The future of flying - mostly single aisle?

[markis10]

UA announced today their order for 150 737 taking total orders for the 737 family to over 10000, and Farnbourgh closes with no Boeing wide body orders.

Airbus new orders and commitments:

Russia’s UTair for 20 A321s
Colombia-based Synergy Aerospace for six A330-200s and three A330-200Fs
Irish lessor Avolon for 15 A320neos
Lebanon’s Middle East Airline-Air Liban for five A320neos and five A321neos plus eight options

Combined with orders announced earlier this week, including a $4.2 billion order for 26 A350-1000s from Cathay Pacifi.

Interesting times.

737
664		19	9	-1	691
		4		3
			3
				2
3
75
			1
45
			3
		15
				10
17
230				5
122
			5
			3
				4
3
150
24
669		19	15	24	727
-5			-6	-25	-36
664		19	9	-1	691
	737	747	767	777	787	Total

[TH="align: left"]Orders through July 12, 2012[/TH]

[TH="width: 52"]747[/TH]
[TH="width: 52"]767[/TH]
[TH="width: 52"]777[/TH]
[TH="width: 36"]787[/TH]
[TH="width: 90"]Total[/TH]

[TH="align: right"]2012 Net Orders[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]Air Astana[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]7[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]Air Canada[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]3[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]Air New Zealand[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]2[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]Alaska Airlines[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]3[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]ALC[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]75[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]American Airlines[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]1[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]China Eastern Airlines[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]45[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]EVA Air[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]3[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]FedEx[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]15[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]Japan Airlines[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]10[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]Jet Airways[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]17[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]Lion Air[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]235[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]Norwegian[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]122[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]Pakistan Int'l Airlines[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]5[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]TAAG (Angola Airlines)[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]3[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]Transaero Airlines[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]4[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]Unidentified Customer(s)[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]3[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]United Airlines[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]150[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: left"]Virgin Australia[/TH]

[TH="class: bgltgray, bgcolor: #EEEEEE"]24[/TH]

[TH="align: right"]2012 Gross Orders[/TH]

[TH="align: right"]Changes[/TH]

[TH="align: right"]2012 Net Orders[/TH]

[TH="colspan: 7"][/TH]

 

[dajop]

Isn't it that more airline competition = less wide bodies, at least for short-medium haul, different I guess on long haul. From a Australian perspective where 767s are commonplace for serving SYD-MEL, it's hard to fathom that city pairs serving combined populations of around 28m people (NYC and Chicago) are actually served routinely by 75 seat regional jets! At least in Asia in similar city pairs (such as PEK/SHA, HND/ITM) there are still heaps of widebodies.

 

[markis10]

RJs were not much in favor either, with the 150 to 200 seat segment by far the biggest area of interest.

 

[Blackbird]

No different to the past and present.
Most aircraft flying now are single aisle - 73x, A32x , RJs, and let's not forget MD80-90 & 757 in US.

 

[markis10]

No different to the past and present.
Most aircraft flying now are single aisle - 73x, A32x , RJs, and let's not forget MD80-90 & 757 in US.

We are not talking about flying, where the fleet spreads over 30 years, we are talking about orders for new aircraft where there has been a significant downsize in the large aircraft orders, a quick look at 747 and A380 orders over five years shows this, now that both have their latest product in fleets I was expecting to see top up orders, which have not come.

When you consider the backlog of 737 orders is now almost half of those built over the past 40 years, while Airbus backlog of single aisle is 70% of units ever built, while wide body backlog is well below 40% of entire fleet, I think there is an increasing trend to frequency over capacity.

 

[dajop]

RJs were not much in favor either, with the 150 to 200 seat segment by far the biggest area of interest.

I think you missed my point. I was not suggesting RJs were popular just that if airlines routinely operate routes linking cities as big as NYC & Chicago with RJ's, mainly due to high competition, it wouldn't be surprising that narrow bodies (generally) are more in favour than wide bodies.

 

[markis10]

I think you missed my point. I was not suggesting RJs were popular just that if airlines routinely operate routes linking cities as big as NYC & Chicago with RJ's, mainly due to high competition, it wouldn't be surprising that narrow bodies (generally) are more in favour than wide bodies.

I didn't miss your point, at present the demand is very much a peak around 150-200, the situation is quite dire at the other end with regional propjets with very little on order or in production to replace the 40 and below segment, the SAABs and Jetstreams won't last for ever!

 

[dajop]

I didn't miss your point, at present the demand is very much a peak around 150-200, the situation is quite dire at the other end with regional propjets with very little on order or in production to replace the 40 and below segment, the SAABs and Jetstreams won't last for ever!

Wonder how long Rex can keep flying SAAB's around for!

For the 150-200 seaters maybe the results of consolidation in US are starting to become evident (or maybe not?), instead of DL, CO, NW & UA all flying RJ's you will eventually just get DL & UA flying larger planes.

 

[harvyk]

This is of little surprise, pax now want frequency. In days of old ppl where willing to deal with the fact that there was only one or two flights per day (or in some cases per week) between point A and B, these days ppl want airlines to have similar frequencies as the local bus. Airlines can't get that by flying around jumbo jets full of people, they can only do it by flying baby planes.

 

[juddles]

....I think there is an increasing trend to frequency over capacity.

I agree, but let´s not forget that a modern 737 also has twice the capacity of the originals.

 

[serfty]

AA have been trying to divest themselves of AeAgle for several years ...

 

[docjames]

these days ppl want airlines to have similar frequencies as the local bus..

The frequency on SYD-MEL is a hell of a lot better than my local bus, especially on weekends/evenings! :shock: