CaptJCool
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Polling Day Adelaide 2018 - is there a sausage sizzle fire at the booth ?
Following hot on the heels of @RooFlyer's Tasmanian election 2018 thread
I thought I would create one for our State.
With the SA Election on St Patrick's Day 2018, I'm predicting a liberal win with mr X receiving no more than 3 seats. The only green will be Antony......oh, and the Irish drinking Guinness, and Batman...
Federal election results make it difficult to see mr X winning more than 3, because It's a long way from 15% to 50%. However, this infographic shows the districts where mr X did well in the 2016 Federal election Where will Nick Xenophon's presence be felt in the SA election?. In the seat Xenophon is contesting, The new boundaries no longer as strongly favour the Libs Hartley - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). And the newspolls suggest it's neck and neck with the labor vote for a former MP for the district down at 22%
Sharkie (NXT) is well liked in her Fed electorate. Going to the booth by booth level, suggests one seat inside her seat could be won, but again some booths clustered in Heysen barely polled 30% and it's a long way from 30% to 50%. A Galaxy poll conducted for the Adelaide Advertiser and published on-line on 26 February reported first preferences of Liberal 39%, Labor 15%, SA Best 22%, Greens 16% and Others %. On those numbers the result would be Liberal 51%, SA Best 49%. Heysen - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
The recent Newspolls suggest a handful of seats will be retained by independent members who favour the party who would otherwise win the seat....or could be won by SA BEST. Loyal voters are taken for granted just like banks do, (the Royal Commission this week highlighted it) so we may be in for a few surprises as voters protest theiir "taken for granted". Eg Taylor - A YouGov Galaxy poll conducted for the Adelaide Advertiser and published on-line on 13 March reported first preferences of Labor 39%, SA Best 29%, Liberal 23% and Greens 6%, which the Advertiser turned into a two-candidate preferred result of Labor 49%, SA Best 51%.....Taylor - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)
At the last state election the winning party polled 47%, an indie died and Lab won the by-election by 6 votes, one defection and the other Ind chose Lab...since then a redistribution means Labor needs to win a net gain of 4 seats. I would be surprised if either major won an outright majority as occurred two weeks ago in Tas or in Qld and WA
AS for the Upper House
Lib 4, Lab 3, SA Best 2 and 2 left to be fought over by Cons, greens, dignity and Lab (1 quota is 8.33%). It will operate similarly to Tas. For those who don't receive a quota nor a pass-through quota, it will see a first past the post for the last seats....
It will probably also be seriously affected by exhausted ballots as this time you only need to mark 1 on the ballot paper and there are no preferences flows.... and having already voted, it did occur to me this may ultimately create a perverse result where the last two seats are won with 0.4 or more quotas but not likely to see the Motorist party Ricky Muir kinda result of 0.05 quotas preference whispering... too late to change the ballot now....
For a decent overall summary Antony's review is at; 2018 South Australian Election Preview.