Suspect majority of customers will blink and miss this announcement/ not understand / not care. In our little circles yes there will be a higher than normal outflow of points I’m sure!
My comment was on those with larger balances who will in the main be quite aware of the change by April 2019. Hence I believe the points transferred will be massive. Some with truly large balances will possibly want to move points to several programs unless they are just happy with QFF (poor value program IMO) or Velocity (seems to be becoming less useful).
Sure there will be "mums and dads" who will miss it, but I was not considering them.
Having to clean out both Velocity this year and Amex MR Accounts by April 2019 for both myself and my wife's accounts is going cause me (as it will for many) some careful thinking about what flights I will redeem on KF/*Alliance over the next 3.5 years (Though having longer to actually fly by). With some points already in our two KF accounts I am not sure that I want to have a combined two KF account balance of more than say 2 million points on 15 April 2019.
Paying the points to extend for the extra year may be part of this as the cost is still a lot less than 50%.
That I am 58 and am reducing the % of year worked at present with probably dropping to zero, or near zero in 2 years, might mean that I do a lot of flying 2021/212 to use up more points than normal.
Originally I was planning to use up some of almost 2 Million QFF points I have with some RTW awards about then. So might just have to let those points keep growing unused and use KF points instead. Due to the ease of acquiring QF points by churn and burn CC, as well as other means, the QFF points keep arriving despite it being my thirds and lowest ranked FF program. But the QFF program is expensive points wise and fuel tax punitive and so the points mainly only get use when I cannot fly *A (availability, route, time etc).
Normally I am happy in J, with some occasional F flights for fun. so may have to think about more F flights too.
Ah...First Wold Problems!