Must...Fly!
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Thanks - great post & info as always.I don’t doubt they could make KNX. The question is what kind of payload are they carrying? We could take full tanks from BNE to PER all the time but at what cost? The potential to leave pax and/or their bags behind? So you’ve hit it on the head, not economical or sensible.
Be interesting to see what they replace the F100 with.
KNX was always marginal but they could make it on most days. Many of the F100 flights take full tanks out of Perth (or very close to it) to minimise the chance of having to take fuel in the regional ports, particularly KNX. Sometimes a tech stop would be required on the way back at PHE/KTA/ZNE to minimise fuel taken further north. Depends on the weather too, of course - if it was exceedingly hot, a tech stop would be required on the way back for a drink. The standard F100s can make KNX but tech stop or restriction most of the time, as far as I can recall. Fuel & hold was a pretty regular request, just to be sure not to be overweight & load as much fuel as possible.
As for your last point - this is the question that I'm interested in and no clear/obvious choice seems to have materialised...there are a few years til it is required, but the capital is not going to be easy to find.