QF's COVID-19 minimal network schedule

[henrus]

'The Australian' online mid-afternoon on Sunday 1 November 2020 reports that the newly reelected Queensland Premier is vowing to keep her State's border shut until 'at least 1 DEcember 2020' to (Greater) Sydneysiders and all Victorians. She will 'review' this at the end of November: to me, that means few flights until perhaps a week into December at the very least, because organising aircraft to again operate, crews and numerous other matters is unlikely to be achieved in 24 hours.

This is all no surprise and if it is a surprise then people have obviously been hiding on a "desert island with no mobile reception" .

The QLD Covid road map updated last Friday the 30th of November clearly states

https://www.covid19.qld.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/127150/DPC7309-COVID-19-Restrictions-roadmap.pdf?nocache-v11

NSW: The 32 Sydney Local Government Areas identified as hotspots to be reviewed monthly

Given it was last reviewed on the 30th then the next review will come at the end of this month.

Victoria: Remains closed until community transmission is under control (including whether there have been any unlinked cases in the previous 28 days).

This means that Victoria could be allowed into QLD sooner than you'd think and possibly around the same time around as Sydney provided nothing major happens this month.

Madness. Costly to so many.

Without going into too much politics, yesterday QLD voted and even areas that heavily rely on tourism like Cairns/Port Douglas/Gold Coast saw the ALP gain even more showing that people support the strong stance on borders. As a Queenslander myself, I've been quite happy with the outcome however I do agree that slightly more notice is needed (and this isn't just a QLD issue).

When we first came out of lockdown and they announced "Queensland is good to go" there was hardly any flights between Brisbane to Cairns because they didn't give airlines enough time to ramp up services. Initially, Qantas had 1-2 flights per week with Jetstar 3-4. It took them about a month to sort it out and over time this has now ramped up to 4 Qantas and 3 Jetstar flights per day but it took time to get there.

I think the biggest issue moving forward with borders opening to VIC (and to a much smaller extent QLD opening to NSW) will be the initial lack of flights. It's clear that Victorians will be looking to travel but if an announcement is made don't expect them to have flights loaded 10 minutes later for services operating the next day/week.

 

[Melburnian1]

]...I think the biggest issue moving forward with borders opening to VIC (and to a much smaller extent QLD opening to NSW) will be the initial lack of flights. It's clear that Victorians will be looking to travel but if an announcement is made don't expect them to have flights loaded 10 minutes later for services operating the next day/week.

One other factor is that while some will be willing and able to book travel immediately, many - whether for business or leisure - need to have time to plan, so if the airlines only become aware on say 28 or 30 November 2020 that a border is 'to open', then they presumably can't schedule and load flights into the computerised booking engine until then, or later, so prospective passengers can't book until this occurs.

So one may find at least for the first week or 10 days after opening that even a smaller number of flights scheduled compared to pre-COVID-19 may be not well patronised.

 

[milehighclub]

I think the biggest issue moving forward with borders opening to VIC (and to a much smaller extent QLD opening to NSW) will be the initial lack of flights. It's clear that Victorians will be looking to travel but if an announcement is made don't expect them to have flights loaded 10 minutes later for services operating the next day/week.

I think the speed of which this is done will continue to increase in the future. Looking at the last few announcements it took 12 days from announcement to flying for CBR-OOL and 9 days from the announcement of CBR-LST until the first flight commences (6th Nov).

 

[justinbrett]

I booked a NTL-BNE flight on Friday within an hour of the announcement - at the time the Qantas Group offering was just a single daily JQ flight, by that afternoon QLK had added a daily service for NTL-BNE.

The CBR flights are a bad example as these are new routes, resumption of MEL routes will happen much faster.

 

[milehighclub]

QF has announced PER-HBA to commence until the end of January

 

[Melburnian1]

QF has announced PER-HBA to commence until the end of January

With the booming mining sector in WA, may be viable over Christmas, although as with some other new routes, it isn't daily: no flight each way from what I can see on Tu, We or Th.

So skewed towards a 'long weekend', the highest demand. Wonder if (say) the traffic will mostly originate in PER and hence some flights may be fairly empty in the non-peak direction?

It's an expensive short holiday for two people but plenty of miners are high income.[/QUOTE]

 

[jakeseven7]

I think the speed of which this is done will continue to increase in the future. Looking at the last few announcements it took 12 days from announcement to flying for CBR-OOL and 9 days from the announcement of CBR-LST until the first flight commences (6th Nov).

CBR LST? I must have missed that announcement?

 

[Melburnian1]

Given its 100th anniversary, QF is using the line of it being 'the national carrier' even more than usual. If I hear it again I may grimace.

Today (Tuesday 17 November 2020), of the 14 scheduled international passenger flight departures from SYD, four are to the USA.

American Airlines and Delta each have a flight to LAX while United Airlines has one to LAX and the same to SFO.

JQ205 at 1440 this afternoon (to AKL) is the sole QF Group international flight ex SYD.

Singapore Airlines seems to be increasing its flights to SIN. Two today, plus one from low cost subsidiary Scoot.

As a publicly listed company QF is entitled to operate flights when and if it chooses, but gives the impression it's unwilling to operate QFi flights unless there's a Commonwealth Government subsidy involved.

I haven't read that these three USA carriers are receiving USA government payments (subsidies) for their international flights to/from Oz. Is this correct?

 

[jpp42]

On International
Could there be duty-of-care issues regarding the employees' health in the USA? For American carriers, the employees are having to deal with the COVID situation anyway, going to Australia is obviously of no risk to them. But the other way around, with Qantas having to send employees into a huge COVID risk area, they would have to work really hard to ensure layover procedures at the US ports are safe. Obviously less of a problem for Asian ports.

Also, if QF were to operate to a high COVID risk area like the USA, what happens to crews that have to overnight in the USA and therefore increase their exposure quite a bit , are they subject to 14-day quarantine on return to Australia (which could possibly be cut short if they operate another flight out)? If QF employees became a vector to local transmission, it would be a huge PR problem. Meanwhile, US crews are subject to quarantine and are arranged to depart on the next available service once their required rest is met, so even though they are a danger to the Australian population during their short time here, the risks are quite a lot mitigated compared to a QF crew member that will need to re-enter the community at some point.

Also, regarding profit potential with reduced passenger capacity and focus on freight - are there are differences in configuration that may apply?- Can Singapore and US carriers carry more underfloor cargo more economically? It seems like it shouldn't be a big difference as QF's 787-9's ought to be good for cargo (and United flies the 787-9 too), but I don't know the details.

On Domestic
Going back to the subject line of "Minimal network schedule," I note that towards mid-December, QF is operating a fairly extensive MEL-SYD schedule, getting back to half-hourly a some times of day. Does anyone know what bookings are like on those? I am wondering what the chances of significant consolidation are (I assume fairly high). While I'm sure plenty of people will be taking advantage of the Vic/NSW border reopening, it seems hard to believe a half-hourly schedule will be warranted that soon.

 

[jakeseven7]

Could there be duty-of-care issues regarding the employees' health in the USA? For American carriers, the employees are having to deal with the COVID situation anyway, going to Australia is obviously of no risk to them. But the other way around, with Qantas having to send employees into a huge COVID risk area, they would have to work really hard to ensure layover procedures at the US ports are safe. Obviously less of a problem for Asian ports.

Our insurer is unable to cover us sending employees to some countries at the moment, like the US.

I'm sure Qantas have much better deals / arrangements than us but still if you were a Aussie staff member would you fly to the US?! Right now?

 

[NSun]

Qantas has done some cargo only flights to Asia plus the US flights to store the A380s and a couple of 787s - you'd imagine there'd be something insurance wise. But obviously it'd only be pilots and maybe they'd get a hotel very close to or at the airport.

 

[Melburnian1]

...On Domestic
Going back to the subject line of "Minimal network schedule," I note that towards mid-December, QF is operating a fairly extensive MEL-SYD schedule, getting back to half-hourly a some times of day. Does anyone know what bookings are like on those? I am wondering what the chances of significant consolidation are (I assume fairly high). While I'm sure plenty of people will be taking advantage of the Vic/NSW border reopening, it seems hard to believe a half-hourly schedule will be warranted that soon.

QF has implied bookings are good but I share your view. From early December in 'normal' times, doesn't business travel wind down as various executives and staff go on holidays?

The Sydney to Melbourne route each way once had 250 flights a week (probably as recently as early February 2020). QF has stated that it will now be 75 flights a week, although I haven't gone to the bookings website and sampled a particular week to count the flights.

The uncertainty about whether State Premiers will suddenly close a border (as with SA) or announce a closure when passengers were in mid flight (WA, affecting passengers from SA) or Victoria (48 hour ban on travellers from SA) must be affecting bookings on all forms of transport: air, rental cars, trains and coaches. Few want to be 'caught' having to unexpectedly quarantine for a fortnight.

 

[I love to travel]

Qantas today changed my Xmas eve Bne to Adl flight from 7pm to 9am and AFAIK that is the only direct flight that day and all others have been canned.

 

[Melburnian1]

Qantas today changed my Xmas eve Bne to Adl flight from 7pm to 9am and AFAIK that is the only direct flight that day and all others have been canned.

Surprising, because how does QFd "know" that the SA population will still be in 'lockdown' on 24 December 2020?

Christmas (not 'Xmas') Eve should be a peak demand day, not as high as say Holy Thursday at Easter, but significant.

 

[milehighclub]

are they subject to 14-day quarantine on return to Australia

Crew are subject to the 14-day quarantine, but this can be done at home, or if they wish to isolate away from their family, a hotel is provided. If they leave for another trip, the 14 day starts again. I imagine it is very tolling as you are potentially spending up to 8 - 10 weeks by yourself as overseas you are also confined to your room.

 

[jakeseven7]

Surprising, because how does QFd "know" that the SA population will still be in 'lockdown' on 24 December 2020?

Christmas (not 'Xmas') Eve should be a peak demand day, not as high as say Holy Thursday at Easter, but significant.

Well after todays bombshell QLD should be up and open to SA within a few days if they were rational

But can you blame any airline for not assuming anything positive with QLD/WA border rationales?

 

[Melburnian1]

...But can you blame any airline for not assuming anything positive with QLD/WA border rationales?

It must be incredibly stressful working in rostering or timetabling in any interstate passenger transport business.

As IIRC jb747 said, apparently one can't just bring back a plane instantly into passenger carrying service. Those staff undertaking such tasks also have to be rostered if insufficient have been on deck during the virus period.

So many sudden 'imposed' changes completely out of the control of QFd or other companies. Premiers need to realise the cost to jobs and economic confidence, and (OT) other issues like the elderly at home who are too scared to visit hospitals for appointments even when they have serious (non-viral) medical problems.

 

[jakeseven7]

It must be incredibly stressful working in rostering or timetabling in any interstate passenger transport business.

As IIRC jb747 said, apparently one can't just bring back a plane instantly into passenger carrying service. Those staff undertaking such tasks also have to be rostered if insufficient have been on deck during the virus period.

So many sudden 'imposed' changes completely out of the control of QFd or other companies. Premiers need to realise the cost to jobs and economic confidence, and (OT) other issues like the elderly at home who are too scared to visit hospitals for appointments even when they have serious (non-viral) medical problems.

I cannot even imagine...

I mean look at the SA debacle, all airlines would have chopped their services right back (Again) and will now have to sit around with their finger on the trigger to add them back on when the state premiers get around to organising their next media conference....

Nightmare....

 

[oz_mark]

So many sudden 'imposed' changes completely out of the control of QFd or other companies. Premiers need to realise the cost to jobs and economic confidence, and (OT) other issues like the elderly at home who are too scared to visit hospitals for appointments even when they have serious (non-viral) medical problems.

With one notable exception, I don't think the premiers care.

The countries got a shared chequebook.....

 

[Melburnian1]

I cannot even imagine...

I mean look at the SA debacle, all airlines would have chopped their services right back (Again) and will now have to sit around with their finger on the trigger to add them back on when the state premiers get around to organising their next media conference....

Nightmare....

In the QF/JQ/VA respective delay/cancellation threads, I've noted the SYD to ADL westbound cancellations for Sunday 22 November 2020. IIRC of 11 flights in total that were meant to operate, it's down to four. And yet the lockdown is being lifted 'early' at midnight on Saturday 21 due to it being 'based on a pizza worker's lie' to paraphrase media reports.