The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

[jakeseven7]

With the Singapore doses coming and then the UK doses one would hope the vaccine pace would pick up above what it is now.

But let's say we reach 70% first dose on September 18 we could then reach 80% early October(?) meaning with a 6 week gap between Pfizer and AZ doses you'd be looking at early to mid November for 80% fully vaccinated and even sooner if the gap between Pfizer doses can be shortened back down to the 3 weeks. The end of October for 80% fully vaccinated in Victoria seems to be a real possibility now.

I think you may well be right and hope you are, I think they could also come home earlier. VIC has by far and away the best set up for the mass hubs, were first to get them actually going with scale (not just ‘announce’ them for some PR) and can easily scale up to absorb the Singapore / UK influx.

Add to this, Victorians are completely over Covid probably more so than any other state I think you will see a tsunami of people coming forward to get jabbed when they can.

 

[mviy]

The UK doses may not start going into arms for a bit though (maybe about a week?) as they aren’t expected to start arriving till tomorrow and they will need batch testing etc.

Hopefully VIC can go well past 80%. Certainly by next month they should be able to start laying out in more detail what people in VIC who are fully vaccinated will be able to do when we reach 80% fully vaccinated.

 

[jakeseven7]

What a surprise, British experts disagree with ATAGI in how vaccines should be rolled out to kids…. A certain QLD premier should have a read of this too!

——

Britain advises against vaccinating healthy children below 16 against COVID-19​

British experts have said the benefits of vaccinating children against COVID-19 are not big enough to justify giving healthy teenagers, aged below 16, the jab.

The decision is at odds with the one made last week by the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) which recommended Pfizer vaccinations for anyone aged above 12 years of age.

Britain advises against vaccinating healthy children against COVID-19

British experts have said the benefits of vaccinating children against COVID-19 are not big enough to justify giving healthy teenagers, aged below 16, the jab.

www.theage.com.au

 

[JB expat]

What a surprise, British experts disagree with ATAGI in how vaccines should be rolled out to kids…. A certain QLD premier should have a read of this too!

——

Britain advises against vaccinating healthy children below 16 against COVID-19​

British experts have said the benefits of vaccinating children against COVID-19 are not big enough to justify giving healthy teenagers, aged below 16, the jab.

The decision is at odds with the one made last week by the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) which recommended Pfizer vaccinations for anyone aged above 12 years of age.

Britain advises against vaccinating healthy children against COVID-19

British experts have said the benefits of vaccinating children against COVID-19 are not big enough to justify giving healthy teenagers, aged below 16, the jab.

www.theage.com.au

hmm - given how I feel about ATAGI and their role re: AZ, I'm leaning towards giving more weight to the British experts! (that's said somewhat in jest as I am eager to get my kids vaccinated if approved)

 

[SYD]

TGA Provisional Approval of Moderna COVID-19 vaccine to include 12-17 years age group

The TGA has granted provisional approval to Moderna Australia Pty Ltd in relation to the COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax (elasomeran), for individuals aged 12 years and over.

www.tga.gov.au

No joy for AP and under 12s….

 

[Lynda2475]

And yet in USA 12-15 year olds have been getting Pfizered safely for months, and it has greatly helped with getting reluctant kids and teachers back to face to face learning.

I have several friends in US with kids in that age group and they couldnt get them jabbed fast enough, gave peace of mind because you never know how many other kids at the school or on the bus come from nutbar families where no one is vaxed in any age cohort.

Likewise all friends here with 12-15 year olds will be booking them in as soon as it opens on 13th Sept, there are just way too many adults circulating who havent bothered to get jabbed, going to working with symptoms and defying stay at home orders when positive.

If the return to school cases keep surging in UK, you can bet there will be many parents demanding their 12-15s be given vaccine access, as it has shown to be safe.

Plus if they want to travel abroad it will be a requirement for 12+ to board flights and enter other countries where they are vaxing 12+.

 

[Princess Fiona]

What a surprise, British experts disagree with ATAGI in how vaccines should be rolled out to kids…. A certain QLD premier should have a read of this too!

——

Britain advises against vaccinating healthy children below 16 against COVID-19​

British experts have said the benefits of vaccinating children against COVID-19 are not big enough to justify giving healthy teenagers, aged below 16, the jab.

The decision is at odds with the one made last week by the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) which recommended Pfizer vaccinations for anyone aged above 12 years of age.

Britain advises against vaccinating healthy children against COVID-19

British experts have said the benefits of vaccinating children against COVID-19 are not big enough to justify giving healthy teenagers, aged below 16, the jab.

www.theage.com.au

hmm - given how I feel about ATAGI and their role re: AZ, I'm leaning towards giving more weight to the British experts! (that's said somewhat in jest as I am eager to get my kids vaccinated if approved)

Nope I’ll stick with ATAGI

Despite very robust evidence of efficacy, the UK still don’t have Varicella Zoster (Chickenpox) immunization on their childhood schedule.

We do not need to give any weight to British experts.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Series of news.com.au questions/survey relating to lockdown, borders, vaccination/unvaccinated freedoms

How we should treat the anti-vaxxers

Australia has reached a critical point in its attempt to escape the Covid pandemic.

www.news.com.au

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Nope I’ll stick with ATAGI

Despite very robust evidence of efficacy, the UK still don’t have Varicella Zoster (Chickenpox) immunization on their childhood schedule.

We do not need to give any weight to British experts.

Sutton mentioned today that the UK advice did not include factoring in the effects on the young of "long-Covid".

ie Including this increases the benefits of vaccinating this cohort.

 

[mviy]

Sutton mentioned today that the UK advice did not include factoring in the effects on the young of "long-Covid".

ie Including this increases the benefits of vaccinating this cohort.

From completely unnecessary to probably completely unnecessary is still not a big shift.

Vaccination of kids against COVID is pretty much to protect adults and to make their parents feel better rather than benefit the kids health except for those with other serious health issues.

 

[Princess Fiona]

From completely unnecessary to probably completely unnecessary is still not a big shift.

Vaccination of kids against COVID is pretty much to protect adults and to make their parents feel better rather than benefit the kids health except for those with other serious health issues.

Massive difference between Australia and the UK.
It’s estimated that 40-60% of the 12-16yr age group in the UK have natural immunity to Covid through infection.

 

[mviy]

Massive difference between Australia and the UK.
It’s estimated that 40-60% of the 12-16yr age group in the UK have natural immunity to Covid through infection.

Which means the kids survived the infection. Giving kids a vaccine for what is for them a non-fatal illness raises ethical questions which are not present for vaccinating adults for whom it is a potentially fatal illness.

If COVID-19 really was believed to be a serious threat to kids, testing and approval of the vaccine for them would have been prioritised and they would have been prioritised in the rollout rather than left till the very end.

Natural immunity is believed to wane over time, not just immunity from vaccination.

 

[Seat0B]

OK my 2 cents.

I think the whole age thing needs to be scrapped in light of all these new Pfizers and Modernas coming in. Just let any human over 12 or whatever choose what vaccine they want. Some will choose by brand, some will choose by convenience (whatever their local GP is dishing out). I have seen this scenario play out overseas. Even in the USA the vaccine rollout was a disaster until they opened it up to all adults equally. Stop making people jump though hoops.

If the federal government sends those letter to 580k seniors, it could cost him the election. These people are not idiots, they were the pioneer hippie trail travelers in the 60's and 70's, raised families with no where near the handouts available nowadays and they are highly insulted at having their choices taken away and being treated like children. Giving them choice does not mean they will all flood into Pfizer hubs. Some will still go AZ if that is more convenient. They just want to be shown the same respect as under 50's are being shown.

At the end of the day, out of those 580k, some will be waiting for Pfizer, some will be waiting the respect of having a choice, some will be non-vaxxers and some will be medically unable to be vaxxed. But this demographic is the overwhelming majority of deaths in the Delta wave and it is not a good look if we want borders to open asap. The message should be "It's ok to have spread because the vax is saving lives. But Australia is looking very cruel and inhuman overseas by bullying senior into a particular vax because the govt over-invested in one brand. It's not doing our future tourism industry any favours. Let's say 500k will accept Pfizer. That is nothing in light of the 4m coming from the UK. At most younger people wait ONE more week. In 3 weeks time they will be almost 100% immune to death by Covid and the Delta death stats will be very low which looks really good for border openings. It take the fear out of Delta and people will stop cheering AP and MMG for keeping borders shut.

I totally agree. The attitude to AZ reluctant people is pretty poor. They are the only age group not to have a choice. Even 12-17 now have the choice of Pfizer or Moderna. And there is a significant number not currently vaccinated.

if they keeping being told AZ or nothing, then it’s pretty clear now they have chosen nothing.

Whatever people may think of that decision, if the goal is to hit vaccination targets then it’s clear that this significant chunk of people will not be participating until given a choice. So to get them to have it, just allow a choice. Simples.

 

[mviy]

66.26% fully vaccinated for 70+. In the next day or two of numbers that should go past 2/3.

50-54 is the latest age group to go past 50% fully vaccinated (51%). Every age group 50-54 and up except 60-64 has gone past 50% fully vaccinated.

40-44 and 45-49 are getting close to 2/3 with a first dose. They may reach that in the next few days or so.

25-29 has reached 41% with a first dose. So every age group 25-29 and up is over half way to 80% first dose.

16-19 is at 25.8% with a first dose (over 25% or 1/4).

NSW and NT have both gone past 40% fully vaccinated for 16+, half way to the 80% target. ACT has gone past 45% and WA is the last state to go past 1/3 fully vaccinated for 16+.

TAS has gone past 80% first dose and 60% fully vaccinated for 50+

NSW has gone past 85% first dose for 50+.

NT has gone past 60% fully vaccinated for 70+ the last state or territory to do so.

Over 2 million Victorians are fully vaccinated.

 

[mviy]

I totally agree. The attitude to AZ reluctant people is pretty poor. They are the only age group not to have a choice. Even 12-17 now have the choice of Pfizer or Moderna. And there is a significant number not currently vaccinated.

if they keeping being told AZ or nothing, then it’s pretty clear now they have chosen nothing.

Whatever people may think of that decision, if the goal is to hit vaccination targets then it’s clear that this significant chunk of people will not be participating until given a choice. So to get them to have it, just allow a choice. Simples.

Well back when I had AZ, as someone in 2B I had no choice to have a different vaccine.

70+ first doses did climb by about 9k and 50+ by nearly 43k yesterday. Admittedly there'd be some Pfizer in the 50+ figure, but the AZ first dose figures clearly are still climbing in the elderly.

Less than 330,000 of the 70+ population is yet to have a first dose, however nearly 1.7 million of the 50+ population is yet to have a first dose. Admittedly there will be some anti-vaxxers in both these groups and there will be 50-59 year olds eligible for Pfizer in the 50-59 figure, but those are still significant numbers.

They also want those who have had their first AZ shot to come back for the second and not think they can mix and match and get Pfizer for the second. There are presumably millions (across the entire population not just elderly) who have had their first AZ shot still to have their second.

I think Pfizer or Moderna will be opened up to the 60+ population eventually, but that probably won't be till later in October or even November. If vaccines are approved for any age groups under 12 and a decision made to roll it out to those groups that could push that timeframe back further.

 

[drron]

You have stated one level of facts, but other level of facts would include:

- when did X reach Y% of vaccination? I think Israel reached most vaccination levels earlier and there has been some evidence of protection waning.
- do both have similar lockdown, social distancing (eg masks, density) and border restrictions?
- what proportion of cases are in vaccinated and unvaccinated?
- the mix of Pfizer v other vaccines in the community?
- deaths is a lagging indicator usually.

I'm sure there are possibly other factors.

Similiar vaccination rates.similiar relaxation of restrictions.The one big difference is the UK used AZ and Israel did not.That said the UK has given more Pfizer shots than Israel.

So the possibilities are the decrease in effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine after 6 months or the short time between doses 1 and 2 in Israel.

A couple of interesting articles that have come out this week.First from San Diego re breakthrough infections in HCW.All vaccinations were mRNA.By March 76% had been vaccinated and by July 83%.The effectiveness of the vaccinations was ~ 90% until June but fell to 65.5% in July.
Interesting looking at attack rates.Those who were vaccinated in January or February had a positive rate of 6.7 per 1000.For vaccinations between March and May 3.7.For unvaccinated staff the rate was 16.4.

Welcome to Precision Vaccinations News

Precision Vaccinations News publishes vaccine news patients can trust to make informed immunization decisions in partnership with doctors, nurses, and pharmacists.

www.coronavirustoday.com

And in the Lancet a very interesting study in the UK and AZ vaccination results.Several findings.

We also report the persistence of antibody and cellular responses at 182 days and for antibodies up to 320 days after first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19.

It also found that the longer the time before a second dose was given the greater the antibody response was to that second dose.They gave the second dose up to 45 weeks after the first.

Antibody levels induced by a single dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 decreased gradually but remained above baseline levels after 1 year. We have previously shown that administration of a second dose of vaccine induces higher antibody responses by 1 month after the second dose than before the second dose, with higher responses with a dose interval up to 3 months between the first two doses.
3
Here, we found that a long extension of the dose interval (up to 45 weeks) between the first and second dose further enhances the immune response to the second dose when compared with shorter dose intervals. Furthermore, for the first time, we showed that a third dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 can induce a strong boost to immune responses to the transgene product, SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, and that these responses result in increased neutralising antibody titres and enhanced antibody activity against variants.

A third dose was given to some 28-38 weeks after the second dose.The results were better than after the second dose.

Here, we show that a third dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 is well tolerated and significantly boosts antibody titres above those measured after the second dose to the level associated with 80% vaccine efficacy, or higher, after two vaccine doses (unpublished; preprint data available.
Higher titre neutralising antibodies against alpha, beta, and delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 were induced 28 days after a third dose vaccination than after the second dose.

Reactogenicity and immunogenicity after a late second dose or a third dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 in the UK: a substudy of two randomised controlled trials (COV001 and COV002)

An extended interval before the second dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 leads to increased antibody titres. A third dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 induces antibodies to a level that correlates with high efficacy after second dose and boosts T-cell responses.

www.thelancet.com

So it is possible that those who have been waiting after their first dose of AZ are well advised to now go and have their second dose of AZ as the results likely to be better than having Pfizer as the second jab.
As well side effects were much less after the second and third doses.VITT is extremely rare after the second dose - ~ 1 in 3.5million.

It is possible those that have Pfizer will need a booster at 6 months but with AZ possibly at 12 months.

 

[Batterytraveller]

Which means the kids survived the infection. Giving kids a vaccine for what is for them a non-fatal illness raises ethical questions which are not present for vaccinating adults for whom it is a potentially fatal illness.

No it doesn’t raise ethical questions.

firstly it isn’t a 100% non-fatal condition for children, sadly unvaccinated children are dying in the US and elsewhere, albeit at a lower rate than adults.

secondly children grow up, and we vaccinate children against diseases that are more likely to affect them later in life, HPV being a good example.

thirdly, and this seems to be the thing that everyone forgets (along with any ability to understand probabilities) is vaccination effectiveness is tied to coverage in the population. Diseases like smallpox and polio were eradicated, because we vaccinated as many people as possible, regardless of the risk to them as individuals. Even if children aren’t severely affected by the disease they are carriers and spreaders.

the risk to children being vaccinated is low so there is no reason for them not to be vaxxed.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

I totally agree. The attitude to AZ reluctant people is pretty poor. They are the only age group not to have a choice. Even 12-17 now have the choice of Pfizer or Moderna. And there is a significant number not currently vaccinated.

if they keeping being told AZ or nothing, then it’s pretty clear now they have chosen nothing.

Whatever people may think of that decision, if the goal is to hit vaccination targets then it’s clear that this significant chunk of people will not be participating until given a choice. So to get them to have it, just allow a choice. Simples.

I think it’s pretty clear Australia doesn’t need this segment of AZ reluctant to make the Doherty targets. The approx 500k figure quoted is at best 2% because the figure will include some anti-covid vax people.

If it makes people feel better, once the area/nation gets to 80%, then give these AZ reluctants some vaccine choice.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Is Pfizer or Moderna really going to be a "choice" vaccine though - I think people will just rock up for whatever isn't AZ? I don't think anyone has a problem with allowing 60+ access to either mRNA vaccine eventually (I sure don't). But I also don't think it's fair for the younger cohorts, who have sacrificed a lot for the older ones, also have to delay receiving vaccines because of the perception of a medication.

It is a slightly hypocritical stance, but so is locking down the whole population to shield the vulnerable if you think about it.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Is Pfizer or Moderna really going to be a "choice" vaccine though - I think people will just rock up for whatever isn't AZ? I don't think anyone has a problem with allowing 60+ access to either mRNA vaccine eventually (I sure don't). But I also don't think it's fair for the younger cohorts, who have sacrificed a lot for the older ones, also have to delay receiving vaccines because of the perception of a medication.

It is a slightly hypocritical stance, but so is locking down the whole population to shield the vulnerable if you think about it.

I have heard some discussion that some people think Moderna is "better", so yes even within mrna there is a choice.