Tasmania Border control late July

[ramboflyer]

The Liberal premier of Tasmania is not acting anything like a pro business leader. I live in Hobart and there is a sense of frustration gathering. In the south there have been no new cases of C19 for maybe 6 weeks and about 4 weeks since any active cases. There are 2 active cases in the NW and thats it.
No doubt there are Tasmanians wanting to travel interstate but won't because of having to quarantine on return.

 

[drron]

Well the chance of a TAS-NZ bubble got a little less likely with the NZ Foreign Minister saying flights to Australia will only go ahead when all state borders open.

Tourism Minister backs NZ Deputy PM's comments travel bubble held up by 'slowest state in Australia'

Leaders across the Tasman Sea are becoming frustrated at Australia's delays in opening state borders — and Tourism Minister Simon Birmingham agrees.

www.abc.net.au

 

[CityRail]

Well the chance of a TAS-NZ bubble got a little less likely with the NZ Foreign Minister saying flights to Australia will only go ahead when all state borders open.

Tourism Minister backs NZ Deputy PM's comments travel bubble held up by 'slowest state in Australia'

Leaders across the Tasman Sea are becoming frustrated at Australia's delays in opening state borders — and Tourism Minister Simon Birmingham agrees.

www.abc.net.au

Then we definitely need either High Court or the Prime Minister to ensure the internal borders are kept open then.

I still don't understand what is the basis of keeping them closed considering there are no community transmission in NSW for quite some time already.

 

[DC3]

You mean the internal borders maybe lifted after the national cabinet meeting this Friday?

No. It’s still all very secretive.

 

[DC3]

Then we definitely need either High Court or the Prime Minister to ensure the internal borders are kept open then ...

States rights. Scomo has no control over state border matters.

And the HC may well leave things as they are. Who knows?

 

[antycbr]

States rights. Scomo has no control over state border matters.

And the HC may well leave things as they are. Who knows?

I think the feds have had a gutfull of the state premiers. The states keep their borders closed and the feds have to wear the economic cost. I expect some federal fiscal firepower to be applied pretty soon to any state that doesn’t open up.

 

[jakeseven7]

No. It’s still all very secretive.

QLD has been softening its stance this week starting Sunday.... so suspect we are about to fold, soon, thankfully.

 

[RAM]

I think the feds have had a gutfull of the state premiers. The states keep their borders closed and the feds have to wear the economic cost. I expect some federal fiscal firepower to be applied pretty soon to any state that doesn’t open up.

The states bear a lot of the cost, their main sources of revenue are cut much more than the Fed's. Massive 80+% drop in stamp duty, 18% drop in GST, 100% drop in pokies tax, 100% drop in AFL/NRL/etc bet tax, for the major ones vs a much smaller drop as a % for Fed. Remember the Fed Govt is taxing all the JobKeeper etc payments.

And the States with closed borders are funding that cost which on the modelling was projected to be 8% of the cost of not closing them to halt inter-state & intra-state transmissions. If the Fed Govt had acted a week or two earlier, or if NSW had not let the Ruby Princess debacle happen - then we'd be around 7 weeks ahead of where we currently are (modelling on Ruby Princess spread impact only).

Not as easy as it may seem from one particular perspective. Korea & Singapore are good examples of letting things ease too soon. A second lock down within Australia would guarantee a 2 to 3 year downturn. Nearly all food related businesses (cafe, restaurant, bar, pub, club etc) would go under if they had to dispose of their stocks a second time which may well be what SA, Tas, WA & Qld's Premiers are weighing up given their tourism industries.

Tasmania had seen their property market relatively rocket up until early 2020 - putting many peoples' purchases at major risk of negative equity & according to the stats, Tas mortgage holders have taken up the mortgage deferrals just as eagerly as people in NSW & Vic. The problem for Tasmania is they have even less revenue contribution from non-tourism related areas than pretty much anywhere else in Australia.

In Qld that would almost guarantee the collapse of their SEQ property market which in real terms has not gained since 1997, & would see at least 3 financial institutions need to be bailed out. The Fed Govt knows this but is playing politics unfortunately.

So no quick bounce coming for VA nor Q, and no Tas visit for me.

 

[RooFlyer]

The problem for Tasmania is they have even less revenue contribution from non-tourism related areas than pretty much anywhere else in Australia.

That's for sure. In respect of the Tas Premier's attitude, the phrase 'became necessary to destroy the town [the state's economy] in order to save it' comes to mind.

I checked the quote and found this interesting aside, for those who remember the Vietnam War. Destroying a Quote's History in Order to Save It

 

[drron]

RAM the modelling by the Australian Government initially predicted many more cases and deaths than that done by the Imperial College,Oxford.That modelling has been shown to be badly executed leading to a massive overestimation of cases and deaths.Sadly those numbers are still being used to justify decisions such as border closures when surely the authorities should be aware of the inaccuracies.
The Tasmanian Premier was initially saying upwards of 80% of Tasmanians would catch the virus and used the original Chinese data saying mortality was ~ 4.1%.However we now know that data couldn't be trusted and the mortality rate is a lot lower than that.Australia's mortality rate was skewed by the number of cruise ship cases that resulted in death.
Then again in these circumstances the politicians will always use the worst case scenario so that when the numbers are dramatically less they will claim the credit.That policy is working.

 

[jakeseven7]

The wife and I have some flights booked to Tas on Virgin from the 17th July (before the world got into this situation) and were really hoping for some hiking. We had hope that the 2 week quarantine would be over by then but it seems that Tas' stage 3 that is estimated for the 13th July still has the quarantine in place.

What do you think the chances are of Tas lifting those by 17th July? Should we basically forget about it and ask for our travel credits/refunds or is there still hope?

Roadmap to Recovery | Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

Information and advice about the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) including latest updates from the Tasmanian and Australian Governments.

coronavirus.tas.gov.au

To revisit the OP and purpose of this thread.

VA1 has just released their new schedule and Tasmania has zero VA1 services unfortunately - period.

 

[Denali]

Just looked at my VA bookings and theyre still selling seats on our flights for August - of course IF they still fly it and if borders open but quarantine required, theres no point in us going. Im just waiting to see what happens but tentatively looking at local alternatives at this stage.

 

[CityRail]

Breaking News: Tasmania has indicated a date when they may open their borders

Tasmania looks to late July to open borders

Tasmania will most likely lift its border restrictions in late July, says Premier Peter Gutwein, as he approved a raft of further COVID-19 lockdown easing.

Heralding the state’s achievement in recording its first day of no active cases, Mr Gutwein said he wanted to see what happened with border lifting in other states before making a final call on that issue.

“We want to keep an eye on what’s occurring in those other jurisdictions,” Mr Gutwein said. “Right across the country, more people will be mixing and I think it’s sensible to keep an eye on what’s occurring.”

However, with the state enjoying 27 days without a new coronavirus case, he announced a bringing forward of restriction easing, starting on Wednesday, June 17.

This will allow up to 80 people at indoor gatherings, such as in gyms, pubs, restaurants, weddings and funerals, with a limit of one person per four square metres. The number of people allowed to visit a private home will increase from 10 to 20.

A further “stage three” easing of restrictions that had been due to begin on July 13 would come forward to June 26, he said.

This would remove caps on numbers of people at a various events and venues but maintain the one person per four sq m rule. Stadium crowds would be limited to 25% capacity.

Source: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/na...6e5d6b7d74cc46035b146aa99d399?keyevent=3.15pm

So perhaps you can keep your hopes up as of when you can return to Tasmania!

 

[DC3]

Breaking News: Tasmania has indicated a date when they may open their borders

Tassie in Winter?

Somewhere way up North sounds more appealing.

 

[CityRail]

Tassie in Winter?

Somewhere way up North sounds more appealing.

I think that is just in case someone is thinking about or needing to go to Tasmania in July.

Personally of course, I wish I can go up north, wear my swimsuits and enjoy the warmth up in Queensland.

 

[RooFlyer]

Tassie in Winter?

Cripes yes. Tens of thousands of mainland visitors in mid July at least. And a thousand or so go swimming in Hobart beaches, too

you may not have heard if it

Dark Mofo

13—23 June, 2024.

darkmofo.net.au

 

[jakeseven7]

Cripes yes. Tens of thousands of mainland visitors in mid July at least. And a thousand or so go swimming in Hobart beaches, too

you may not have heard if it

Dark Mofo

13—23 June, 2024.

darkmofo.net.au

Went with about 20 mates to dark mof_ last year. Huge.

 

[RAM]

Always like to visit somewhere when tourists generally don't......

 

[RooFlyer]

"The Prime Minister of New Zealand and the Premier of Tasmania are pleased to announce that a limited direct service will begin between Hobart and Auckland, sanctioned by the Australian Federal Minister for Transport. This will be the first open international flights for both countries after the virus lock-down "

An update, which surprises not many:

INTERNATIONAL flights to and from Hobart Airport will not go ahead from January as planned.

The state and federal governments’ plan to see Hobart Airport host flights to and from New Zealand by next month has been pushed back until at least March as arrangements continue.

The $59m joint government investment was set to see two weekly flights between Hobart and Auckland during winter months and three flights each way during other seasons.

The arrangement would see the implementation of about 30 Australian Border Force, Australian Federal Police investigators and biosecurity officers at the airport.
...

The last line here is pertinent!

“It is anticipated that all arrangements will be in place by March 2021, with construction commencing at Hobart Airport to enable the international procession area to be completed ahead of direct flights from NZ in first quarter 2021,” a spokeswoman said.

“This timing is expected to coincide with announcements by the NZ Government to enable non-restricted travel between NZ and Australian at that time.”

An airline partner is yet to be secured, the spokeswoman said.
...

 

[jakeseven7]

An update, which surprises not many:

INTERNATIONAL flights to and from Hobart Airport will not go ahead from January as planned.

The state and federal governments’ plan to see Hobart Airport host flights to and from New Zealand by next month has been pushed back until at least March as arrangements continue.

The $59m joint government investment was set to see two weekly flights between Hobart and Auckland during winter months and three flights each way during other seasons.

The arrangement would see the implementation of about 30 Australian Border Force, Australian Federal Police investigators and biosecurity officers at the airport.
...

The last line here is pertinent!

“It is anticipated that all arrangements will be in place by March 2021, with construction commencing at Hobart Airport to enable the international procession area to be completed ahead of direct flights from NZ in first quarter 2021,” a spokeswoman said.

“This timing is expected to coincide with announcements by the NZ Government to enable non-restricted travel between NZ and Australian at that time.”

An airline partner is yet to be secured, the spokeswoman said.
...

What a surprise