The interesting sound of silence.

[serfty]

I've heard/read that ~$56 billion of spending has been added to the forward estimates. Against $60 billion in savings. Less than a billion saved per year, doesn't sound like saving the budget.

Who's budget?

The legislated budget we have is not very representative of the announced intentions of the Australian Government.

See post #107 ...

 

[TheRealTMA]

Go Scott Morrison for PM. We want a caring, compassionate Christian with good LNP values not a Malcolm in the middle small l liberal. Where's Nick Minchin when one needs him!

 

[TheRealTMA]

I've heard/read that ~$56 billion of spending has been added to the forward estimates. Against $60 billion in savings. Less than a billion saved per year, doesn't sound like saving the budget.

I agree with some prominent analysts that the government should take this unheralded opportunity to borrow another 100Bn at 2% fixed for 10 years and develop infrastructure and the NBN etc.

 

[medhead]

Who's budget?

The legislated budget we have is not very representative of the announced intentions of the Australian Government.

See post #107 ...

Which announced intentions? As far as I'm concerned the budget papers handed down on budget night, or during pre Christmas economic updates, supersede pre-election [-]lies[/-] promises when it comes to announced intentions.

No need to play semantics by adding the word legislated.

 

[medhead]

I agree with some prominent analysts that the government should take this unheralded opportunity to borrow another 100Bn at 2% fixed for 10 years and develop infrastructure and the NBN etc.

Given the way infrastructure spending has decreased under this government it is hard to see that happening. But it seems a good opportunity even if only to refinance debt at higher interest rates.

 

[TheRealTMA]

Give the way infrastructure spending has decreased under this government it is hard to see that happening. But it seems a good opportunity even if only to refinance debt at higher interest rates.

It seems the problem with this government is that it fundamentally does not believe in ANY government spending on development or good projects for the population. NBN a is a case in point. Poor liberal philosophy ( never used to be the case). Only small minded cuts. No vision for the country, just cuts to programs. Shame and a waste. We will rue the day of this lot of no policy vision.

it is such a shame in Australia these days that we can't seem to have any proper discussion of policy without personal vindictiveness.

 

[serfty]

Which announced intentions? As far as I'm concerned the budget papers handed down on budget night, or during pre Christmas economic updates, supersede pre-election [-]lies[/-] promises when it comes to announced intentions.

No need to play semantics by adding the word legislated.

The Australian Government announced in the budget many changes to overall reduce nett expenditure by far more than $4Bn - they have not so far been able to get many of those changes enacted. See post #107.

 

[medhead]

The Australian Government announced in the budget many changes that would overall reduce nett expenditure - by far more than $4Bn - they have not so far been able to get many of those changes enacted. See post #107.

Once again, the budget announced both savings and new spending. The net saving over 5 years was $4 billion, or there about. Getting it legislated is besides the point. The budget to fix the budget emergency had net savings of stuff all, less than $1 billion per year. That was the announced intention. The latter issue about getting things legislated does not change the fact that the starting point was pathetic in terms of reducing deficit and debt.

 

[medhead]

It seems the problem with this government is that it fundamentally does not believe in ANY government spending on development or good projects for the population. NBN a is a case in point. Poor liberal philosophy ( never used to be the case). Only small minded cuts. No vision for the country, just cuts to programs. Shame and a waste. We will rue the day of this lot of no policy vision.

it is such a shame in Australia these days that we can't seem to have any proper discussion of policy without personal vindictiveness.

I don't understand how comparisons with the household budget is even a thing. My household debt is 240% of my annual income. So apparently I'm a bad economic manager.

 

[serfty]

Hearsay?

I've heard/read that ~$56 billion of spending has been added to the forward estimates. Against $60 billion in savings. Less than a billion saved per year, doesn't sound like saving the budget.

Federal budget 2014

... The budget deficit will fall from its current $49.9 billion to $29.8 billion next year. It will then fall to a deficit of $2.8 billion in 2017-18. ...
...
Even so, over the next ten years we will reduce our expected debt by nearly $300 billion from $667 billion to $389 billion. And that is after we prudently budget for future taxation relief.
...

 

[TheRealTMA]

I don't understand how comparisons with the household budget is even a thing. My household debt is 240% of my annual income. So apparently I'm a bad economic manager.

Could not agree more, I read a good quote on the QLD debt problem the other day re asset sales, economics prof said it was like having an investment property that was half paid off and the rental income paid the interest but the proposal was that we should sell the property to cancel the debt.

The current obsession by the right wing forces in Australia with the moderate debt of state and federal governments is just illogical and ideological rubbish that supports their desire to not invest in the country with government funds.

 

[browski]

One forgotten titbit is that on Tuesday, if Abbott falls, then Bill Shorten officially becomes "the best Opposition Leader ever". Now I know it is dubious how these awards are handed out, but when you have just spanked the previous winner..........

 

[Alanslegal]

So what are people's predictions?

I am predicting that the spill motion would be unsuccessful, with a result of 73-29. Tony Abbott will try to spin that it is a significant victory for him. The media will no doubt say that the win is hollow, that there is still a lot of disgruntled members and will imply that 29 members supporting a spill, is massive.

Tony Abott's victory may be very short-lived if the polling %'s do not improve for himself or as a party. If the %'s do not improve, I would be expecting a spill later this year, Malcolm Turnbull will definitely 'go for broke' and announce his intentions early, try to gather enough support to become Australia's 29th Prime Minister. It will give him the best of 12 months to work the electorate before the next election.

Personally I don't see Malcolm Turnbull willing to become the next opposition minister, let alone waiting 5+ years to get that shot at becoming the PM. If the %'s don't improve by September - the Liberal Party knows they need to take that risk and accept Malcolm to to lead them to the next election - and this is the easiest way for Malcolm to be the PM and we know he wants it - who doesn't?

 

[medhead]

Hearsay?

Federal budget 2014

Published in one or more newspapers possibly including the Australian. I've tried finding a link. But my search skills are failing.

Edit: oh I see you're quoting hockey from the budget speech. The numbers I mention are from someone running the numbers. I guess that might be the issue, the budget speech wasn't supported by the numbers. We've since found out that the claim about deficit reduction was tosh, via subsequent economic updates.

 

[medhead]

I also expect the spill motion to not be supported.

 

[burmans]

So what are people's predictions?

I am predicting that the spill motion would be unsuccessful, with a result of 73-29. Tony Abbott will try to spin that it is a significant victory for him. The media will no doubt say that the win is hollow, that there is still a lot of disgruntled members and will imply that 29 members supporting a spill, is massive.

Tony Abott's victory may be very short-lived if the polling %'s do not improve for himself or as a party. If the %'s do not improve, I would be expecting a spill later this year, Malcolm Turnbull will definitely 'go for broke' and announce his intentions early, try to gather enough support to become Australia's 29th Prime Minister. It will give him the best of 12 months to work the electorate before the next election.

Personally I don't see Malcolm Turnbull willing to become the next opposition minister, let alone waiting 5+ years to get that shot at becoming the PM. If the %'s don't improve by September - the Liberal Party knows they need to take that risk and accept Malcolm to to lead them to the next election - and this is the easiest way for Malcolm to be the PM and we know he wants it - who doesn't?

Your numbers are pretty reasonable though I think it will be slightly closer than that. But I definitely don't think this will be the end nor that Abbott will be there come next election unless he improves markedly, as far as I can see he's just prolonging the pain both for himself and the party.

 

[medhead]

I have managed to find this little story in my searching that outlines the debt position. It is interesting reading from June 2014. Couple of interesting number Australian debt as a % of revenue 50-60%, compared to my household debt @240%. Interest payments as a percentage of revenue about 3%. Compared to my interest payments at about 12% of revenue. I'd certainly like to have the government's ratios in terms of debt. Comparing to a household budget looks like a complete failure, I can't look forward to those types of number of 10 to 15 years.

Is Australia's government debt really as bad as Tony Abbott claims? | Business | The Guardian

 

[browski]

There's gold in here.
https://twitter.com/search?f=realtime&q=#ImStickingWithTony&src=hash

But here's a few beauties:

· #ImStickingWithTony because he has more men in his cabinet than Jeffrey Dahmer.
· sarah hanson-young ‏@sarahinthesen8 #ImStickingWithTony .... You bet you are... you bet I am.
· Dave Donovan ‏@davrosz #ImStickingWithTony because he is the only one who can solve the budget emergency he made up.
· Noel Hodda ‏@NoelHodda #ImStickingWithTony because he's made saying the same thing twice, saying the same thing twice, cool again. He's made it cool again.
· Tron Lord ‏@TRON_Lord #ImStickingWithTony because only he can confuse the definition of 'reset' with 'blow it up'
#ImStickingWithTony because he's calling for mature debate about tax. You know, like "Great big tax on everything".

 

[whatmeworry]

I don't understand how comparisons with the household budget is even a thing. My household debt is 240% of my annual income. So apparently I'm a bad economic manager.

Sometimes you got to spend money to make money.

 

[Hvr]

So Abbott has survived, for now. Be interesting to see if his performance improves or if today was merely delaying the inevitable whilst potential challengers gather the numbers.