Upcoming Award Flight Tsunami?

[kangarooflyer88]

Given recent global developments which shall remain nameless, it would appear that we may be in for a recession shortly with major indices dropping at a rate quicker than COVID. At the same time, travel restrictions and changing sentiment towards leaders of political countries will likely result in fewer forward bookings to once popular destinations like the United States.

It would therefore seem that airlines may see a softening in demand not seen since the GFC or even COVID. While obviously that will be a tragedy for the travel and hospitality sector, one bright spot is the prospect of increased award availability as airlines look to fill seats that would otherwise go empty. Hence one must wonder whether we will see a tsunami of award seats become available not just on Qantas to destinations once unfathomable for mere mortals like Europe in business but programs like Velocity.

I thought I’d start this thread to speculate on whether this will be a reality and what it will mean for us frequent flyers. I’d also be interested to hear what past experiences can shed on this possibility. For instance, what did Qantas class award availability look like during the GFC?

-RooFlyer88

 

[Himeno]

I don't see a flood of award seats coming. Airlines will adjust flights according to demand. eg, they'll reduce capacity to the US and increase it elsewhere, like Canada, Asia or Europe.

The oompa loompa is going to cause a bigger downturn to the US then elsewhere. Other places will take a hit, but not as much as US travel demand.

 

[SYD]

Yep, not holding my breath for more award seats. But maybe just less demand for the few bones out there.

 

[Human]

Look, I don't think it's impossible that there may be a short-term bump in award availability on some routes while airlines work out how to deal with the drop in passenger numbers to the USA. On the other hand, it may well result in a decrease in award availability on non-USA routes as formerly-USA-bound tourists decide to travel to other destinations instead.

Increased award availability is one of a great many possibilities, but it's probably down the list of most likely possibilities. Airlines will cancel flights and routes rather than release a "tsunami" of seats.