Reduced AMEX earn rates from April 2019

[JohnK]

Unpaid leave? I need the travel experience more than I need a few weeks pay.

With that many points, you would be travelling largely for free so you could argue that you're breaking even.

I've been taking 3+ weeks unpaid leave for over 10 years and I can definitely say the extra few weeks leave are beneficial to mind and body.

 

[Pointy Bird]

My balance is in 8 digits, wife has 7 digit total as well.
Have spoken to Amex Sydney office 3 times expressing my disappointment- they are now having another look at it.
Agree I will probably accept Centurion to see if my relationship manager can help with doubling even though they formally refused to do this.
The large point balance may be why they are less inclined to double my points.

We burn 2.5m points per annum on F flights to Europe 3-4 times yearly. Will not be able to use our points with 3-4 years unless we gift more to family ( as other generous people here are doing). Until this is sorted out, I am reducing my Amex use so that I am not paying for points I may never use. I can always take more leave ( self employed) but I do not wish to travel any more than this until I retire in 20 years - I was hoping to bank a huge number of points for my retirement, but I guess that will not be happening now.

 

[Saltywings]

I was hoping to bank a huge number of points for my retirement, but I guess that will not be happening now.

This devaluation is an incisive example of the informal AFF adage that the only points with value are those that are spent. 20 years is extremely long and risky timeframe when it comes to a non-appreciating asset.

 

[GoldCanyon340]

.... I do not wish to travel any more than this until I retire in 20 years - I was hoping to bank a huge number of points for my retirement, but I guess that will not be happening now.

That is an unworkable strategy. It assumes point conversion will never change or you will be grandfathered in for every change to terms and conditions. I got my doubling of points but only plan for a maximum forward window of 24 months.

 

[potm]

My balance is in 8 digits, wife has 7 digit total as well.
Have spoken to Amex Sydney office 3 times expressing my disappointment- they are now having another look at it.
Agree I will probably accept Centurion to see if my relationship manager can help with doubling even though they formally refused to do this.
The large point balance may be why they are less inclined to double my points.

We burn 2.5m points per annum on F flights to Europe 3-4 times yearly. Will not be able to use our points with 3-4 years unless we gift more to family ( as other generous people here are doing). Until this is sorted out, I am reducing my Amex use so that I am not paying for points I may never use. I can always take more leave ( self employed) but I do not wish to travel any more than this until I retire in 20 years - I was hoping to bank a huge number of points for my retirement, but I guess that will not be happening now.

This is why I mentioned in the ATO thread that the more points I have, the less cost I’m willing to incur to gain more points. Even putting aside the inevitable devaluations, the cost of funds for such a long period is substantial.

 

[Pointy Bird]

This devaluation is an incisive example of the informal AFF adage that the only points with value are those that are spent. 20 years is extremely long and risky timeframe when it comes to a non-appreciating asset.

I agree with you Saltywings (and others) - to an extent.
Many of us put funds in superannuation - and some of the rules have changed.
Playing the game - as we all do here, does involve some risks ( devaluations) but so far, it has worked out well for many reading this thread.

Although I may not end up with as many points for my retirement as I had hoped, there will be more than enough...

Despite this extreme devaluation, my guess is that it will still be worth "paying" for points with Amex. I will later do some formal calculations ( and post it) but I suspect that a first class return to Europe (Singapore Airlines) will cost circa $5000 depending on what % of expenses can be tax deductible. Far better than paying for the flight.

 

[daft009]

@Pointy Bird you do have a charge card as well don't you?

 

[Pointy Bird]

@Pointy Bird you do have a charge card as well don't you?

No - only Explorer + Edge and wife has Explorer of her own.
When I move to Centurion and cancel these 3 cards I will "save" the $1000 these 3 cards cost per annum. I have never actually used the travel credits (shameful!).

 

[cove]

My two sons together with their +1 seem quite willing and able to use any of our excess point/miles.
Latest idea involves a football match in Europe by making a 4 day weekend here.
We ran up 8 figures on our Amex Ultimates and have enjoyed the benefits. Times are changing though and we now do more with a favourite Visa that pays on everything so we are closing in on 8 figures in 2019.

 

[pauly7]

I've been taking 3+ weeks unpaid leave for over 10 years and I can definitely say the extra few weeks leave are beneficial to mind and body.

Sounds amazing JK! Now to convince my CEO....

 

[Saltywings]

Many of us put funds in superannuation - and some of the rules have changed.
Playing the game - as we all do here, does involve some risks ( devaluations) but so far, it has worked out well for many reading this thread.

Likewise I agree with this (regarding banking points) - to an extent. The key difference is that superannuation (which, if we just proxy this to listed and unlisted investments) are by definition, asset classes that are generally accepted to go up over time and often are gifted the magic of compounding. So while super rules are on shaky ground (hello ALP) and nothing's ever certain, we'd always be playing the game in a way that underscores that core assumption: that assets go up with time.

With points as an asset class, literally the opposite is true. If I did a straw poll on this forum it would surprise me if a single experienced AFFer will think a point 20 years from now is worth the same as it is now. Heck, that business/airline might not even be around in 20 years!

That said, congrats on the massive balance and I'm sure you'll be alright for quite some time to come! With a cent, you could even transfer to Qantas and that way they'd never expire

 

[burmans]

My balance is in 8 digits, wife has 7 digit total as well.
Have spoken to Amex Sydney office 3 times expressing my disappointment- they are now having another look at it.
Agree I will probably accept Centurion to see if my relationship manager can help with doubling even though they formally refused to do this.
The large point balance may be why they are less inclined to double my points.

We burn 2.5m points per annum on F flights to Europe 3-4 times yearly. Will not be able to use our points with 3-4 years unless we gift more to family ( as other generous people here are doing). Until this is sorted out, I am reducing my Amex use so that I am not paying for points I may never use. I can always take more leave ( self employed) but I do not wish to travel any more than this until I retire in 20 years - I was hoping to bank a huge number of points for my retirement, but I guess that will not be happening now.

Not all FF points expire in 3-4 years, its actually closer to 5 for SQ, the initial 3 years can be extended 6 months, the restriction is that they must be booked (they are not required to be flown) in that period, you can then book 11 months out and my experience is that this can be changed almost up to the flight date beyond the 11 months but YMMV.

Have you considered moving what you will use in this period to SQ/CX, move some more to programs without that restriction to at least get some of the benefit before they devalue?

 

[Pointy Bird]

Not all FF points expire in 3-4 years, its actually closer to 5 for SQ, the initial 3 years can be extended 6 months, the restriction is that they must be booked (they are not required to be flown) in that period, you can then book 11 months out and my experience is that this can be changed almost up to the flight date beyond the 11 months but YMMV.

Have you considered moving what you will use in this period to SQ/CX, move some more to programs without that restriction to at least get some of the benefit before they devalue?

Thanks Burmans. I was aware that SQ points can be extended, but I did not know this can end up nearly 5 years.
I looked at other airlines in some detail, but I really do favour SQ for availability, number of locations in Europe, Service etc. I think an SQ point is worth more than other airline points.

 

[albyd]

Super is an asset that assuming we make the right choices with it, will appreciate over time (subject to a political overlay).

MR points are a currency we don't own and is subject to both changes of Amex policy as well as airline changes. Even if AMEX makes no changes for long periods of time, most popular airlines seem to be devaluing by approx. 10% every 2 years. It's a great idea to stockpile points for what will be for most of us a big expense (travel) during a long retirement. Only issue is, especially if you're paying a surcharge to earn more of them, it could be a bad investment if it's devalued at 10% bi-annually for the next 20 years.

I managed to transfer to SPG the day before the gate shut. I'm slowly burning through my points. Would like them to last for as long as possible given accommodation is expensive but the reality is I don't trust Marriott so will likely use them in the next few years. I think the same principle applies to all points currencies. YMMV.

 

[jonboixxx]

"Dear Retailer,

Here at Vicinity we strive to deliver value for our customers.

As part of discussions with AMEX to ensure we are providing the best value possible to our retailers, we have been advised a new rate of 1.65% incl. GST effective 20th March 2019

To those who utilised AMEX at the higher rate, a refund of the difference between the surcharge at the old rate of 3.025% incl. GST and the new rate will be processed in the next few days. This applied to payments made prior to the 20th of March 2019."

I received this from Vicinity Centres (landlord) this week. Hopefully a sign that AMEX is more amenable to reduced merchant fees.

 

[potm]

If the cost of a flight to Europe is $5k in points now. Instead of saving the points for retirement in 20 years, that $5k could be put into super instead.
If it manages to double once every 10 years in real terms, you’ll have $20k to spend on the flight instead. You’ll also not have to worry about availability, earn points on the booking and pretty quickly qualify for PPS status and not have to worry about points expiring any more.

Of course super rules and investment returns are uncertain over a 20 year period but it’s a much safer bet than holding your capital in FF points.

 

[Pointy Bird]

To fly to Europe from Australia with Singapore Airlines in First Class using points requires:

326,000 points and $279


To earn 326,000 points requires an Amex spend using Centurion Card of $260,800 (1.25 points per $).

To earn 326,000 points requires an Amex spend using Platinum Card of $289,778 (1.125 points per $).


Amex fees vary widely and may end up falling. However, I will assume a 2% cost. I know it is possible to pay ATO at less than this.

To spend $260,800 on a Centurion card will incur a fee of $5216.

To spend $289,778 on a Platinum card will incur a fee of $5796.


Adding SQ fee of $279 results in a total cost for flying 1stclass return to Europe of:


Centurion $5495

Platinum $ 6075


This is a worse case scenario assuming all card transactions are personal expenses. If all expenses are business related and you are in the highest tax bracket, the cost falls to:


Centurion $2991

Platinum $3293


The above is a best case scenario and assumes 48% tax rate of the credit card fees.


Depending on what proportion of expenses are business related will determine what the actual cost will be, but if half of an individual’s expenses are business related, the cost will be circa $4500 – still reasonable value depending on your circumstances.

 

[Saltywings]

If the cost of a flight to Europe is $5k in points now. Instead of saving the points for retirement in 20 years, that $5k could be put into super instead.
If it manages to double once every 10 years in real terms, you’ll have $20k to spend on the flight instead. You’ll also not have to worry about availability, earn points on the booking and pretty quickly qualify for PPS status and not have to worry about points expiring any more.

Of course super rules and investment returns are uncertain over a 20 year period but it’s a much safer bet than holding your capital in FF points.

It's funny how I gave these kinds of examples in the points collectors anonymous thread and seemed like I was the iconoclast in that thread.

 

[Pointy Bird]

It's funny how I gave these kinds of examples in the points collectors anonymous thread and seemed like I was the iconoclast in that thread.

I will use my Amex largely on business expenses from now on, so my cost will be about $3000 per return F flight.
Agree with future uncertainties issues. However, in the future when it is even harder than now to earn points, will we be wishing we had put away more points in the good old days?

 

[Saltywings]

I will use my Amex largely on business expenses from now on, so my cost will be about $3000 per return F flight.
Agree with future uncertainties issues. However, in the future when it is even harder than now to earn points, will we be wishing we had put away more points in the good old days?

Not entirely, because those points earned in the good ol days will be worth 10, 20, 50% (and so on) less if redeemed today depending on time elapsed. The sucky part is that these 'rule changes' can and often do affect existing as well as future earn as well as existing & future balances.

There really isn't any escape. As such, I think ultimately we just have to play by whatever game rules are in effect at the time and make the most of it.