Tokyo Haneda slot - how will Virgin Operate it?

[Quickstatus]

What does ExpertFlyer suggest are the current loadings?

 

[henrus]

What does ExpertFlyer suggest are the current loadings?

I know seat maps are no indication of loads but VA77 is blocked on the first day, on the 2nd day of CNS-HND operations it looks like below.

It's also worth noting that row 6 could be showing blocked (I think it's reflecting my Gold status), rows 7-12 are for those with status meaning just 19 people have selected a regular (free) seat on the 2nd flight.

 

[simmomelb]

I know seat maps are no indication of loads but VA77 is blocked on the first day.

So it is, that's a little odd :/

The second flight out, as below for me.

 

[_flyer]

So it is, that's a little odd :/

The second flight out, as below for me.

These appear to be low loadings. I would have thought demand would have been much higher.

 

[Quickstatus]

Hard to know exactly with Expertflyer
Not a lot of passengers would make aircraft range a bit longer, even if the economics is in the toilet

 

[simmomelb]

These appear to be low loadings. I would have thought demand would have been much higher.

Yes, absolutely.
Some could say they have sold a lot of Lite fares, which won't have seats allocated until close to departure, but I think it's safe to assume very few Lite fares would be sold on this route.
Some who have bought a regular Choice fare and above may not have selected a seat whilst booking, but how many would that be on average, a few % if any?
CNS is likely the issue here - will be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

[Bagpuss]

These appear to be low loadings. I would have thought demand would have been much higher.

I wouldn't be surprised if such flights are heavily sold by (Japanese) travel operators. This means they would buy a number of seats per flights. However, a seat map isn't going to be of much use as they would only allow seat selection at checkin.

A lot of flights tend to reflect a half full seat map, but when check-in closes the flight is (near) full.

 

[simmomelb]

I wouldn't be surprised if such flights are heavily sold by (Japanese) travel operators. This means they would buy a number of seats per flights. However, a seat map isn't going to be of much use as they would only allow seat selection at checkin.

Now there is a very valid possibility, a great point

 

[N860CR]

They can give it back. They have been given 2? Extensions.

Well, yes. That would be the other option (and not the first time Virgin has pulled the pin on an idea before launch). I can’t find a reference but I’m fairly sure it was a definite no to any further extensions.

 

[Digicola]

Well, yes. That would be the other option (and not the first time Virgin has pulled the pin on an idea before launch). I can’t find a reference but I’m fairly sure it was a definite no to any further extensions.

I mean, surely they can get a minor extension for a factor that is outside their control (aka Boeing delay). Maybe they’re prepping the -700s to lay the groundwork to say « look we did our best but this isn’t our fault give us a couple of weeks. We’re dead set on launching this route pinky promise ».

 

[Saab34]

Perhaps just hand it back. Which means they don’t have to worry about ordering a wide body, and it’s damn clear now that United has this trans pacific network well and truly tied down now. Virgin operating pacific would just be a token anyway considering the scale of the others, ie what’s the point.

Likely some ego at stake here. They know that QF will get the slot and it will just boost the margin over the fence. I thought Virgin was done playing those games with QF.

 

[HS-TQE]

Perhaps just hand it back. Which means they don’t have to worry about ordering a wide body, and it’s damn clear now that United has this trans pacific network well and truly tied down now. Virgin operating pacific would just be a token anyway considering the scale of the others, ie what’s the point.

Likely some ego at stake here. They know that QF will get the slot and it will just boost the margin over the fence. I thought Virgin was done playing those games with QF.

It is a Queensland Government subsidised service via the AAIF. If it wasn't for Premier Annastacia and the North Queensland Tourism stumping up the money, I'm sure we'll all agree the slot would've lapsed and put up for tender back at the end of March this year.

Plus the UA SFO service is still subsidised, only funding 'beefed' up to ramp that service to daily despite the back and forth downgauging and upgauging between the 788 and 789. UA could've easily spent more financial risk into Queensland by starting BNE-LAX as 5x weekly whilst maintaining the subsidised SFO.

 

[simmomelb]

It is a Queensland Government subsidised service via the AAIF. If it wasn't for Premier Annastacia and the North Queensland Tourism stumping up the money, I'm sure we'll all agree the slot would've lapsed and put up for tender back at the end of March this year.

I agree. But it does give them more time to decide what they want to do with that slot and it sure could help the IPO, don't you think?

 

[Bagpuss]

I agree. But it does give them more time to decide what they want to do with that slot and it sure could help the IPO, don't you think?

I don't think flying to Japan has anything whatsoever to do with an IPO (which appears to be delayed).
If anything it would most likely be unfavorable as part of an IPO as new international routes involve setup costs and need to build up a traveler base so they normally take years or a number of months to become profitable.
Also, at the same time incorporating the B737 MAX is going to cost a fair bit of coin, the new maintenance facility at Perth airport isn't "free" and would likely involve commitment at the bare minimum would be engineering staffing.

(For an ideal IPO you would have completed major projects, not start them! For example, the best thing they could do is pay for the new B737 MAX outright ... That would be a massive possive spin ... Though I'm highly confident they'll all be leased.)

 

[docjames]

The subsidy will presumably underwrite enough of the losses.

Without corporate inside info, it is impossible to know scale of losses expected / subsidy required, what the operating requirements are with 737 or 783 vs 73M, what sales deals they have done with eg. Outbound Japanese tourism groups / operators / agents, it’s hard to know likely seat sales per flight. EF only useful where a seat has been selected - a highly variable measure.

Until actual published (valid) data comes out such as from eg. BITRE, will be hard to know for sure where they stand.

Agree they are unlikely to want to bail out now unless the losses look horrendous.

 

[Quickstatus]

surely they can get a minor extension for a factor that is outside their control (aka Boeing delay

The second extension was already given for 737-8Max delayed delivery

 

[MooTime]

I mean, surely they can get a minor extension for a factor that is outside their control (aka Boeing delay). Maybe they’re prepping the -700s to lay the groundwork to say « look we did our best but this isn’t our fault give us a couple of weeks. We’re dead set on launching this route pinky promise ».

An extension on certain basis of delay out of their contorl is very possible. even an apparant 2nd extension.

Perhaps just hand it back. Which means they don’t have to worry about ordering a wide body, and it’s damn clear now that United has this trans pacific network well and truly tied down now. Virgin operating pacific would just be a token anyway considering the scale of the others, ie what’s the point.

Likely some ego at stake here. They know that QF will get the slot and it will just boost the margin over the fence. I thought Virgin was done playing those games with QF.

What's the point of flying to Japan? what cos there's other airlines encompassing the space.....where could you ever fly without competition?

If VA lose the slot, it doesn't get handed over to QF just like that. There no guarantee to gain it.

anyhow I'm sure Jayne & co doing everything they can to get this CNS-HND, I'm sure it's top of their list atm, IPO 1st round tour in asia over for now.

 

[Bagpuss]

IPO 1st round tour in asia over for now.

I will seriously enjoy celebrating if this IPO doesn't happen soon cause almost every other post (seems to) references an IPO whch is already rumoured. Then again, if it delayed the comments on this forum will continue.

When is the Virgin Australia IPO?​

There’s no set date for the Virgin Australia IPO yet and the company will be waiting for the right market conditions. The listing had been rumoured for June 2023, but due to the instability caused by the global banking crisis, the float could be pushed back six months or more.

Virgin Australia IPO: everything you need to know about Virgin Australia

Australia’s second-biggest airline is expected to have one of the country’s largest listings in 2023. Find out everything we know ahead of the Virgin Australia IPO.

www.cityindex.com

 

[simmomelb]

I will seriously enjoy celebrating if this IPO doesn't happen soon cause almost every other post (seems to) references an IPO whch is already rumoured. Then again, if it delayed the comments on this forum will continue.

When is the Virgin Australia IPO?​

There’s no set date for the Virgin Australia IPO yet and the company will be waiting for the right market conditions. The listing had been rumoured for June 2023, but due to the instability caused by the global banking crisis, the float could be pushed back six months or more.

Virgin Australia IPO: everything you need to know about Virgin Australia

Australia’s second-biggest airline is expected to have one of the country’s largest listings in 2023. Find out everything we know ahead of the Virgin Australia IPO.

www.cityindex.com

This one is also quite interesting in the AFR from a couple of days back.

Virgin Australia cancels local IPO meetings, expected to reschedule

Bain Capital’s big IPO candidate Virgin Australia has cancelled this week’s one-on-one meetings with deep-pocketed institutional investors as well as group presentations to fundies, telling them it would look to reschedule.

www.afr.com

 

[MooTime]

Just checked.
Not a single day in 2023 where there are 2 J reward seats on CNS-HND.
Handful of single J rewards.