Upcoming Award Flight Tsunami?

[kangarooflyer88]

Given recent global developments which shall remain nameless, it would appear that we may be in for a recession shortly with major indices dropping at a rate quicker than COVID. At the same time, travel restrictions and changing sentiment towards leaders of political countries will likely result in fewer forward bookings to once popular destinations like the United States.

It would therefore seem that airlines may see a softening in demand not seen since the GFC or even COVID. While obviously that will be a tragedy for the travel and hospitality sector, one bright spot is the prospect of increased award availability as airlines look to fill seats that would otherwise go empty. Hence one must wonder whether we will see a tsunami of award seats become available not just on Qantas to destinations once unfathomable for mere mortals like Europe in business but programs like Velocity.

I thought I’d start this thread to speculate on whether this will be a reality and what it will mean for us frequent flyers. I’d also be interested to hear what past experiences can shed on this possibility. For instance, what did Qantas class award availability look like during the GFC?

-RooFlyer88

 

[Himeno]

I don't see a flood of award seats coming. Airlines will adjust flights according to demand. eg, they'll reduce capacity to the US and increase it elsewhere, like Canada, Asia or Europe.

The oompa loompa is going to cause a bigger downturn to the US then elsewhere. Other places will take a hit, but not as much as US travel demand.

 

[SYD]

Yep, not holding my breath for more award seats. But maybe just less demand for the few bones out there.

 

[Human]

Look, I don't think it's impossible that there may be a short-term bump in award availability on some routes while airlines work out how to deal with the drop in passenger numbers to the USA. On the other hand, it may well result in a decrease in award availability on non-USA routes as formerly-USA-bound tourists decide to travel to other destinations instead.

Increased award availability is one of a great many possibilities, but it's probably down the list of most likely possibilities. Airlines will cancel flights and routes rather than release a "tsunami" of seats.

 

[kangarooflyer88]

I don't see a flood of award seats coming. Airlines will adjust flights according to demand. eg, they'll reduce capacity to the US and increase it elsewhere, like Canada, Asia or Europe.

That is certainly a possibility although one must remember that during COVID airlines shaved off a ton of capacity and struggled to rebuild it later when demand picked up. Given that many airlines have placed large orders for aircraft to not only replace their aging fleet but also to increase capacity, one does have to wonder whether we would see a major downward shift in capacity network wide or whether airlines might redeploy said capacity elsewhere where demand may remain robust. At the same time, we are living in a unprecedented time where load factors on airlines are at any all time high (does anyone remember flying with aircraft as packed to the gills as they are today in recent memory?). So it may be the case that load factor goes from being at close to 100% down to maybe 75% or 80%. Certainly enough to make most routes profitable, but enough slack for the airlines to throw us a bone (or three) in terms of award availability.

In terms of the United States specifically, and look I'm going to keep politics out of this as politics is like poll tax, a discussion best left at the altar with your priest, there will be a softening in demand. However, I don't see the Australian airlines like Qantas cutting back service considering they don't offer heaps of service to the United States to begin with. My understanding is Qantas offers daily service from Sydney to LA, Dallas and JFK and Honolulu. Out of Melbourne it's LA and Dallas and Brisbane it's to LA. So that's what, 7 daily flights? More than likely competitors will scale back, particularly those without much of a presence like American or Delta. Combine this with a weakening Aussie dollar and it's likely that we will see demand soften but with Qantas having limited options. I suppose they could down gauge some of their aircraft from the A380 to the 787, but again I just don't see major routes like SYD to LAX being lopped off.

-RooFlyer88

-RooFlyer88

 

[scaredeycat]

If there is going to be a tsunami of anything it will more likely be consumer goods such as clothing and electronics that will suddenly become a lot more expensive in the American market.

 

[levelnine]

Too early to tell.

If we get a global recession where business travel craters & personal travel also drops due to job losses, we'll see a flood of award seats and bargain cash fares, similar to what occurred in the GFC.

However, if it turns out to be a minor blip or most governments prop up their economies with cash stimulus (closer to what occurred in COVID-19), there will be plenty of demand for travel, just to Europe/Asia over the US.