The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

But just like epidemiological predictions, we are changing the rate of vaccination with each new hub opening. And so predictions rapidly become erroneous.

Well they update that stat weekly, last week it was showing completion start of May 2023, so have reduced by 2-3 months but still a long way off completion by October 2021 which is what we were promised.
 
Well they update that stat weekly, last week it was showing completion start of May 2023, so have reduced by 2-3 months but still a long way off completion by October 2021 which is what we were promised.
SA is saying October for at least first dose whereas previously they were saying Christmas.
 
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But the Prime Minister originally said all 18+ by October 2021. Numbers don't support that, and they haven't published new targets, so we can only go off the projections based on doses per week which currently has us tracking for Feb 2023.

The median age in Australia is 38, so majority of the adult population need Pfizer and that is being drip fed.
 
Do you have the figure for ACT?

ACT were on the official slides I provided.

Administered by ACT1620632016479.png+ Commonwealth Aged Care 1620632055998.png+ Commonwealth Primary Care 1620632091727.png

= 65,043 doses given / 431,215 population = best case 15% partially vaccinated. However, some of those doses will be second doses already, Feds need to report number of first and second doses to tell full story.

The source of the slide that omitted ACT is unclear.

SMH also shows:

Per 100k of population:
1620631859562.png

Total doses (excluding commonwealth administered doses):

1620631828494.png
 
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At our current pace of roughly 403,000 doses a week, we can expect to reach the 40 million doses needed to fully vaccinate Australia’s adult population in mid February 2023.
That is a dodgy statistic.

Australia's population over 14YO is roughly 20M - 2.7M doses have already been given.

At 403,000 doses per week that is another 43 weeks - April 2022.

Last dose of AZ would be three months after that. So July 2022.

It is not October 2021, but it is definitely not February 2023.
 
That is a dodgy statistic.

Nope you forgoet everyone needs 2 doses.

20M people require 40 Million doses - both of the Aus approved vaccines are 2 doses.

40,000,000 doses - 2,663,221 doses given leaves 37,336,779 to go.

At 403k / week that requires 93 weeks to complete - which does put us firmly in Feb 2023.

Im sure the pace will pick up, but with Pizer dependency for bulk of those doses it wont be the end of this year ir even the first quarter of next year.
 
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You're also assuming that the pace of the rollout does not improve which is contrary to what's been observed. The pace of the rollout is improving over time.
 
The pace of the rollout is improving over time.

Which I acknowledged.

But to hit the original target of end of October (which is in 25 weeks), we would need to deliver about 1.5M doses per week - that wont happen.
 
Nope you forgoet everyone needs 2 doses.
No I did not. That why July 2022.

I cannot understand anyone could believe that articles's misleading extraploation of merely doubling.

The capacity is improving and will be able to cope.

I'll come back to this post in four months time after the May wave of AZ recipients have had their second dose.
 
Which I acknowledged.

But to hit the original target of end of October (which is in 25 weeks), we would need to deliver about 1.5M doses per week - that wont happen.
That is true - it won't happen

Nor will February 2023. Australian who want to be vaccinated will have had their second dose well before then.
 
To meet your guess of end April 2022 (50 weeks from now), would need to be vaccinating 747k / week. Even stretching to end July (62 weeks) that required 602k/week from now.

NSW is forecasting 60k / week from end of this month. Doubtful the other states will do more than that per week, so I just dont see it.

Would love to be proven wrong, but fort that to happen we need serious Pfizer deliveries earlier this year.
 
Novavax will also accelerate the vaccination rate once it hits.





However even without Novavax, the rate is continuing to accelerate.

Commodore ERIC YOUNG
Date published:
10 May 2021


Thank you, Minister. Good afternoon. Last week, we had a major boost to our vaccination program, in which we substantively implemented the direction from National Cabinet, which predominantly limited the use of the Pfizer vaccine to those under 50.

Now, that included bringing forward our next phase of vaccinations to those aged 50 and over, while also ensuring that other cohorts were offered the vaccine as soon as possible.

In doing so, as the Minister said, last week was our largest week, with 400,066 vaccines administered.

This week, we are further increasing the allocations of vaccines to states and territories and our general practices, with 130,000 additional doses of Pfizer vaccine going to the states and territories, nearly doubling their allocations, and an additional 270,000 doses of AstraZeneca vaccine going to primary care.

That will allow us to triple the allocations of doses from 50 to 150 doses, for our nearly 3000 low-volume general practices, and double the allocations from 100 to 200 doses for our 1000 medium-volume practices.

Today I'd like to give my operational update, and again, I’ll do that in three parts: the supply of the vaccine, the distribution of the vaccine, and the administering of the vaccine. In terms of supply, this week, the Therapeutic Goods Administration will conduct sample testing and batch release of 351,000 doses of Pfizer vaccine which arrived onshore at 6:50 this morning.

They will also conduct batch release and sample testing for 1 million doses of the onshore, CSL-produced AstraZeneca vaccine. For the first time this week, CSL producing four batches of AstraZeneca vaccine.

In terms of distribution of the vaccine, last week, we successfully distributed 560,000 doses of the vaccine. Only one out of the many thousands of orders from last week was unable to be completed and it will be completed today.

This week, on the back of the additional allocations and amid growing supplies, we’ll be distributing over 900,000 doses of vaccines, with more than 5000 orders going out across the country. That is our biggest week by far.

So this week, we are focused on delivery and ensuring that every one of those vaccines gets to where it needs to. In short, we’re now providing more vaccines to protect more Australians.

In terms of administering of the vaccine, last week, again as the Minister said, we had our largest week with 402,606 doses of vaccine administered, taking our total now to 2,663,221 doses of vaccine administered.

An analysis of that data indicates that the rate of administration is increasing. Last week, the weekday average was 73,000 doses per day, which was up 7000 doses per day from the week before.

That comes with a growing use of the Pfizer vaccine for those aged under 50, and already a positive uptake in those aged 50 and over.

Last week, 252,000 doses of vaccine were administered through more than 4600 primary care sites across the country. Coupled with the sites from the states and territories, we now have 5200 sites administering vaccines across the country.

For our vaccine workforce service providers, again, as has been the case the last couple of months, our focus continues to be on those most vulnerable in our population, those older Australians in residential aged care facilities.

We’ve now conducted 1909 first dose visits to residential aged care facilities that accounts for 74 per cent of the facilities. We also conducted 1330 second dose visits or 52 per cent of all residential aged care facilities.

This week, we continue to focus on making sure all eligible Australians know how and where to access a vaccine through a combination of targeted communications but also through ongoing updates to the Eligibility Checker and the Vaccine Clinic Finder.

We’ve now had more than 4.3 million visits to the eligibility checker. But every single day, our focus remains on ensuring the vaccines we have are available across the country when and where required to protect those most vulnerable Australians.



GP's are from 17 May getting more doses, and more vaccination hubs are yet to open as well. And sooner or later Pharmacies will join in.

As GPs have already delivered more than half the vaccinations , despite joining the program late, increasing their supply will be helpful to accelerating the rate.
 
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Nope you forgoet everyone needs 2 doses.

20M people require 40 Million doses - both of the Aus approved vaccines are 2 doses.

40,000,000 doses - 2,663,221 doses given leaves 37,336,779 to go.

At 403k / week that requires 93 weeks to complete - which does put us firmly in Feb 2023.

Im sure the pace will pick up, but with Pizer dependency for bulk of those doses it wont be the end of this year ir even the first quarter of next year.
You keep forgetting Novavax where we have ordered 51 million doses.
Plus the reason for the drip feed of the Pfizer vaccine it isn't being supplied at the agreed rate.More production facilities are coming on line and some major consumers -the US and UK- will be needing a lot less.So supply for Australia should improve.

And the government has kept in reserve the second doses for all that have had their first shot so that lso reduces the time as it is not the number of shots that could be given that is the cause of the present slow uptake.
 
Novavax will also accelerate the vaccination rate once it hits.





However even without Novavax, the rate is continuing to accelerate.

Commodore ERIC YOUNG
Date published:
10 May 2021


Thank you, Minister. Good afternoon. Last week, we had a major boost to our vaccination program, in which we substantively implemented the direction from National Cabinet, which predominantly limited the use of the Pfizer vaccine to those under 50.

Now, that included bringing forward our next phase of vaccinations to those aged 50 and over, while also ensuring that other cohorts were offered the vaccine as soon as possible.

In doing so, as the Minister said, last week was our largest week, with 400,066 vaccines administered.

This week, we are further increasing the allocations of vaccines to states and territories and our general practices, with 130,000 additional doses of Pfizer vaccine going to the states and territories, nearly doubling their allocations, and an additional 270,000 doses of AstraZeneca vaccine going to primary care.

That will allow us to triple the allocations of doses from 50 to 150 doses, for our nearly 3000 low-volume general practices, and double the allocations from 100 to 200 doses for our 1000 medium-volume practices.

Today I'd like to give my operational update, and again, I’ll do that in three parts: the supply of the vaccine, the distribution of the vaccine, and the administering of the vaccine. In terms of supply, this week, the Therapeutic Goods Administration will conduct sample testing and batch release of 351,000 doses of Pfizer vaccine which arrived onshore at 6:50 this morning.

They will also conduct batch release and sample testing for 1 million doses of the onshore, CSL-produced AstraZeneca vaccine. For the first time this week, CSL producing four batches of AstraZeneca vaccine.

In terms of distribution of the vaccine, last week, we successfully distributed 560,000 doses of the vaccine. Only one out of the many thousands of orders from last week was unable to be completed and it will be completed today.

This week, on the back of the additional allocations and amid growing supplies, we’ll be distributing over 900,000 doses of vaccines, with more than 5000 orders going out across the country. That is our biggest week by far.

So this week, we are focused on delivery and ensuring that every one of those vaccines gets to where it needs to. In short, we’re now providing more vaccines to protect more Australians.

In terms of administering of the vaccine, last week, again as the Minister said, we had our largest week with 402,606 doses of vaccine administered, taking our total now to 2,663,221 doses of vaccine administered.

An analysis of that data indicates that the rate of administration is increasing. Last week, the weekday average was 73,000 doses per day, which was up 7000 doses per day from the week before.

That comes with a growing use of the Pfizer vaccine for those aged under 50, and already a positive uptake in those aged 50 and over.

Last week, 252,000 doses of vaccine were administered through more than 4600 primary care sites across the country. Coupled with the sites from the states and territories, we now have 5200 sites administering vaccines across the country.

For our vaccine workforce service providers, again, as has been the case the last couple of months, our focus continues to be on those most vulnerable in our population, those older Australians in residential aged care facilities.

We’ve now conducted 1909 first dose visits to residential aged care facilities that accounts for 74 per cent of the facilities. We also conducted 1330 second dose visits or 52 per cent of all residential aged care facilities.

This week, we continue to focus on making sure all eligible Australians know how and where to access a vaccine through a combination of targeted communications but also through ongoing updates to the Eligibility Checker and the Vaccine Clinic Finder.

We’ve now had more than 4.3 million visits to the eligibility checker. But every single day, our focus remains on ensuring the vaccines we have are available across the country when and where required to protect those most vulnerable Australians.



GP's are from 17 May getting more doses, and more vaccination hubs are yet to open as well. And sooner or later Pharmacies will join in.

As GPs have already delivered more than half the vaccinations , despite joining the program late, increasing their supply will be helpful to accelerating the rate.

I will believe it when I see it physically in the clinics, the GP rollout has been massively constrained by lack of vaccines. We estimated the clinics we are working with are still at only about 15-20% capacity some even lower.

GP’s are good to get more AZ because they will be able to calmly consult against all the hyperventilating media rubbish that surrounds the vaccine. We also have two clinics now doing Pfizer.
 
You're also assuming that the pace of the rollout does not improve which is contrary to what's been observed. The pace of the rollout is improving over time.

Exactly and we only have one state widely using mass vaccination centres (VIC) so once the other states catch up it will build again.

The other great thing is the more people get vaccinated, the more people know someone who has been vaccinated and the media beat up stories and people breathlessly screeching about DEADLY VACCINE DANGER become less and less effective. There will be a snowballl effect from this as well, at some point.

My entire (adult) family is now done in Australia, because most of us work in healthcare. Plus a couple who just asked to be done ahead of their cohort and were allowed to at end of day clinics :)
 
From SMH:

View attachment 247598

At our current pace of roughly 403,000 doses a week, we can expect to reach the 40 million doses needed to fully vaccinate Australia’s adult population in mid February 2023.
That’s an incredibly negative prediction. With capacity building and vaccine doses increasing to GPs, I think the weekly figure is going to be very high by June/July. The second doses for AZ only start happening in June, so I think we need to see weekly figures then to be able to make any predictions.
 

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