SQ nonstop SIN-SFO A350 launching later this year

[Strategic Aviation]

San Francisco To Singapore: The Frenemy Bloodbath - One Mile at a Time

Up to 4x daily flights between San Francisco and Singapore

Prior to June 2016 there were no nonstop flights between San Francisco and Singapore. Since then:

• United launched daily nonstop 787-9 flights as of June 1, 2016
• Singapore launched daily nonstop A350-900 flights as of October 23, 2016
• United announced that they’re adding a second daily 787-9 flight as of October 27, 2018
• Singapore announced that they’re adding three additional weekly A350-900ULR flights as of November 28, 2018

This means that we’ll see a total of 24 weekly frequencies between San Francisco and Singapore, and up to four flights per day. That’s insane.

That means we’ll see a minimum of 138 business class seats per day, and up to 205 business class seats per day. That’s a lot of capacity. It’s hard to argue that the rate at which capacity is being added is rational, but rather we’re seeing an outright airline war at this point.

There’s simply no way the San Francisco to Singapore market can sustain this much capacity. Sure, the airlines will probably be able to fill seats, but not in a way that’s lucrative, given that all of this capacity will drive down fares.

I feel like capacity reductions are inevitable here, though I can’t decide which airline is most likely to pull out first. Obviously Singapore Airlines has a far superior business class product, and also has corporate contracts in Singapore. At the same time, United has corporate contracts in San Francisco, and based on what I’ve seen the market is bigger for travel from San Francisco to Singapore than the other way around.

I’ll be very interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[Melburnian1]

All of what the contributor says may have some truth, but California has a population of 39.5 million plus, more than 50 per cent greater than Australia's.

SQ will draw passengers for these SFO flights from many other places in SE Asia, plus there'll be some ex Oceania.

I agree: interesting to see how it will go and the yields the airlines obtain but new flights, like additional train trips for surface travel, tend to induce more journeys.

 

[dajop]

All of what the contributor says may have some truth, but California has a population of 39.5 million plus, more than 50 per cent greater than Australia's.

Yes, whilst there is some truth to the idea that there seems to be a capacity war at play, the author seems to make out the route is all about SIN-SFO traffic, but it clearly is not. The services aren't solely servicing Singapore-San Francisco. These services are about Singapore-US traffic and Southern India/SE Asia/WA - SFO traffic.

The route allows SQ to effectively compete on CGK/KUL//PER/BLR/MAA/etc single stop services to SFO, where as before SQ travellers needed to take less convenient three hop/two stop journey. It also allows UA to take traffic from all sorts of places to SIN via SFO with only a single stop, as well as SQ through partnership with AS.

 

[Melburnian1]

Yes, whilst there is some truth to the idea that there seems to be a capacity war at play, the author seems to make out the route is all about SIN-SFO traffic, but it clearly is not. The services aren't solely servicing Singapore-San Francisco. These services are about Singapore-US traffic and Southern India/SE Asia/WA - SFO traffic.

The route allows SQ to effectively compete on CGK/KUL//PER/BLR/MAA/etc single stop services to SFO, where as before SQ travellers needed to take less convenient three hop/two stop journey. It also allows UA to take traffic from all sorts of places to SIN via SFO with only a single stop, as well as SQ through partnership with AS.

dajop,excellent points.

I can't speak re UA and other USA airlines as it's years since I've travelled on UA but for SQ, there must be some room for optimism because surely with its reputation it attract a lot of media attention and interest from the general public/ businesses, and out of that will come bookings.

SQ must be pretty good at marketing, with the sole exception of what was if I recall a poorly designed 'new' website that it had then to cast aside a few years ago.

 

[Strategic Aviation]

California has a population of 39.5 million plus, more than 50 per cent greater than Australia's.

The majority of California's population is not in the San Francisco greater area.


CAPA has a premium (subscription-only) report that would be interesting to read - Singapore-US market: nonstop flights rise from 21 to 41 services pw - CAPA Centre for Aviation.

The Singapore-US market will be served with 41 nonstop flights in Dec-2018, compared to 21 currently and zero just over two years ago. There is perhaps no market that has benefitted as much from new aircraft technology.

Singapore Airlines (SIA) and United Airlines used the A350-900 and 787-9 to launch nonstop flights from Singapore to San Francisco in 2016. SIA will use the new A350-900ULR to resume nonstop flights to Los Angeles and Newark in 4Q2018, as well as to increase capacity to San Francisco.

SIA’s business class capacity to the US will increase by 50% over the next few months, and its premium economy capacity will increase by a staggering 150%. Filling more than 3,100 one-way business class seats and more than 2,800 one-way premium economy seats may prove challenging.

 

[docjames]

So SQ sell this as PER-SIN-SFO and vv?

Would be competitive with QF PER-SYD/MEL-SFO.