Rex to fly between Australian capital cities

[Saab34]

I’m not sure if those QF numbers are accurate even post departure? We know Rex and Virgin are. Unless it’s just VA doing well on many routes and QF is holding its margin resulting in lower loads

 

[jase05]

I’m not sure if those QF numbers are accurate even post departure? We know Rex and Virgin are. Unless it’s just VA doing well on many routes and QF is holding its margin resulting in lower loads

I must admit I’ve been pretty surprised at how full most VA flights are that I’ve been on recently.
It’s great to see

 

[Saab34]

Some interesting signs indeed around Virgins strategy and future prospects. Signs appear good. Lounges are full.

 

[1022]

I’m not sure if those QF numbers are accurate even post departure? We know Rex and Virgin are. Unless it’s just VA doing well on many routes and QF is holding its margin resulting in lower loads

Purely anecdotal but I’ve also been on a number of modestly filled QF flights of late and 100% full VA flights. QF prices have been high generally, so maybe their efforts to maintain yield with high fares in the hope that fanboys (and I’m one) will book regardless is a bit risky. So ZL’s awful numbers on SYD-MEL aren’t necessarily unique to them...though clearly also not sustainable

 

[dajop]

From what I could see, ZL680 from MEL to OOL at 1415 this afternoon had 80 economy passengers. That is probably unprofitable but at least it's not just 10 or 15.

The SYD to OOL flights had much lower loads than MEL to OOL. Armchair commentator ... maybe SYD is too rusted on QF to break into, best to be avoided.

 

[Saab34]

Look at the OOL-SYD/MEL. 10-20 range for the lot.
I know it’s only Wednesday and returning mid week is normally quiet but VA was full for 3/4 of its schedule

 

[dajop]

Look at the OOL-SYD/MEL. 10-20 range for the lot.
I know it’s only Wednesday and returning mid week is normally quiet but VA was full for 3/4 of its schedule

We’re looking at different seat maps then.

Just looked then again to make sure I wasn’t seeing things but today OOL-MEL both flights had mid 40s pax. One OOL-SYD around 40, the other around 20.

Not great but better than 10-20.

 

[jakeseven7]

What’s interesting is Virgin appears to be doing the best on this run out of everyone.

I do note QF has not played in the low fare game on this route

Best at what? We have no idea what price they are selling all the seats for, they have been discounting very very heavily and they are a completely closed book now so there will be only selective 'very good news' heavily managed boring PR soundbites will be coming out about VA2 from Bain Capital.

Rexy and QF group won't have that luxury to hide of course!

QF mainline seem quite happy to be premium priced right now and holding onto the more premium market plus corporates and business as that builds back up. You can see by the way they are tiering their pricing during business popular times v leisure times. This means they are probably happy to run with lower loads if they are pulling in 5x the ticket price of the 3 LCC's fighting it out.

Will be interesting to watch, see how it evolves.

 

[Melburnian1]

Best at what? We have no idea what price they are selling them for and they are a completely closed book now, there will be only selective 'very good news' heavily managed PR soundbites coming out about VA2 from Bain Capital. Period.

Rexy and QF group won't have that luxury to hide of course!

And on the MEL - SYD route (historically by far attracting the most passengers), VAd 2.0 has frequency gaps (except on Fridays) currently such as a 1000 hours northbound then a 1200 'high noon': no 1100 hours. I didn't keep a copy of say the 2019 schedules with VAd 1.0 but suggest that the 'new version' operates fewer flights on the route.

So if like QFd it's cut its schedules by 25 per cent or more on this premier route, claims that 'VAd's flights are close to full' ignore the reduction in number of flights operated compared with pre-COVID-19.

Occasionally back in 2019, there may have been a VA A332 operating a SYD - MEL - SYD return trip, separated by the aircraft doing a return flight to PER. It lacks these larger planes in 2021, so that's another cut to seating capacity.

 

[MooTime]

Best at what? We have no idea what price they are selling all the seats for, they have been discounting very very heavily and they are a completely closed book now so there will be only selective 'very good news' heavily managed boring PR soundbites will be coming out about VA2 from Bain Capital.

Rexy and QF group won't have that luxury to hide of course!

QF mainline seem quite happy to be premium priced right now and holding onto the more premium market plus corporates and business as that builds back up. You can see by the way they are tiering their pricing during business popular times v leisure times. This means they are probably happy to run with lower loads if they are pulling in 5x the ticket price of the 3 LCC's fighting it out.

Will be interesting to watch, see how it evolves.

It seems any positivity mentioned of Virgin & you can guarantee out comes something negative re anything Virgin.

You say we have no idea what price there selling seats for? Really, is that a real question.

Have you read the annual reports for QAN or REX? or when @RAM quotes those reports there's nothing in reply.

 

[AIRwin]

QF had released some $79 restricted Y fares on the route.

I just noticed that these fares must be booked at least 45 days prior to departure (between 25 June and 13 July only)...

 

[henrus]

Intresting results today. Comparing 4 different blocks:

SYD-MEL 7am flights
QF409 A332 - 128/243 = 53%
ZL 9 B738 - 26/162 = 16%
VA808 B738 - 160/168 = 95%

SYD-MEL 1pm flights
QF445 B738 - 93/162 = 57%
ZL111 B738 - 65/162 = 40%
VA842 B738 - 163/168 = 95%

MEL-SYD 7am flights
QF410 A332 - 104/243 = 43%
VA811 B738 - 154/168 = 92%
ZL18 B738 - 33/162 = 20%

MEL-SYD 5pm flights
QF470 B738 - seat map not displaying however QF466 ~30mins earlier was 79% in Y
VA867 B738 - 57/168 = 93%
ZL152 B738 - 43/162 = 27%

All remaining VA and QF flights tonight show Y9 and Rex is even still selling $39 promo fares on their 8pm MEL-SYD.

VA still going strong and a still a lot of U fares in play which means many are buying new cash tickets and not just flying VA to burn FFC's.

 

[NM]

Intresting results today. Comparing 4 different blocks:

Can you identify your source of the data reported? Is this taken from actual ticket sales or a view of the seat map that is viewable? Seat maps are not a reliable representation of actual ticket sales. But if you have access to the GDS that shows actual ticket sales, then the data can be considered accurate and meaningful.

 

[dajop]

Seat maps are not a reliable representation of actual ticket sales.

The pre-departure seat maps are not reliable (or rather seat maps prior to the flight closingn are not). However, the post-departure seat maps that are now available on Expertflyer for some airlines probably are a good representation of the number of passengers that actually travelled on the flight. Whilst this actually may over-estimate ticket sales (i.e. some seats allocated might be non-rev passengers), I'd say it's as accurate as amateurs are going to get. These seat maps seem to be available on expertflyer for some airlines up to a day after departure.

 

[henrus]

Can you identify your source of the data reported? Is this taken from actual ticket sales or a view of the seat map that is viewable? Seat maps are not a reliable representation of actual ticket sales. But if you have access to the GDS that shows actual ticket sales, then the data can be considered accurate and meaningful.

If you scroll through the above pages you'll see quite a lot of discussion about this that we've already had.

I'm using expert flyer and counting the seats marked as occupied but only after the flight has departed. This is accurate after the flight has departed because at this stage everyone has either selected a seat or been assigned a seat. The airline systems automatically push the latest seat map to the GDS so even seat swaps at the gate or those who fail to board would be reflected in these counts.

Obviously, there are some limitations to this, Qantas sometimes removes seat maps from public display, infants wouldn't be picked up and as dajop mentioned above even non-rev passengers would be picked up in these counts.

Expert flyer doesn't require a subscription to view seat maps (although I do have one as there is a daily limit on free account) and I encourage anyone to take some screenshots of the seat map after the door has been closed and compare it to a flight they're on. I've done this a few times on a variety of carriers (mainly QF and VA) and it was always spot on, I know for a fact with VA that it updates instantly, as one time someone who was going to sit next to me didn't show, and when the door was closed the updated seat map reflected this change.

 

[dajop]

. I've done this a few times on a variety of carriers (mainly QF and VA) and it was always spot on, I know for a fact with VA that it updates instantly, as one time someone who was going to sit next to me didn't show, and when the door was closed the updated seat map reflected this change.

Yes, so have I and always quite accurate.

My best use was in economy travelling PVG-LAX on UA. Flight was quite full, but I checked seatmap just as I reached the gate and noticed a bank of 3 seats in second last row (and 2 seats in 3rd last row) unoccupied. I went straight to the back and asked FA if I could sit there, she said once door closes (which was about to, as I was paged with 3 other pax). EF subscription was worth every cent that year!

 

[PineappleSkip]

I'm using expert flyer and counting the seats marked as occupied but only after the flight has departed. This is accurate after the flight has departed because at this stage everyone has either selected a seat or been assigned a seat.

+1
I have also consulted EF seat maps on QF and other airlines around about boarding time and found them generally very good. I have found variations. ET vacant or blocked seats in J were often occupied by deadheading crew or ET staff. Qr I also found to be spot on. CX always blocks the crew rest seats.

 

[Mattg]

Intresting results today. Comparing 4 different blocks ....
VA still going strong and a still a lot of U fares in play which means many are buying new cash tickets and not just flying VA to burn FFC's.

Can we be sure that VA's seat maps aren't showing blocked seats as occupied?

 

[henrus]

Can we be sure that VA's seat maps aren't showing blocked seats as occupied?

That's something that's crossed my mind quite a bit however a couple of things suggest that's probably not the case, the fare availability indicates there are genuinely full flights there are a few VA flights this afternoon/evening that show Y7 or Y8 (even one this evening that shows Y0 but does have J5) there was even more Y0's when there weren't any BBQ store problems in Sydney.

It's also not the case that every flight is full, there are still some VA flights that are quite empty eg VA908 MEL-SYD 6:30am today:

 

[Saab34]

Pre Covid it was always pretty normal across scattered days each week one or two early flights went out dead on VA and QF. 6am runs I always found hit and miss. Some had 50 some full. However Rex is empty every day.