The new strategies you need to find reward availability in 2025

[aspro2]

I've been feeling increasingly despondent about the whole situation, as someone who has to put in a lot of effort to acquire a useful number of points, and who has no scope to plan holidays at shortish notice. I was right royally f@ked by SQ last year, effectively losing the equivalent of over 200,000 points as a result of a mistake they made. It had been hard work to acquire those. And now I'm at a point where the physical discomfort of flying Y is substantial for anything greater than medium-haul...

 

[Flightseeker]

Qantas, ah Qantas. Such a sad remnant of it's old self. We have been around the world twice on points and have another booked in September in business. We even had a ride in First with Emirates on their 380. Those points were hard won, the seats hard to find and the foreign call center staff a nightmare to deal with. At least three times during the latest booking experience, a sector was cancelled due to their tardy ticketing. Quite simply, I would not advise anyone to collect a single Qantas point, whereas just a couple of years ago I would have endorsed the program. Australia's great shame, it's less than premier carrier. The program's focus is to make money for the airline, it is not there for the benefit of loyal customers. I'm not saying it should be altruistic, but it has lost its way.

 

[Human]

I’ve been seriously in the points game since about 2016 and in my opinion the three most significant setbacks that have happened in that time, probably in this order, have been the following:

1. The massive AmEx MR devaluation in 2019, where they went from 1 MR point per FF point to 2 MR points per FF point. At least they gave plenty of notice.
2. The trend (accelerated over the past couple of years) for airlines to make reward seats available only to their own frequent flyers.
3. Emirates massively increasing their carrier charges in 2022.

In that time there have also been some “sweet spots” made available which were not available before: chiefly, Qatar switching to Avios along with AmEx MR making Qatar a transfer partner (and off-peak redemptions still being, frankly, very cheap and relatively easy to come by outside of the northern Summer peak period).

Not being Qantas Platinum, long-haul redemptions on Qantas have never been a real option for me (though I’ve very recently used Qantas points to redeem First Class in both JAL and Emirates).

This is just my way of saying that it’s not all doom and gloom. Swings and roundabouts, yes. But to those willing to be flexible and nimble, it’s business as usual.

 

[zainman]

I’ve been seriously in the points game since about 2016 and in my opinion the three most significant setbacks that have happened in that time, probably in this order, have been the following:

1. The massive AmEx MR devaluation in 2019, where they went from 1 MR point per FF point to 2 MR points per FF point. At least they gave plenty of notice.
2. The trend (accelerated over the past couple of years) for airlines to make reward seats available only to their own frequent flyers.
3. Emirates massively increasing their carrier charges in 2022.

In that time there have also been some “sweet spots” made available which were not available before: chiefly, Qatar switching to Avios along with AmEx MR making Qatar a transfer partner (and off-peak redemptions still being, frankly, very cheap and relatively easy to come by outside of the northern Summer peak period).

Not being Qantas Platinum, long-haul redemptions on Qantas have never been a real option for me (though I’ve very recently used Qantas points to redeem First Class in both JAL and Emirates).

This is just my way of saying that it’s not all doom and gloom. Swings and roundabouts, yes. But to those willing to be flexible and nimble, it’s business as usual.

Forgot to mention atrocious carrier charges!! QF/EK are the worst in J/F

 

[elanshin]

Qantas, ah Qantas. Such a sad remnant of it's old self. We have been around the world twice on points and have another booked in September in business. We even had a ride in First with Emirates on their 380. Those points were hard won, the seats hard to find and the foreign call center staff a nightmare to deal with. At least three times during the latest booking experience, a sector was cancelled due to their tardy ticketing. Quite simply, I would not advise anyone to collect a single Qantas point, whereas just a couple of years ago I would have endorsed the program. Australia's great shame, it's less than premier carrier. The program's focus is to make money for the airline, it is not there for the benefit of loyal customers. I'm not saying it should be altruistic, but it has lost its way.

I wouldn't just focus on QF. They have their problems but this is globally a theme. QF is not the worst offender either in many aspects. I think it was just last week LH group announced their move to full dynamic pricing for their own group.

 

[BenSQ380]

As a WP I’ve not seen any difference in availability for some time, ie I see some premium classic availability then use a different browser without logging in and see the same.

The caret in the legend of benefit elaboration for WP on the main QF site is no longer there - in other words, preferential access is still a listed benefit but it is not defined as to what it means.

 

[Doctore1003]

There is zero evidence to support this argument about QFF (underlined), quite the opposite in fact:

“The savvy frequent flyers will still find a way to make the program work for them. But many will just give up and book a Classic Plus reward. They’ll also quite likely feel discouraged from bothering to continue earning Qantas points towards their next holiday. So, this strategy is risky for programs like Qantas Frequent Flyer in the long run.”

Qantas launched Classic Plus to increase member engagement, and their profit result last week showed 10% growth in points earned and redeemed, and encouraging signs of increased activity by people who have specifically booked Classic Plus.

See:
Qantas rolls out Classic Plus Flight Rewards

 

[clifford]

I wouldn't just focus on QF. They have their problems but this is globally a theme. QF is not the worst offender either in many aspects. I think it was just last week LH group announced their move to full dynamic pricing for their own group.

And, as Qantas has intimated, it will make further changes to QFF (eg move to a revenue based SC accrual program) later this year (they can't let VA outdo them)...

Any sensible member would be considering their defensive strategy right now, if they want to maintain/gain a particular status level for their next membership year. One only has to look at BA/IAG (as well as VA) for clues.

 

[clifford]

There is zero evidence to support this argument about QFF (underlined), quite the opposite in fact:

“The savvy frequent flyers will still find a way to make the program work for them. But many will just give up and book a Classic Plus reward. They’ll also quite likely feel discouraged from bothering to continue earning Qantas points towards their next holiday. So, this strategy is risky for programs like Qantas Frequent Flyer in the long run.”

Qantas launched Classic Plus to increase member engagement, and their profit result last week showed 10% growth in points earned and redeemed, and encouraging signs of increased activity by people who have specifically booked Classic Plus.

See:
Qantas rolls out Classic Plus Flight Rewards

I don't know where you're coming from with this, but clearly (in my mind at least), Qantas rolled this out to soak up the excess points that "Mr & Mrs Kettle" had accumulated and didn't know how to redeem them efficiently. They had all the toasters they needed, so this gave them a way to blow the rest of their points.

Smart marketing on Qantas' behalf, but to the detriment of their real frequent flyers.

Just my personal take on the matter. Everone is quite at liberty to use their points in any way that is legal (or otherwise).

 

[levelnine]

There is zero evidence to support this argument about QFF (underlined), quite the opposite in fact:

“The savvy frequent flyers will still find a way to make the program work for them. But many will just give up and book a Classic Plus reward. They’ll also quite likely feel discouraged from bothering to continue earning Qantas points towards their next holiday. So, this strategy is risky for programs like Qantas Frequent Flyer in the long run.”

Qantas launched Classic Plus to increase member engagement, and their profit result last week showed 10% growth in points earned and redeemed, and encouraging signs of increased activity by people who have specifically booked Classic Plus.

I've addressed your post here.

 

[MelbFlyer]

the very best strategy of all when it comes to finding seats is having points in a flexible points currency so that you can transfer the points into whatever programme has availability.

Whilst in theory this may be the best thing to retain flexibility, in practice, the problem is that you need significantly more points, as most of the time for "rewards" points not tied to a specific airline program, the transfer ratios are very poor.

For example, I have a NAB rewards card which I can transfer to the below partners, with the relevant ratios :
* VFF points - 2 NAB rewards points to 1 VFF point
* KF / AM Miles - 3 NAB rewards points to 1 KF / AM point

I recently booked a MEL to SIN business reward seat on SQ for 74k VFF points (148k NAB rewards points), but that same reward seat if booked via KF is 68.5k miles which equates to 205.5k NAB rewards points.

It's the same reward seat, but significantly more points via KF.

The advantage however with KF is that SQ have 5 daily flights and looking on their website (on the day my flight is later this year) they have business reward seat availability on 4 of those 5 flights.

On VFF there's only 2 flights which have business reward seat availability, so if you're very specific on timing or aircraft, then you'll have no choice but to eat up the extra points required for the same reward seat.

Same thing goes for VFF to KF - the ratio is 1.55:1 which is pretty much the same as 3:1 directly from NAB rewards.

Gone are the days of booking business reward seats 10-11 months in advance - and unfortunately for most people it's not easy to tell your boss "I'll be going to Europe or the U.S. for 4 weeks, 2 weeks from now".

It'll be moreso booking leave well in advance, then hoping some last minute reward seats pop-up 2 weeks out - it can happen, but it's far from ideal.

In hindsight, I'm glad I was able to book and redeem a business OWA in 2023 before all these devaluations and change in reward seat releases. I concede it will be very difficult moving forward.

 

[Human]

Whilst in theory this may be the best thing to retain flexibility, in practice, the problem is that you need significantly more points, as most of the time for "rewards" points not tied to a specific airline program, the transfer ratios are very poor.

But if the points per dollar earned is higher, it all comes out in the wash.

Take the example of AmEx Membership Rewards points. Yes, generally the transfer ratio is 2:1 for most programmes including Velocity and Qatar. This ratio is not "very poor" if you consider that with my AmEx Platinum I'm getting 2.25 MR points per $, and with my Platinum Edge I'm getting 3 MR points per $ (where I use it at supermarkets and petrol stations). So I'm getting more than 1 FF point (with the Platinum Edge, 1.5 FF points) per dollar spent. How can you say that the transfer ratio is "very poor"? What card do you use that earns more points than that?

Gone are the days of booking business reward seats 10-11 months in advance

As I wrote in Post #5 above, that statement is probably true when it comes to Qantas and Velocity points. It's demonstrably not true when it comes to KrisFlyer Miles, Asia Miles, Avios, etc.

... which gives all the more reason to prioritise flexible points currencies!

 

[drron]

Fortunately for us we have been very lucky getting J awards on SQ BNE-SIN as on occasions where there is only 1 flight available on VFF but often the flight we want.

 

[andye]

But if the points per dollar earned is higher, it all comes out in the wash.

Take the example of AmEx Membership Rewards points. Yes, generally the transfer ratio is 2:1 for most programmes including Velocity and Qatar. This ratio is not "very poor" if you consider that with my AmEx Platinum I'm getting 2.25 MR points per $, and with my Platinum Edge I'm getting 3 MR points per $ (where I use it at supermarkets and petrol stations). So I'm getting more than 1 FF point (with the Platinum Edge, 1.5 FF points) per dollar spent. How can you say that the transfer ratio is "very poor"? What card do you use that earns more points than that?


As I wrote in Post #5 above, that statement is probably true when it comes to Qantas and Velocity points. It's demonstrably not true when it comes to KrisFlyer Miles, Asia Miles, Avios, etc.

... which gives all the more reason to prioritise flexible points currencies!

But Amex MR did devalue. I used to be able to get 3 old MR/$ at the supermarket. This was worth 3 SQ or CX points (and even 4 with local champion)
Now I still get 3 new MR/$ the equivalent of 1 SQ or 1.5 CX

Some of this may have been driven by the value of the AUD over that time. Less evident for revenue fares as airfares in Aus are priced as high as the market will bear

 

[Human]

But Amex MR did devalue

... as I acknowledged in Post #23 above.

In fact, I would say that in all my years of playing the points game, the AmEx devaluation was far and away the worst thing that has ever happened as far as points and points programmes are concerned. Every setback that has happened since then has been a minor setback compared with that 2019 devaluation.

Nevertheless, it would be a very brave person who says that there's another points ecosystem that overall is better than AmEx MR. Citi, maybe? Doesn't have as many transfer partners. CommBank? Doesn't have as many transfer partners and its earning/transfer rate is hopeless. Marriott Bonvoy? But how do you get the points apart from earning them via credit card programmes? Avios? Ditto, and even Avios aren't as flexible as Membership Rewards points.

Despite the devaluation, AmEx Membership Rewards is still the points ecosystem of choice when it comes to earning points. It is to me, anyway.

 

[andye]

... as I acknowledged in Post #23 above.

In fact, I would say that in all my years of playing the points game, the AmEx devaluation was far and away the worst thing that has ever happened as far as points and points programmes are concerned. Every setback that has happened since then has been a minor setback compared with that 2019 devaluation.

Nevertheless, it would be a very brave person who says that there's another points ecosystem that overall is better than AmEx MR. Citi, maybe? Doesn't have as many transfer partners. CommBank? Doesn't have as many transfer partners and its earning/transfer rate is hopeless. Marriott Bonvoy? But how do you get the points apart from earning them via credit card programmes? Avios? Ditto, and even Avios aren't as flexible as Membership Rewards points.

Despite the devaluation, AmEx Membership Rewards is still the points ecosystem of choice when it comes to earning points. It is to me, anyway.

Agreed. Amex still well ahead of anything else I can use effectively but I still look back on the good old days

I did have a dual Diners before getting the Charge. With then 1.5 points/$ (multiple partners) on the DC and 0.625 AA on the MC (plus decent lounge access for primary and supps), it was a good combo especially when paired with an Edge.

(The customer service was a challenge though)