The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

[Lynda2475]

He did not say however that AZ should not be used as a booster.

But he did specifically mentioned that MRNA vaccines should be used for boosters.

 

[Quickstatus]

vaccine myocarditis/

they have not always ruled out other causes.

The diagnosis is basically a diagnosis of "exclusion of other causes".
Other causes such as autoimmune disease, toxins, viral, sarcoidosis were also eliminated before a CovidVax myocarditis diagnosis is declared.
Its is never an assumed diagnosis.
There are a barrage of tests that are undertaken.

We had one boy present to A&E with vomiting, lightheadedness and crampy abdominal pain. Sounded like gastro.
Also has PZ 1jab - presented postjab day 2.
The initial indicators were a raised CRP, then raised troponin, abnormal ECG and cardiac echo. Then a cardiac MRI
Then other tests and detailed history re-taking to exclude other causes. Even tested his poo.

It was a physicians dream - tests,tests, and more tests looking for this and that.
Eventually after 1 week he was told no more PZ or other mRNA jabs.

Could he have some rare disease that he and only 100 other people in the world got that no one treating him thought of. Sure, history is abound with such stories. But in the end, prima facie it was PZ myocarditis.

 

[CaptainCurtis]

The latest TGA report says "These events can occur due to other causes, including common viral infections, so it is expected that not all cases are related to vaccination". It also states that "Cases are usually transient and resolve following treatment and rest". Earlier versions questioned definite causation.

Correct, it does say that, but why do you deliberately leave out the next sentence to suit your narrative?

Our ongoing analysis of Australian data with Comirnarty (Pfizer) indicates there is a higher-than-expected number of cases of myocarditis in vaccinated compared to unvaccinated individuals

 

[CaptainCurtis]

The diagnosis is basically a diagnosis of "exclusion of other causes".
Other causes such as autoimmune disease, toxins, viral, sarcoidosis were also eliminated before a CovidVax myocarditis diagnosis is declared.
Its is never an assumed diagnosis.
There are a barrage of tests that are undertaken.

Completely mirrors my experience. My rheumatologist ordered a barrage of tests to rule out the things you mentioned (12 vials worth...).

Could he have some rare disease that he and only 100 other people in the world got that no one treating him thought of. Sure, history is abound with such stories. But in the end, prima facie it was PZ myocarditis.

His response when my tests all came back clear essentially echoes your sentiment - "The temporal connection between the onset of symptoms and the administration of the first dose cannot be ignored".

 

[Quickstatus]

His response when my tests all came back clear

I can't imagine a physician worth their salt not wanting to demonstrate their diagnostic prowess in going through all the potential differential diagnosis when a case like this pops up. Always good for the Grand rounds - in which case you want to have excluded the other possibilities lest your colleagues burn you at the stake for forgetting something... (and also impressing the medical students)

BTW his treatment was 9 days in Coronary care - too breathless to go anywhere so for him not a transient admission. but he was supported by UberEats as he did not like the hospital food. KFC in a coronary care was a first.

 

[Lynda2475]

There have been more mrna vaccines given than Az every month since July. In September 4million more Pfizer were given than AZ (6m vs 2m) .



Yet we have not had any vaccine related deaths for anyone who had had Pfizer or Moderna, and are not seeing huge numbers of heart conditions as result.

The recommendations are clear that mrna is recomended for almost everyone, and countries giving boosters are favouring mrna vaccines.

 

[Quickstatus]

Doses sold per income band

mRNA is the domain of the rich.

PZ says it progressively prices PZ - low income countries at cost and high income countries at profit.
Who knows for sure, but they are on the record in saying that prices will rise after pandemic is over, and have indeed increased their prices by 25% recently
Big Pharma cashing in...

The most important thing with medicines is not to be beholden to one brand over another, but look at each dispassionately.

 

[drron]

There have been more mrna vaccines given than Az every month since July. In September 4million more Pfizer were given than AZ (6m vs 2m) . Yet we have not had any vaccine related deaths for anyone who had had Pfizer or Moderna, and are not seeing huge numbers of heart conditions as result.

The recommendations are clear that mrna is recoomended for almost everyone, and countries giving boosters are favouring mrna vaccines.

Sorry you keep banging on about Australia's record.You can't though ignore that deaths have happened elsewhere in the world.We have been lucky.We might not be so fortunate in the future.The other thing you don't mention is that Myocarditis a fter an mRNA vaccine is predominantly in those under 30 and more likely after the second jab.So the numbers in this group are far less than the total mRNA jabs given.
I am not trying to run down the Pfizer vaccine.It is good.But the AZ vaccine is also a good vaccine and very useful.It will be used more in less developed countries as it is cheaper,easier to store and distribute even to remote areas.
I am just sick and tired of your continuing to rubbish AZ.You really do sound like Janette Young.

 

[CaptainCurtis]

BTW his treatment was 9 days in Coronary care - too breathless to go anywhere so for him not a transient admission. but he was supported by UberEats as he did not like the hospital food. KFC in a coronary care was a first.

I also had a few nights in the CCU, so I asked my family to drop off a bag with some clothes, toothbrush, phone charger etc. Anyway, the bag arrives and the first thing I notice when I open it up is that it's packed with chips and choccies... I didn't have it in me to consume any of it during my admission, particularly while sharing a room with 3 other elderly patients .

Certainly not transient in my experience either - going on about 9 or 10 weeks now since my jab.

and are not seeing huge numbers of heart conditions as result.

At the risk of sounding like a conspiracy nutter (I am not one, I fully believe in the vaccines), I am of the firm belief that suspected cases are simply not being reported. One of my cardiologists alone has seen between 5-10 cases of it. I don't believe my own case has been reported. I am by no means suggesting there are "huge" numbers of it, but it is certainly an issue and one that is, rightly or wrongly, not getting the same level of attention that the AZ-related issues received.

 

[Seat0B]

Completely mirrors my experience. My rheumatologist ordered a barrage of tests to rule out the things you mentioned (12 vials worth...).


His response when my tests all came back clear essentially echoes your sentiment - "The temporal connection between the onset of symptoms and the administration of the first dose cannot be ignored".

I hope your health is improving @CaptainCurtis

 

[Quickstatus]

But the AZ vaccine is also a good vaccine and very useful.It will be used more in less developed countries as it is cheaper,easier to store and distribute even to remote areas.

While we are banging on about 3jab, there are poorer countries who just cannot afford vaccines even at cost.
And the logistics can be a nightmare - PZ in particular requiring deep freeze until reconstituted.

Imagine a poor country who prefers Pfizer:
The transportation of PZ involves:

Special GPS tracked dry ice containers with thermal sensors which are supposed to keep temps at -70C for up to 10 days
Then stored until use in ultra low temperature freezers for several months at distribution hubs
At location, the dry ice can be replaced every 5 days for up to a month
Or normal hospital fridge at 4% for 5 days

Imagine the difficulties transporting this in an African country where even basic electricity. Dry ice? - they don't even have running water
Not insurmountable but very difficult.
There needs to be a viable cold chain management to ensure proper storage and delivery - much more difficult the lower the temperatures.
Who is going to provide that in areas without proper roads and infrastructure.

Then training local workers to thaw and reconstitute with sterile water and divide the multidose vials and jab.
Problem is the reconstitution process can only occur at room temperature. Once reconstituted jab within 2 hours. Wastage of PZ as we have seen in Australia?
Precision required - 1.8ml sterile water into PZ vial, extract 0.3ml per jab. even jabbers in australia have problems with extracting 6x0.3ml as some drops cling to the vial inside and is hard to extract

Medical records and patient identification?

On the other hand
AZ only needs to be stored at 2-8deg for up to 6 months
Don't need to freeze
Does not need to be reconstituted either - just extract from vial
And the thing about the AZ multidose vial is there usually is an excess of doses.

It usually comes in 8 doses or 10 doses but often an extra dose can be extracted. In other words when it says 8 doses, there is always 8 extractable doses. Unlike PZ where its a struggle to extract 6 doses often only 5 because the 6th is less than 0.3ml . Putting the the residual into another vial is never recommended due to safety considerations and infection control

Think of the vaccine equity - We prefer PZ. but you can have the inferior one.
Vaccines and medicines. In fact the delivery of medical care involves much more than just which medicine/vax/treatment is best.
Look at the RFDS or MSF, They have more logisticians than Drs. Your local hospital require a support staff and infrastructure so that medical care can be optimised.

 

[Lynda2475]

I am not trying to run down the Pfizer vaccine.It is good

The facts would show its better than good. Your posts show you clearly favour AZ as you frequently promote AZ findings but disregard the studies posted that used real world data to show PZ recipients had stronger immune response over Az in both the shorter and longer term.

I am just sick and tired of your continuing to rubbish AZ

Nope i posted the quote from our CMO and defendied the recommendation that mrna vaccines are the preferred option. I have not told anyone not to get AZ ever, if they want to go against what is recommended they can, doesnt change what the recommendations are.

I dont need to rubbish AZ, there is ample commentary in the public domain from experts, that mrna is safer for most.

can't though ignore that deaths have happened elsewhere in the world.

Which still shows more deaths from AZ induced clots, thank Pfizer related myocarditis. I dont buy the pure luck argument.

Quality of and access to health care, prevalence of underlying conditions and attitudes vary in different parts of the world, which is why local data should not be disregarded as luck. Overseas outcomes arent more important than local ones.

If you are going to only recognize overseas outcomes, then you cant ignore the positive outcomes and research for mrna just because you prefer AZ.

 

[drron]

Though the evidence is beginning to show that after 6 months AZ becomes more effective than Pfizer.Another reason that poorer countries will find it much to be preferred to mRNA vaccines.

However it is likely that in the future an annual covid jab will be required.Possibly a different vaccine each year depending on whether new variants arise.

One thing is very evident -we don't know everything about Covid-19 yet.Quite possible the vaccines we have now will be superseded.

 

[Lynda2475]

Think of the vaccine equity - We prefer PZ. but you can have the inferior one.

No good will come from discarding the best option when we can afford it and safely administer it just because its not practical for some poorer countries to do the same.

We dont deny ourselves food, clean water or other drugs or technology dependent medical procedures because these arent readily availble to all people everywhere.

Inequity existed before covid and will exist afterwards.

We are donating millions of doses of AZ and im sure once we have mrna manufacturing capabilities we will donate mrna as well or whatever the next innovation is.

We have also donated PPE, equipment, sent medical teams to our pacific neighbours, shared research etc. These things help, not using available mrna vaccines helps no one.

As my highschool debating coach would say, resorting to emotional arguments and guilt trips only weakens your case, stick to the facts.

 

[Lynda2475]

Though the evidence is beginning to show that after 6 months AZ becomes more effective than Pfizer.

And others i posted that show the opposite.

However it is likely that in the future an annual covid jab will be required

Agree which is why varient boosters are needed more so than a 3rd jab of the initial vaccine. The moderna boosters we ordered for 2022 are meant to be variant tweaked, not the same formula given in 2020 and 2021.

Quite possible the vaccines we have now will be superseded

Id bet money on this, right from the start those in the know said vaccines will need to evolve as the virus does. And mrna technology allows for faster tweaking.

 

[Quickstatus]

I’m not sure how the forecasts work

You can use all sorts of estimation methods, but one way is a 7 day average (or 10 day or 14 day)

The Monday after is just to give a bit of buffer. They could have used 7 days after or x days after. Monday seems acceptable to most people
Oct 16 and 17 would be a weekend and weekend dosing historically have dropped off.
Will be interesting to see if the 80% is reached next weekend and what the Govt response will be.

Looking at the covidlive website.
NSw is 72.8% and total second dose thus far is 4831173
To get to 80% the doses that need to be jabbed will be (4831173 / 0.728 x 0.8 ) - 4831173 = 477808 doses left to jab

The 14 day average per day is currently: 66614
477808 / 66614 = 7.17 days
Round up to 8 days.

= October 17 (Sunday)

Note that the previous 14 days average was 64690 per day.
If we use 64690 as the average, 80% day is still October 17

Now there has been an acceleration in the jabbing rate over the last month or so.
if we add the difference between 64690 and 66614 to 66614, we get an adjusted 14 day average of 68538
Doing the sums again we get 6.9 days
Roundup to 7 days.

= October 16 (Saturday)

To get to 80% by Friday October 15 will require a daily jabbing rate of 79634 including today and tomorrow.

In summary
477808 jabs to go to 80% 2 jab
Possibly the weekend prior to Oct 18
however waiting till oct 25 is also good to give the 2jabs a little more time to kick in - ideally it needs at least 2 weeks

 

[dairyfloss]

I reckon a real simple way to look at the likelihood of NSW hitting the 80% DD [before the 18th] is this: the 7 day average projects we’re hitting it on the 18th. That 7 day average contains the Labour Day weekend and no less than 2 of the quietest days of vaccination activity in months. We’re hitting this on the 17th or earlier. Sorry, northern NSW, we’re fully opened, Monday week.

Cheers,
Matt.

 

[Quickstatus]

stick to the facts

and what is not factual in my post?

 

[Solid]

My very non-scientific calculation is that on a regular day the NSW double dose percentage goes up at least 1.4%. Weekends are less so if we give Sat/Sun a total of a 1% rise and then got back to 1.4 we hut 80% on Saturday 16/10

 

[burmans]

While I’m still feeling reasonably confident I think it’s worth noting as a counterpoint to the theory we will hit 80% in a week that it was just over 70% of first doses that the rate started to slow a fair bit. Remaining hopeful but not a done deal yet.