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At 10:30pm you should be fine; Recently in the mornings I have seen Smartgate queues with 100+ people in them.
Whhaaaatt ? Melbourne, I'm guessing? Is this a sudden thing / change of arrival timings due to Daylight Saving?
I have had to wait for a SmartGate ticket machine to become available a couple of times (1 person in front, no more than a minute) but never had to queue for the scan, in SYD or MEL for ANY arrival ( Vancouver, LAX, AKL, SIN, HKG) for at least past 2 years.
Last arrival in SYD QF2 arr 6:10 am (one of the first, I know) I was HLO. Time from the plane's door to exit onto the landside: Time of walking + (30 secs at SmartGate ticket machine) + (60 secs at Smart Gate) + (10 secs at customs guy). So, maybe 10-15 mins from plane to taxi.