would make a good profit on any Australian Government hires such as the repatriation flights from DEL and LHR.

Mr Joyce says weekly losses from QFi have reduced to $3 million.

'these Indian politically important flights' - really?...

 

[Melburnian1]

'these Indian politically important flights' - really?...

Indians are a major immigrant group. Prior to COVID-19 they were in the top three source nations IIRC (excluding NZ that is a different kettle of fish given the reciprocal rights Kiwis and we enjoy).

 

[Melburnian1]

Given that the Greater Sydney lockdown is continuing into a third week, and a 10km travel restriction has been introduced, on Saturday 10 July 2021, QFd is only operating two flights from SYD down to MEL at 0800 and 1300 hours.

With this weekend seeing the end of the July school holidays, that's very few seats.

JQd has just one (at 1610 hours) while VAd 2.0 has a grand total of also two.

On a pre-COVID-19, non-lockdown equivalent Saturday a couple of years ago, there would have been a half hourly timetable between say 0900 and 1200, and hourly (at least) at 0600, 0700, 0800 (perhaps an 0830) and 1300 to 1800, then one or two more flights around 1930 or 2000 to finish for the day.

So on a back-of-the-envelope calculation, QFd is down from about 19 flights to two.

 

[Melburnian1]

It's going back in history but is tomorrow's total airline offering of just five flights from Sydney down to Melbourne even fewer seats were available (say) during the pilots' strike around 1990?

Memories are fickle and sometimes short, but I can't recall having seen such a small number of flights in the last few years on this #1 route.

 

[Melburnian1]

While I fully understand the difficult situation they are in, I also really feel for the staff. On my last trip over to Australia, all crew and airport staff have been so grateful to be back and I've heard some pretty gruelling stories about how they've made ends meet during the previous couple of months (from international flight crew to shelf packer in a supermarket and so on).

I always try not to whinge too much- not being able to travel is nothing compared to some of the hardship that some folks have been experiencing. Not to even talk about all the people who have lost their lives or loved ones

There was a media story - 'The Oz' today - about how A380 QFi pilots are still scraping by with jobs such as driving buses. Not the first time I've seen that suggestion, but it hasn't been featured in media for a few months.

That group of pilots is annoyed that QFi still hasn't given them a 'flight plan' as to when they can resume.

(Of course if the A388s never fly again, as I suspect may occur, it'll unfortunately be a different story).

 

[Melburnian1]

Sunday 11 July 2021 sees conclusion of the July school hols in the three eastern Oz states, but due to the Sydney lockdown, few flights are running to and from there.

From Melbourne, QFd only has QF6714 (empty flight, or special for sportsmen?) at 1030 hours, QF440 at 1200 'high noon', QF454 at 1500 mid afternoon and old stager QF490 at 1930 tonight as its offering to SYD. On a day like today with in normal times many returning to home base, QFd might have had 32 or more 'own metal' flights so three or four is a mammoth cut.

The loss of revenue for one week of these flight reductions (which aren't just MEL - SYD, but the reverse direction and many other routes ex and to Sydney) must be in the low millions of dollars for QFd.

A senior figure in the NSW Government had implied that this lockdown will continue beyond next Friday, so if it's a month long one would think the cost to QAN will easily be above $10 million, and perhaps way more than that. The cost of this to the economy is way more than if we just had pretty much a business as usual approach and learnt to live with this virus as the NSW Health Minister sensibly suggested before the Premier, no doubt egged on by health bureaucrats, overruled him.

What's happening with QFd (and other airline/airport) idle staff? Are some who can't be rostered for duty due to lack of available shifts taking paid annual leave by agreement or even (if due) long service leave, or are they merely accepting the Federal Government's disaster relief payment if eligible?

 

[clifford]

The cost of this to the economy is way more than if we just had pretty much a business as usual approach and learnt to live with this virus as the NSW Health Minister sensibly suggested before the Premier, no doubt egged on by health bureaucrats, overruled him.

Well, you'll soon be able to see how this goes in the UK with 60+% of the population fully vaccinated.

With 10% or so vaccinated here, it would be a little more interesting I think...

 

[Melburnian1]

Well, you'll soon be able to see how this goes in the UK with 60+% of the population fully vaccinated.

With 10% or so vaccinated here, it would be a little more interesting I think...

Yes, up to all of us to get vaccinated, although there seem many reluctant to - at least 17 per cent of the population.

By 14 June 2021, clifford, 69 per cent in the UK have had two vaccine doses (which I assume means 'fully vaccinated'). The picture is better than '60 per cent' that you quoted.

The Oz PM's urging to shorten the gap between the two shots of AZ vaccines to eight weeks seems sensible as it's apparently the case overseas, but the reaction of various medicos et al has been variable, so rather confusing for mere mortals like me.

I was speaking with a health centre vaccination centre in an admittedly low profile location during the week: the staff member said it wasn't busy, which is concerning, but thankfully national vaccination statistics paint a more optimistic picture.