South Australian Election 2018

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CaptJCool

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Polling Day Adelaide 2018 - is there a sausage sizzle fire at the booth ?

Following hot on the heels of @RooFlyer's Tasmanian election 2018 thread
I thought I would create one for our State.

With the SA Election on St Patrick's Day 2018, I'm predicting a liberal win with mr X receiving no more than 3 seats. The only green will be Antony......oh, and the Irish drinking Guinness, and Batman...

Federal election results make it difficult to see mr X winning more than 3, because It's a long way from 15% to 50%. However, this infographic shows the districts where mr X did well in the 2016 Federal election Where will Nick Xenophon's presence be felt in the SA election?. In the seat Xenophon is contesting, The new boundaries no longer as strongly favour the Libs Hartley - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). And the newspolls suggest it's neck and neck with the labor vote for a former MP for the district down at 22%
Sharkie (NXT) is well liked in her Fed electorate. Going to the booth by booth level, suggests one seat inside her seat could be won, but again some booths clustered in Heysen barely polled 30% and it's a long way from 30% to 50%. A Galaxy poll conducted for the Adelaide Advertiser and published on-line on 26 February reported first preferences of Liberal 39%, Labor 15%, SA Best 22%, Greens 16% and Others %. On those numbers the result would be Liberal 51%, SA Best 49%. Heysen - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

The recent Newspolls suggest a handful of seats will be retained by independent members who favour the party who would otherwise win the seat....or could be won by SA BEST. Loyal voters are taken for granted just like banks do, (the Royal Commission this week highlighted it) so we may be in for a few surprises as voters protest theiir "taken for granted". Eg Taylor - A YouGov Galaxy poll conducted for the Adelaide Advertiser and published on-line on 13 March reported first preferences of Labor 39%, SA Best 29%, Liberal 23% and Greens 6%, which the Advertiser turned into a two-candidate preferred result of Labor 49%, SA Best 51%.....Taylor - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)


At the last state election the winning party polled 47%, an indie died and Lab won the by-election by 6 votes, one defection and the other Ind chose Lab...since then a redistribution means Labor needs to win a net gain of 4 seats. I would be surprised if either major won an outright majority as occurred two weeks ago in Tas or in Qld and WA

AS for the Upper House
Lib 4, Lab 3, SA Best 2 and 2 left to be fought over by Cons, greens, dignity and Lab (1 quota is 8.33%). It will operate similarly to Tas. For those who don't receive a quota nor a pass-through quota, it will see a first past the post for the last seats....

It will probably also be seriously affected by exhausted ballots as this time you only need to mark 1 on the ballot paper and there are no preferences flows.... and having already voted, it did occur to me this may ultimately create a perverse result where the last two seats are won with 0.4 or more quotas but not likely to see the Motorist party Ricky Muir kinda result of 0.05 quotas preference whispering... too late to change the ballot now....

For a decent overall summary Antony's review is at; 2018 South Australian Election Preview.
 
I think that people toyed with the idea of a NickX vote but as the day drew near they generally began to think seriously. I think the 3 independents support might be crucial but if Liberals gain enough seats and that is the current thought, then we will know the result tonight. I hope MrX has some kind of influence in the Government process. Interesting after effects will be resignations and retirements. Will Malinauskas finally achieve what he has planned for all along. He has been AWOL except for yesterday. I hope that the Labor party lose the seat that Bob Such held. We still haven’t voted but when I do I’ll fill out all the squares for the Upper House.

CATCH UP: South Australia Sky News/Advertiser People's Forum | Sky News Australia

Given the voting patterns in Antony Greens summary from 2014 I see Labor Victory more an indication of better scrambling rather than a people vote. Labor is very good at scrambling but think this time it won’t be enough.

I put in an appearance asking a question at around 29.40.
 
I hope that the Labor party lose the seat that Bob Such held.
Given the voting patterns in Antony Greens summary from 2014 I see Labor Victory more an indication of better scrambling rather than a people vote. Labor is very good at scrambling but think this time it won’t be enough.

Fisher the 6 vote by election win for Labor (when Such died) which was an exceptional scramble has been abolished....
 
Fisher the 6 vote by election win for Labor (when Such died) which was an exceptional scramble has been abolished....
Ah. So is that person standing elsewhere? My SIL is a nurse and that person went from being a nurse advocate to completely toeing the party line.
 
One mistakein Antony Green's background to SA elections.Don Dunstan won in 1972 because of the redistribution done by Steele Hall not because of demographic changes.Dunstan the had a further redistribution.
 
Ah. So is that person standing elsewhere? My SIL is a nurse and that person went from being a nurse advocate to completely toeing the party line.

Yes, Nat Cook is standing in.....Hurtle Vale - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Unfortunately, labor differences are decided in private and woe betide anyone who votes against the party on the floor....

I liked your question. About what did you learn in the last 4 years from your mistakes.

Perhaps the Premier could have thought your red frames were supportive of him ? Lol
The apologies of failures reminds me of the Dean in Married at First Sight. Doesn't matter how often you apologise, it's not going to be forgotten
 
Yes, Nat Cook is standing in.....Hurtle Vale - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Unfortunately, labor differences are decided in private and woe betide anyone who votes against the party on the floor....

I liked your question. About what did you learn in the last 4 years from your mistakes.

Perhaps the Premier could have thought your red frames were supportive of him ? Lol
The apologies of failures reminds me of the Dean in Married at First Sight. Doesn't matter how often you apologise, it's not going to be forgotten

I need to Like and Agree.

I was thinking about Marshall’s response. He would have brought the house down had he said something along the lines “I practise saying ‘Liberal’ every night before I go to sleep’.

The thing I liked about asking a question was that each candidate was actually looking at me when answering. Although after Speers questionning, for Mr Weatherill, it was more of a glare. It was a deliberately worded question. Including asking the Premier to answer first. :cool:

I had emailed Sky News asking for the full episode. Within 15 minutes the Head of their Digital Services had replied with the link. Then last night I received a personal email from David Speers. I was very impressed.

I came away from that meeting with a better understanding of where the electorate is at. Some very frustrated people whom would be Labor loyal. And Nick gave a good performance but lacking in policy but generally caring for people. Mr Marshall I thought was better than in the past. He was nodding vigorously as I said the bit about MrP being on a plane as that was where our business is, but stopped when I said that wasn’t my issue for the meeting.

When Mr Weatherill went into the old story about it being Liberals fault when they sold ETSA, the audience groaned out loud and shifted positions. A few people called out. That didn’t come across on the telecast.
 
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Labor just called hung. It’s interesting times.
 
Still very early ....

Projections ALP 11. Lib 12. Other 1 mt gambier (pro-lib)
 
Still very early ....

Projections ALP 11. Lib 12. Other 1 mt gambier (pro-lib)
I’m calling Dogs breakfast. Antony Green saying nothing much happening. Which because of boundary changes translates to change of Govt as Labor needed to gain seats.
 
I’m calling Dogs breakfast. Antony Green saying nothing much happening. Which because of boundary changes translates to change of Govt as Labor needed to gain seats.

Yea Dunstan and Elder yet to report ANY votes
 
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Antony Green just called Liberal win. 24 seats. Those in doubt aren’t ones that Labor would win.
 
Gosh I cannot wait for a Liberals win. Labor has been in power for way too long and too much deadwood .....
 
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