Virgin Australia Delays/Cancellations

[Bolthead]

Tuesday 11th VA540 OOL-SYD 1805 cancelled. Moved me to VA544 OOL-SYD 1905. And just when I thought I was going to get a J meal.

 

[Melburnian1]

Tuesday 11th VA540 OOL-SYD 1805 cancelled. Moved me to VA544 OOL-SYD 1905. And just when I thought I was going to get a J meal.

It's a Tuesday - slowest weekday for ticket sales on Australia's domestic airlines - so excuse my cynicism but this smells of 'a cancellation due to low bookings.'

 

[Bolthead]

It's a Tuesday - slowest weekday for ticket sales on Australia's domestic airlines - so excuse my cynicism but this smells of 'a cancellation due to low bookings.'

Most probably... they told me on the 4th Oct. (obviously not a last minute decision) It doesn't bother me that much.

 

[Quickstatus]

VA 5516 dep: 00:05 10/07/17 VA 352 would have got me there with plenty of time, but lately it's either disappeared somewhere or it's been delayed by, the latest was 78 mins 2-3 days ago. I just don't know if it will exist come July '17. I will have all boarding passes (pass-port check) given to me in BNE so no problem checking in.

p.s. I was thinking VA 342 or 346 would be the way to go. However, I see your point about the earlier flights.

G_d give me patience

I wonder what the loads are for the MEL-BNE, BNE-MEL routes?. Airlines have dynamically managed their supply by tactically cancelling flights at the last moment. The headline schedule is to some extent a virtual schedule. The actual schedule wont be known until the day of travel. It's hard to say and would require a close examination of seat loadings on a day to day basis. Of course some coal face reports would be invaluable.

 

[clifford]

VA have cancelled flight 262 CBR-MEL @ 6:25 on 7 November. I was booked on this flight to make a connection in MEL. I feel there would be insufficient time to make the connection using the later 8:40 flight, so I have cancelled the booking and made alternative arrangements, at some extra cost. Not sure why they would cancel this flight on a Monday morning?

 

[Quickstatus]

VA have cancelled flight 262 CBR-MEL @ 6:25 on 7 November. I was booked on this flight to make a connection in MEL. I feel there would be insufficient time to make the connection using the later 8:40 flight, so I have cancelled the booking and made alternative arrangements, at some extra cost. Not sure why they would cancel this flight on a Monday morning?

That route is usually operated by a mix of E190, ATR and occasionally B737. It may be because VA is withdrawing 5 of their E190?. They were supposed to replace them by flogging the B737 a bit harder. Just check your archives if this indeed was an E190 on your flight

 

[clifford]

That route is usually operated by a mix of E190, ATR and occasionally B737. It may be because VA is withdrawing 5 of their E190?. They were supposed to replace them by flogging the B737 a bit harder. Just check your archives if this indeed was an E190 on your flight

Yes, it was an E190 flight, but the strange thing is that the flight does not appear to have been cancelled on other days of that week, even though they are showing E190.

 

[Quickstatus]

Yes, it was an E190 flight, but the strange thing is that the flight does not appear to have been cancelled on other days of that week, even though they are showing E190.

The withdrawal of the E190 is being phased in. I think they were planning for 5 by the next month or so. the rest by 3 years
Here is some info:
Virgin Australia restructure to phase out Embraer E190 fleet, reduce ATR72 fleet; cut jobs; raise $1 billion capital – AviationWA

Though I would not discount dynamic load shedding

Have a look at other Mondays rather than other days of the week.

 

[clifford]

The withdrawal of the E190 is being phased in. I think they were planning for 5 by the next month or so. the rest by 3 years
Here is some info:
Virgin Australia restructure to phase out Embraer E190 fleet, reduce ATR72 fleet; cut jobs; raise $1 billion capital – AviationWA

Though I would not discount dynamic load shedding

Have a look at other Mondays rather than other days of the week.

Well, I've looked at Mondays (and other days) before and after 7 Nov, and that's the only date where my flight has been cancelled. Seemingly just a random thing. Just my luck! Wouldn't it be a bit early to cancel because of poor loadings?

However, it does make me vary wary of booking Virgin, especially where being on time is fairly important. In this case I have decided to overnight in Sydney and then take an early flight to MEL. If it's cancelled at least there will be another going quite soon.

And as for the ATR72's, the sooner they disappear the better. I've only been on a couple of flights with these things and they have both had MX problems.

 

[Quickstatus]

Well, I've looked at Mondays (and other days) before and after 7 Nov, and that's the only date where my flight has been cancelled. Seemingly just a random thing. Just my luck! Wouldn't it be a bit early to cancel because of poor loadings?

However, it does make me vary wary of booking Virgin, especially where being on time is fairly important. In this case I have decided to overnight in Sydney and then take an early flight to MEL. If it's cancelled at least there will be another going quite soon.

And as for the ATR72's, the sooner they disappear the better. I've only been on a couple of flights with these things and they have both had MX problems.

I too have thought that it would be too early to get a handle on flight loadings but Im no yield manager. The loading at the moment seem low - see below
Yes Va is not the only one that does it. The White Roo also do it.

As they seek to maximise revenue/lowering costs by pulling seats, the airlines' (whoever they are) published schedules are really only virtual schedules with a "TBC" on most of the flights.

You can see on Qantassource and VaSource that airlines cancel multiple flights just about everyday. That there little coverage in the mainstream media suggests that there are enough spare seats to "adequately" accomodate most stranded pax on other flights. Of course not all passenger itineraries can be adequately accommodated. Some like yourself have to pull out extra $$ at the late stage when prices are higher.

The other aspect of this is that by cancelling the early morning flight, the airline may not have to overnight a E190 crew in CBR. The First flight VA 256 CBR-MEL now is probably operated by the crew that will operate VA257 MEL-CBR 0700-0805, or VA628 SYD-CBR similar times.

 

[Melburnian1]

Quickstatus, extremely good analysis.

The one exception is that because many domestic bookings are made close to departure dates - think businessmen who travel at short notice - using ExpertFlyer or similar may not always give a good guide. ExpertFlyer also has maximum numbers of seats that it shows empty in each fare class, usually 4, 7 or 9 if I recall, so there might be 'seven' seats vacant or there might be '120'.

During some months flight cancellation rates have been above five per cent for at least one of the airlines on the busiest route, SYD - MEL - SYD.

This is an extraordinary rate of cancellations. Compare it to train operators that usually operate 98 or 99 per cent of timetabled services. This has to be, as you suggest, 'dynamic' - as in 'constantly changing' - load management: an attempt to lower their costs by operating as few flights as possible.

It can backfire if passengers en masse start to decide that 'the competitor' is less likely to cancel flights, as one AFF member discusses above.

 

[Quickstatus]

Yes that's why I think the airlines are to a degree running a virtual schedule for marketing purposes only especially on the high frequency routes. I had not thought of comparing with other high frequency operations like trains and buses. I would expect that regular cancellations of such operations would raise public comment. Unfortunately the public and mainstream media has not realised this is reduction in capacity by stealth.
Recent action by VA to restrict "Fly Ahead" benefit would give the airline additional control over their dynamic load management practices

 

[Melburnian1]

On Tuesday 11 October, VA569, the 1900 hours from SYD across to PER (A332 VH-XFC) was not airborne until 2059. It won;t be at the Perth airport gate until an expected 2229, 79 minutes tardy.

 

[clifford]

In my case, Virgin's "loss" was Qantas' "gain". After being advised of Virgin's cancellation, I checked award availability on the similarly timed QF flight. Guess what? There wasn't any! How surprising. One would have thought there would be quite a demand for seats on an early Monday morning flight CBR-MEL, with all the public servants and businessmen wanting to be in the city for the start of the business week.

Makes me think there was another reason for the cancellation on 7 November, which is almost 4 weeks from now.

 

[Quickstatus]

In my case, Virgin's "loss" was Qantas' "gain". After being advised of Virgin's cancellation, I checked award availability on the similarly timed QF flight. Guess what? There wasn't any! How surprising. One would have thought there would be quite a demand for seats on an early Monday morning flight CBR-MEL, with all the public servants and businessmen wanting to be in the city for the start of the business week.

Makes me think there was another reason for the cancellation on 7 November, which is almost 4 weeks from now.

Dont know. But maybe the traffic is inward to CBR. Earliest flight arrive there at 0805 which would fit in with the public service which does not start before before 0900. (Invisibility suit on)

But I still think its to do with the gradual withdrawal of the E190s from the fleet. While they may flog the B737 a bit harder, I think overall total seats will be reduced. Airlines dont like to give any hint of supply reduction. Marketing dept will give the impression of an airline being more capital efficient and replacing seat for seat but the reality is that they are reducing supply.

 

[Melburnian1]

While they may flog the B737 a bit harder, I think overall total seats will be reduced. Airlines dont like to give any hint of supply reduction. Marketing dept will give the impression of an airline being more capital efficient and replacing seat for seat but the reality is that they are reducing supply.

Quickstatus, I couldn't agree more. Airlines don't like doing this because in their public world, everything is built around 'success' which only comes second to the given of 'safety.' 'Failure' or 'loss of business' is not in their language, even though in reality over time airlines are unsuccessful businesses in the main. Ask a Mr Buffett!

On Wednesday 12 October, VA588, the early afternoon 1300 hours PER - MEL (A332 VH-XFJ) did not take off until 1526, so arrival is unlikely before 2140, 130 minutes behind the schedule.

 

[Melburnian1]

The very early morning 0610 hours from CNS down to SYD on Thursday 13 October, VA1406, was not airborne until 0556. A delayed arrival predicted for SYD at 0935, half an hour behind, is the predictable result. 'Endangered' (critically?) aircraft species E190 VH-ZPI is the comfortable conveyance.

Similar difficulties with timekeeping are bedevilling VA677, the early morning 0715 hours from MEL across to PER, which did not take off until 0854. Arrival in the west of A332 VH-XFD should be about 72 minutes behind at 0947.

 

[Melburnian1]

Later on Thursday 13 October, VA561, the mid afternoon 1406 hours from SYD across to PER is badly delayed, with takeoff at 1833. Arrival of A332 Vh-XFG is estimated at 2016, 241 minutes later than its timetabled 1615 hours at gate time.

 

[Jurahn]

Smoke haze from a number of prescribed burn-offs in WA has caused delays with some flights in/out of PER over the past few days.

 

[Melburnian1]

VA9159 is operating the extremely short sector from OOL to BNE on Friday 14 October (ATR72 VH-FVM). It is the 1630 departure that took off at 1714; it should arrive about 37 minutes late at 1737.