Rex to fly between Australian capital cities

[PineappleSkip]

$299 business fares that didn't exist prior to Rex's entry (slashing J prices by well over half) and running planes practically empty (or completely empty in one case) is the sort of stuff a "competition regulator" should be investigating.

$299 business fares strikes me as a blow for competition rather than an anticompetitive activity. And I don't understand what is anticompetitive about Rex having empty seats. The scenario is a new entry to mainline routes trying to break into a duopoly where QF tends to dominate the market.

cheers skip

 

[HS-TQE]

REX having a 'cry' that Virgin are 'working with Qantas' to 'crush them'. Goes running crying to the 'umpire'

Rex appeals to umpire as aviation dogfight gets personal

Regional airline Rex has accused Qantas and Virgin of dumping capacity on the domestic market in order to crush the smaller airline.

www.smh.com.au

 

[Saab34]

Virgin matching Rex’s prices is no different to retailers matching other retailers prices. They are not undercutting them they are matching. They are trying to be remain competive one could argue, as they have said.

 

[dajop]

REX having a 'cry' that Virgin are 'working with Qantas' to 'crush them'. Goes running crying to the 'umpire'

Rex appeals to umpire as aviation dogfight gets personal

Regional airline Rex has accused Qantas and Virgin of dumping capacity on the domestic market in order to crush the smaller airline.

www.smh.com.au

[Amateur airline no idea hat on]If they want to go down this anti competitive path, they should forget MEL/SYD and pick holes in their competitors schedules. Their arguably most successful capital city flight is MEL-ADL almost in the middle of a 3 hr gap not served by VA, QF or JQ. Pick similar holes on other routes (even MEL/PER or ADL/SYD or other routes) and you get traffic by being the only one flying at that time. Then if suddenly QF, for example, shifts or adds flights to match closely the ZL times which kills loads on those flights, they might have an argument?

 

[jakeseven7]

REX having a 'cry' that Virgin are 'working with Qantas' to 'crush them'. Goes running crying to the 'umpire'

Rex appeals to umpire as aviation dogfight gets personal

Regional airline Rex has accused Qantas and Virgin of dumping capacity on the domestic market in order to crush the smaller airline.

www.smh.com.au

This has already been thrown in the bin by the ACCC and will be again. It’s completely baseless.

Meanwhile AFF members are rolling in the mud like pigs with all these cheap fares - our business is now flying more than we were pre-pandemic and it’s costing less! And our deal with QF is getting us a kicker of a rebate too.

 

[Mattg]

$299 business fares strikes me as a blow for competition rather than an anticompetitive activity. And I don't understand what is anticompetitive about Rex having empty seats. The scenario is a new entry to mainline routes trying to break into a duopoly where QF tends to dominate the market.

cheers skip

Rex complains to the ACCC so frequently that it seems to be a core part of their strategy. Perhaps Rex would be better off directing their efforts towards advertising their new services and implementing a loyalty program.

Most people I know either don't know Rex exists on the mainline routes, or choose to fly QF/VA anyway because they have a better product (particularly on the ground in terms of lounges, etc.) and good frequent flyer programs.

 

[henrus]

Rex complains to the ACCC so frequently that it seems to be a core part of their strategy. Perhaps Rex would be better off directing their efforts towards advertising their new services and implementing a loyalty program.

It's free to complain to the ACCC, actually advertising like the QF/VA billboards that you see around airports costs money, something rex is just bleeding instead.

Most people I know either don't know Rex exists on the mainline routes, or choose to fly QF/VA anyway because they have a better product (particularly on the ground in terms of lounges, etc.) and good frequent flyer programs.

The other problem is they aren't that attractive when people search... Searching the four largest online travel agents in Australia (webjet, Expedia, flight centre and booking.com/gotogate) isn't great:

WebJet shows Jetstar cheapest and then Virgin (cheapest Rex fare is $99):



Expedia shows cheapest first by default so all Jetstar then Virgin and then Rex (Cheapest Rex fare is $121):



Go To Gate sorts by recommended which shows Jetstar first then Qantas (go to gate didn't show any Virgin flights) (Cheapest Rex is $99)




Flight Centre sorts by departure time oddly all the Jetstar flights are really expensive (starting at $88) and the Virgin flights are cheapest so they get a little cheapest banner. (Cheapest Rex is $121).



Anyway in all situations, Rex isn't the cheapest and on all options, Jetstar then Virgin is cheapest (except go to gate which oddly didn't show VA).

Ironically on Rex's own site, the fares are actually $79 however as people don't know about them they're unlikely to go direct to rex's site to start their search. I've pointed this out a while ago (I think before flights started) but I'd argue it's now even more dire and it's very clear this is rex shooting themself in the foot as ExpertFlyer shows the cheapest fare they publish is $83.33 (plus taxes of ~$25).



Interestingly they haven't made this same mistake in the business cabin with the cheapest business cabin fare published $246.97 from SYD to MEL.

 

[Saab34]

The change your booking online platform is still not working. It stopped working mid December.

 

[Melburnian1]

I checked some passenger loads (in Y only) on ZL and QFd today (Friday 30 April) from MEL to SYD northbound.

For flights that depart after 1500 hours, these may dramatically understate patronage. AFF staffer Mattg has extensively written about that.

ZL010 (0600 hours) 11
ZL018 (0700 hours) 20
ZL042 (1000 hours) 64
ZL102 (1200 'high noon') 92
ZL142 (1600 hours) 96
ZL152 (1700 hours) 20

QF432 (1000 hours) 97 - a B738 not A332/A333
QF422 (1200 'high noon') 3 - again, a B738. I find 'three passengers' difficult to believe but years ago I was on an AN flight MEL - CBR with 11, so it's possible, though unlikely.

I had no more free searches so couldn't look at VAd.

For the four ZL flights between 0600 and noon that have departed MEL, the load factor based on 168 economy seats was 27.82 per cent.

In practice ZL appear to block off row 30 at the back, presumably for cabin crew but one still counts these seats as 'available'.

Note that at 1000 ZL is reasonable against QFd, but the latter today had a half hourly flight frequency between 0600 and 1100 hours (i.e. no 1130 hours as it moved into the day's lunchtime).

If one can take the QFd tally as gospel for its noon flight, then ZL is streets ahead at that time.

Since ZL passengers are mainly leisure travellers and there are very few international flights from SYD at the traditional 1000 - 1200 noon that passengers from MEL in 2019 and previous calendar years would connect to - I've done that a few times - there's only 'OD' leisure users plus maybe a sprinkling of connecting passengers to ZL rural NSW locations, and maybe a few small businessmen trying to keep costs down, as prospective travellers.

Clearly ZL travellers don't like rising at 0330 for an 0600 or 0700 hours flight ex MEL.

I bet public servants by and large find ways to avoid BFOD so they can keep travelling on QFd, or less often, VAd.

It will take a while to find the definitive answer through BITRE but I am surmising that passenger numbers on all airlines on the premier MEL - SYD route remain hugely down on a couple of years ago. No 'four times an hour' QFd schedules during weekday morning and afternoon peaks, and reluctance of Australians to cross state borders in the numbers that collectively we used to in 2019 and prior to that.

A 28 per cent whY load factor (probably worse in business class despite the A$299 one way fare) is not sustainable. If it's like this on a Friday outside of school holidays, what's it like on a Saturday, Tuesday or Wednesday, typically the quieter days of most weeks?

 

[milehighclub]

ZL152 (1700 hours) 20

I see full on all 4 flights on QF from 1630 till 1830. JQ at 1715 is also full.

QF422 (

This was cancelled and the QF422 was an 0830 departure.

QF440 was the 1200 and was over 120 pax.

 

[muppet]

...
I bet public servants by and large find ways to avoid BFOD so they can keep travelling on QFd, or less often, VAd.

Big customers have corporate contracts. So what you see on airline websites as the cheapest fare has no relationship to what the corporate customer sees as the cheapest fare for them.

For any given flight, the cheapest fare for you, BHP and the government could be three different airlines.

Not mention that I suspect Rex has zero corporate accounts.

 

[jakeseven7]

I checked some passenger loads (in Y only) on ZL and QFd today (Friday 30 April) from MEL to SYD northbound.

For flights that depart after 1500 hours, these may dramatically understate patronage. AFF staffer Mattg has extensively written about that.

ZL010 (0600 hours) 11
ZL018 (0700 hours) 20
ZL042 (1000 hours) 64
ZL102 (1200 'high noon') 92
ZL142 (1600 hours) 96
ZL152 (1700 hours) 20

QF432 (1000 hours) 97 - a B738 not A332/A333
QF422 (1200 'high noon') 3 - again, a B738. I find 'three passengers' difficult to believe but years ago I was on an AN flight MEL - CBR with 11, so it's possible, though unlikely.

I had no more free searches so couldn't look at VAd.

For the four ZL flights between 0600 and noon that have departed MEL, the load factor based on 168 economy seats was 27.82 per cent.

In practice ZL appear to block off row 30 at the back, presumably for cabin crew but one still counts these seats as 'available'.

Note that at 1000 ZL is reasonable against QFd, but the latter today had a half hourly flight frequency between 0600 and 1100 hours (i.e. no 1130 hours as it moved into the day's lunchtime).

If one can take the QFd tally as gospel for its noon flight, then ZL is streets ahead at that time.

Since ZL passengers are mainly leisure travellers and there are very few international flights from SYD at the traditional 1000 - 1200 noon that passengers from MEL in 2019 and previous calendar years would connect to - I've done that a few times - there's only 'OD' leisure users plus maybe a sprinkling of connecting passengers to ZL rural NSW locations, and maybe a few small businessmen trying to keep costs down, as prospective travellers.

Clearly ZL travellers don't like rising at 0330 for an 0600 or 0700 hours flight ex MEL.

I bet public servants by and large find ways to avoid BFOD so they can keep travelling on QFd, or less often, VAd.

It will take a while to find the definitive answer through BITRE but I am surmising that passenger numbers on all airlines on the premier MEL - SYD route remain hugely down on a couple of years ago. No 'four times an hour' QFd schedules during weekday morning and afternoon peaks, and reluctance of Australians to cross state borders in the numbers that collectively we used to in 2019 and prior to that.

A 28 per cent whY load factor (probably worse in business class despite the A$299 one way fare) is not sustainable. If it's like this on a Friday outside of school holidays, what's it like on a Saturday, Tuesday or Wednesday, typically the quieter days of most weeks?

BFOD is so unbelievably easy to work your way around and fly the carrier of your choice, yes.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Rex now $39 MEL-SYD

All jet routes on sale.

 

[henrus]

Rex now $39 MEL-SYD

All jet routes on sale.

Breaking that down...

$3.55 is GST
$25.85 is the domestic service charge tax
total taxes = $29.4

On a $39 fare that means that Rex is pocketing just $9.60 as the actual fare. At this rate, they're practically giving seats away. Yes, Jetstar has $44 fares but they've got a range of add ons and buy onboard menus to help plus they actually fill planes.

 

[jakeseven7]

Rex now $39 MEL-SYD

All jet routes on sale.

The funeral of this route is edging closer I fear.

 

[Aussie_flyer]

Had a nice flight with Rex, Mel-ool the other day with 119 in Y and 6 in J. Ran on time, had a coffee and some cookies on board. Pleasant crew. Nice experience.

There is a large billboard promoting Rex outside the airport at OOL. Going back tonight on what looks like a fairly busy flight.

 

[Melburnian1]

Had a nice flight with Rex, Mel-ool the other day with 119 in Y and 6 in J. Ran on time, had a coffee and some cookies on board. Pleasant crew. Nice experience.

That's a load factor of just above 71 per cent (based on 180 seats). More like it.

ZL looks to have had exactly 100 whY passengers on ZL437, the (presumably) just pushed back 1145 hours 2 May 2021 MEL - ADL.

ZL491 at 1955 hours mid evening on the same route has 112 whY passengers showing, but as noted above this may underestimate traveller numbers.

ZL042 at 1000 this morning from MEL to SYD appears to have had only 37 economy travellers booked, while ZL018 at 0700 hours ex MEL for SYD had just 13.

ZL142 (the 1600 hours MEL - SYD, which only runs on Su Fr) has 107 in whY, while the earlier 1200 'high noon' ZL102 had only 97. I'm guessing this is still not profitable but it's better than 13 or 37 patrons.

Competitor QFd lacked an 0700 hours this morning from MEL to SYD, but its 0630 hours QF406 seems to have had only 65 in whY (B738) while its next northbound, QAF418 at 0800 hours had only 68 whY passengers. These last two ZL and two QFd flights are off peak but two years ago would have had (for QFd) quite a few passengers connecting in Sydney to international flights, plus perhaps international tourists on whirlwind package tours.

Northbound ZL680 (1415 hours MEL to OOL, non school holidays) has 85 in whY showing but again as it has yet to depart there may be more turn up. The Sunday morning 0830 hours on the same route (ZL658) looks to have had 83 in whY.

I haven't checked ADL - MEL ZL eastbound loads but it seems to be doing reasonably well on MEL - ADL westbound, as it's not the first time I or others have had a squiz and found a similar loading pattern.

However passenger numbers for the MEL - SYD route are much lower than we were used to pre-virus.

This will be adversely affecting not just ZL but QFd and VAd. With business travel having declined a lot on what was by far the first ranking route for high fares, the downwards effect on QFd yields will be very large. Three airlines on MEL - SYD must also be putting some pressure on QFd and VAd economy fares.

 

[HS-TQE]

Rex now $39 MEL-SYD

All jet routes on sale.

Surely ZL's days on the SYD-MEL route must be numbered by this point.

Would be great to be proven wrong, but I suspect I won't, it's a matter of how long they can sustain those losses.

As stated earlier, ZL may have better luck on the leisure routes (or leisure times on other main trunk routes) and perhaps re-packaging J similar to USA's Spirit Airlines 'Big Front Seat' style unbundled Business service.

 

[Aussie_flyer]

Just flew in from OOL to MEL with a solid load of 144 (137 y, 7 j). Another pleasant experience.

Don't think they're going to abandon the mel/syd route anytime soon but I suspect frequency could be adjusted when they announce whatever their next routes might be.

 

[Melburnian1]

These numbers can’t go on for months let alone years however I can’t see anything really changing?
VA/QF/JQ are not going to reduce capacity for a couple of years perhaps when the markets starts to flatten.

The next big problem on the horizon for them is Jetstar 787s onto domestic, Virgin bringing in another 10 aircraft, and Jetstar Japan sending in A320s. Then you have QF using widebodies on domestic.

They are doing terrible now how will be cope when all that capacity arrives in the next two quarters which is 25-30 aircraft worth about to drop.

The better question would be 'based on current passenger volumes that seem to be a lot lower than two years ago, how will all three - QF/VA/ZL - fare unless more locals decide to fly?'