Virgin Australia B737 Max 8

[Saab34]

MAX8 -8IA has been operating on the HND route seemingly flawlessly for a week now, any insight or data on recent load factors and overall performance compared to the 73G’s?

According to Expert Flyer in recent days
Outbound is still fairly light, 50-60 bodies.
Inbound the last few days have been 80-120

Northbound they seem to have have blocked many front Economy Seats, I assume for Weight snd Balance.

Either way…..the routes a dead duck, such a waste for a MAX that could be used much better elsewhere.

 

[Quickstatus]

the routes a dead duck

I'll give it till end of Japanese winter to see if it will work

 

[HS-TQE]

According to Expert Flyer in recent days
Outbound is still fairly light, 50-60 bodies.
Inbound the last few days have been 80-120

Northbound they seem to have have blocked many front Economy Seats, I assume for Weight snd Balance.

Either way…..the routes a dead duck, such a waste for a MAX that could be used much better elsewhere.

VA's CNS-NRT will last as long as Annastacia's AAIF contract dictates, unless there are stipulations in that separate agreement (for example: continual loads below <50% for x amount of months) that may end the taxpayer funding earlier than expected.

The AAIF agreement for each subsidised route isn't on a one size fits all (generally mostly 'commercial in confidence' and customised for each carrier - e.g Scoot's OOL-SIN service which only lasted one year, and JQ's OOL-NRT service lasted at least 15 months before it will be moved to BNE. (Assumedly the AAIF funding for JQ's OOL-NRT was transferred to the upcoming BNE-KIX service).

 

[lovestotravel]

According to Expert Flyer in recent days
Outbound is still fairly light, 50-60 bodies.
Inbound the last few days have been 80-120

Northbound they seem to have have blocked many front Economy Seats, I assume for Weight snd Balance.

Either way…..the routes a dead duck, such a waste for a MAX that could be used much better elsewhere.

Indeed - Route is pointless for VA

Narrowbody on this route is a fail

The route is a fail

Time for VA to give the slot up

Put the MAX on DPS or NAN routes which are going out full

 

[HS-TQE]

Edit: (Side note) Once again, as I've mentioned previously if it wasn't for Annastacia's taxpayer-funded AAIF money in partnership with the airports, Bain would've let the Haneda slot lapse back to the IASC in March.

As for Indonesia and Fiji, the Australian-Indonesian bilateral is maxed on the Australian end from the 4 main capitals (BNE, MEL (including AVV) SYD, and PER) Neither VA, QF or JQ can squeeze more services to DPS or CGK without either downgauging or axing services.

Fiji bilateral IIRC is also the same, although there is potential for OOL-NAN or even AVV-NAN (if it's not lumped with MEL like the Indonesian bilateral).

This only leaves CNS, MCY, TSV, etc etc. The later two can't really sustain year-round DPS services either (JQ attempted TSV and failed). MCY is more likely to be seasonal during the local winter (NS) as a 'Summer Escape' for Sunshine Coasters in the same way as the 'Winter Escape' for MCY-ABX service.

 

[Saab34]

Probably more retire some of the 20 year old 737s and slot a MAX into the fleet. Not much in the way of new routes they could launch, a low cost carrier would be more adventurous with these extended range aircraft. I think Bali has finally entered the overcapacity point, seeing some pullback and lighter flights recently

Regardless, the lease costs around a new MAX is 450k aud per month, certainly adds to the challenges when it only does 60 flights per month.

 

[HS-TQE]

Considering there are only 8 of the MAX8s due to be delivered between now and early 2025, and the first 4 of them eventually allocated and loaded in the booking systems on MEL/ADL/BNE to DPS/NAN/VLI (schedule subject to change) with some domestic rotations in-between, that really only frees up the scimitar-fitted -800s (currently used to DPS, NAN, etc) to be used elsewhere, perhaps BNE/PER or SYD/PER. It may mean VA could start refitting the ex-KLM 700s with the new seats with USB power (including the 8J cabin).

 

[justinbrett]

VA's CNS-NRT will last as long as Annastacia's AAIF contract dictates, unless there are stipulations in that separate agreement (for example: continual loads below <50% for x amount of months) that may end the taxpayer funding earlier than expected.

The AAIF agreement for each subsidised route isn't on a one size fits all (generally mostly 'commercial in confidence' and customised for each carrier - e.g Scoot's OOL-SIN service which only lasted one year, and JQ's OOL-NRT service lasted at least 15 months before it will be moved to BNE. (Assumedly the AAIF funding for JQ's OOL-NRT was transferred to the upcoming BNE-KIX service).

I think you're overstating the AAIF.

While we don't know the details - it's all commercial in confidence - we know how many airlines/routes it covers, and the total pie over 3 years is only 200 million. I did the maths in another thread but it worked out to be around $10 per seat.

So unless you think the subsidy is only covering losses (which is possible, but unlikely), I doubt that's enough to cover the kinds of losses VA are experiencing now. Perhaps they are breaking even at 120 pax, but I'd suggest not at 60.

Edit: (Side note) Once again, as I've mentioned previously if it wasn't for Annastacia's taxpayer-funded AAIF money in partnership with the airports, Bain would've let the Haneda slot lapse back to the IASC in March.

As for Indonesia and Fiji, the Australian-Indonesian bilateral is maxed on the Australian end from the 4 main capitals (BNE, MEL (including AVV) SYD, and PER) Neither VA, QF or JQ can squeeze more services to DPS or CGK without either downgauging or axing services.

Fiji bilateral IIRC is also the same, although there is potential for OOL-NAN or even AVV-NAN (if it's not lumped with MEL like the Indonesian bilateral).

This only leaves CNS, MCY, TSV, etc etc. The later two can't really sustain year-round DPS services either (JQ attempted TSV and failed). MCY is more likely to be seasonal during the local winter (NS) as a 'Summer Escape' for Sunshine Coasters in the same way as the 'Winter Escape' for MCY-ABX service.

The Fiji agreement doesn't include AVV so that would be uncapped.

There is 1 seat/week available on the Fiji-BNE/SYD/MEL/PER routes. Who knows, VA might take them up on that!

 

[Tom/PER]

According to Expert Flyer in recent days
Outbound is still fairly light, 50-60 bodies.
Inbound the last few days have been 80-120

Northbound they seem to have have blocked many front Economy Seats, I assume for Weight snd Balance.

Either way…..the routes a dead duck, such a waste for a MAX that could be used much better elsewhere.

Struth! At those figures maybe VA should just cap the flights and use -VBY/Z and as already suggested use the MAX on something more profitable. At least these 2 73G’s are owned by VA, so you’re not paying huge leasing costs.

Can scimitar fitted -800’s do DPS with a full load year round or do they have to take a payload hit? I know some flights recently have dropped into DRW for a splash n dash.

 

[Harrison_133]

According to Expert Flyer in recent days
Outbound is still fairly light, 50-60 bodies.
Inbound the last few days have been 80-120

Around 150 on HND-CNS tonight.

 

[HirafuHeartAttack]

I'll give it till end of Japanese winter to see if it will work

Yeah I'd agree with this. JQ to Tokyo/Osaka from cairns has historically been a killer in Winter and packed with board and ski bags. If pricing is competitive to that I can see the route doing better then. Arguably a better product with regards to *some* lounge access and elite benefits vs the JQ offering and similar seats.

 

[BNEFlyer]

Yeah I'd agree with this. JQ to Tokyo/Osaka from cairns has historically been a killer in Winter and packed with board and ski bags. If pricing is competitive to that I can see the route doing better then. Arguably a better product with regards to *some* lounge access and elite benefits vs the JQ offering and similar seats.

They'd have to offset the extra weight of ski gear by reducing capacity, or limiting the gear carried. The belly of a 737 obviously can't carry as much as a 787.

 

[AIRwin]

They'd have to offset the extra weight of ski gear by reducing capacity, or limiting the gear carried.

 

[jrfsp]

Struth! At those figures maybe VA should just cap the flights and use -VBY/Z and as already suggested use the MAX on something more profitable. At least these 2 73G’s are owned by VA, so you’re not paying huge leasing costs.

Can scimitar fitted -800’s do DPS with a full load year round or do they have to take a payload hit? I know some flights recently have dropped into DRW for a splash n dash.

Often a payload hit, which is why the MAXs would make more money here as unlike at HND, they will actually be able to fill the seats to DPS, or save money by not having to stop for fuel

 

[jrfsp]

View attachment 338295

Sounds like they will be unable to carry much additional luggage to HND - that will throw away a lot of the ski traffic

 

[AustraliaPoochie]

For Jrsfp, I had mentioned that earlier on.
My idea/thought is that the plane will need a lot of fuel on board for this particular route.
Maybe weight itself too would play an issue, apart from weight of fuel taken on in SYD and HND on return.

 

[BNEFlyer]

Sounds like they will be unable to carry much additional luggage to HND - that will throw away a lot of the ski traffic

If someone is carrying ski gear and they check in on the 3 hour dot they might be ok!

 

[Harrison_133]

Does anyone know when the second 737-8 is due to arrive?

8IB has now revealed itself in Seattle…

https://flic.kr/p/2oTAdhv

 

[Tom/PER]

Looks like -8IA went up to HND yesterday and didn’t return on VA78, guessing the return flight was cancelled as she’s gone tech.

FR24 has -VBZ operating today’s outbound VA77, but it’s looks to of been not departed and been CXLD.

 

[Harrison_133]

8IC has also been spotted, although not yet painted. So MAX #2 and #3 will arrive not too far apart from each other.

https://flic.kr/p/2oTBnDk