Virgin Australia FY results this Tuesday, what is expected?

[lovestotravel]

JNB has been tried and failed

If anything I expect something flying to/from SFO

2 x 777's ?

 

[Deleted member 29185]

More ATR's gets my money. Im also guessing the embraers will go as the new ATR come online

I'm now sticking pins in a little MarkD doll for suggesting such an abomination.

 

[smit0847]

JNB has been tried and failed

If anything I expect something flying to/from SFO

2 x 777's ?

God, don't jinx it! I would love SFO - such a nice airport (the dom part anyway)

Hopefully they either boost the AUH services or drop that pointless SYD-AUH service.

I doubt they will go head to head with JQ, but surely MEL-HNL-JFK could be an option? Even QF have admitted they make money on HNL and they have a 767 staggering over there.

I'd also love to see 737-8 J on the Pacific Island flights - Y+ is a tried and tested failure.

 

[seven3seven]

Just a side note - was in Melb lounge this afternoon and all flights were referred to as VA and not DJ. I knew it was coming (but nothing heard today in print).

 

[markis10]

JNB has been tried and failed

If anything I expect something flying to/from SFO

2 x 777's ?

I still thing India or China is on the cards, hooking up with VS, could also see the A330 replacing VS on the SYD HKG route, the 777 into KUL is only short term so something can be done. Hopefully the long overdue review of international services will be part of tomorrows results, whether there is growth versus the contraction at QF will be interesting.

 

[rtyuiop]

If they went India or China is that they'd need a new partner to go with any new flights. Having said that, a VA flight into Bangalore would sure be good for me.

 

[markis10]

If they went India or China is that they'd need a new partner to go with any new flights. Having said that, a VA flight into Bangalore would sure be good for me.

By India and China I mean VA metal, QF pulled out because they don't have the right aircraft for India, the 777 fits and VS are also targeting.

 

[Tuddy]

I still thing India or China is on the cards, hooking up with VS, could also see the A330 replacing VS on the SYD HKG route, the 777 into KUL is only short term so something can be done. Hopefully the long overdue review of international services will be part of tomorrows results, whether there is growth versus the contraction at QF will be interesting.

VS has long stated that they have no intention at all on bailing out of the SYD-HKG route as it makes money for them (although as an aside, I do hear sketchy reviews about their service on this route - in fact, all their routes). I expect we may hear of a new route or two soonish - or at least the reallocation of seats in some form or another. There is a second BNE-HTI flight from October onwards. There are 7 daily MEL-HBA flights over the summer and 3 daily SYD-HBA flights. However, there are also a few random additional flights on the system (on some dates, there are 7 BNE-ROK and 9 ROK-BNE flights; similar can be said for some of the CNS flights). So I'm curious as to where capacity is being added and subtracted. As always, I'm also curious to see what's happening in the regional markets in terms of where the ATRs are being sent. Since some of the new aircraft have come online, we've only seen ABX flights change over...perhaps something like TMW is in the wings? Perhaps additional PQQ flights - the current morning service is very poorly timed. Just my two cents...

 

[Tuddy]

By India and China I mean VA metal, QF pulled out because they don't have the right aircraft for India, the 777 fits and VS are also targeting.

Theoretically, in saying India would Mumbai be the assumption of where flights would go to? And with whom would they codeshare? Previously I would have suggested Kingfisher, but, well..that's not going to happen. And in China, PVG would be most logical - and QF and MU often have reasonably full flights - but is there enough room for VA as well (keep in mind too, there isn't much choice in terms of premium carrier with whom people could connect on to PEK etc.)

 

[markis10]

Why code share, VS operate into both Shanghai and Mumbai with their own metal, offering connections through to London as well as destination specific traffic.

 

[Tuddy]

Why code share, VS operate into both Shanghai and Mumbai with their own metal, offering connections through to London as well as destination specific traffic.

I'm referring moreso to domestic connections. China and India are both big markets, and the people flying VA aren't necessarily going to the endpoint of PVG or BOM respectively. They may be connecting on to other destinations within the two countries or beyond. I'm referring more to people connecting on to DEL, CCU, MAA, TRV, BLR and HYD in India (all large commercial centres with various connections to Australia) or people connecting to PEK, XIY, CKG, XMN, SZX, TZN etc. in China (again, all large commercial centres with various connections to Australia. It is fruitless to have flights to these large and growing countries without connections with local partners on - if this was to occur, there would be no reason for Australians to fly with VA to PVG (for example) if their end destination was XIY when they could have a seamless (or at least that's how it's advertised) on CA, MU or CZ. Similarly, it would only draw Chinese traffic from the PVG catchment, as opposed to catchment from the whole country. Whilst, yes, there may be a limited number of connections on to London on VS, this would essentially cannibalise the existing connections through AUH and SIN with EY and SQ - something I'm sure VA don't wish to see occur.

 

[markis10]

I think your missing the bigger picture, that is Australia to Europe traffic!

 

[rtyuiop]

I think that to get maximum value out of flying to India, you need to either be able to fly to a respectable number of large cities (like SQ) or have a domestic partner who could make connections work (like Jet for QF)...

 

[Tuddy]

I think your missing the bigger picture, that is Australia to Europe traffic!

No, not missing that at all. It's there - but I think Virgin see that they have themselves covered in serving that market through their agreements with SQ and EY. Sure, they could offer additional connections through PVG or BOM on VS - but the aim of any additional service to either of these ports would be to service the growing Chinese and Indian markets and harbour the economic links with Australia - as opposed to merely being a stopover point on the way to Europe.

 

[Tuddy]

I think that to get maximum value out of flying to India, you need to either be able to fly to a respectable number of large cities (like SQ) or have a domestic partner who could make connections work (like Jet for QF)...

Agree with you there - and I think in Virgin's case, the latter would need to be the path chosen as they don't currently have the a/c available to fly to a heap of cities. Would be interesting to see whom they choose should such a development in routes occur...

 

[markis10]

India has a local base to fill the seats that are not taken by the through connects, something the middle east and to a certain extent BKK and SIN don't have. By having a one leg VA and one leg VS partnership it also reduces load when things go wrong, each airline has only one hop to fix an aircraft gone tech.

 

[Tuddy]

India has a local base to fill the seats that are not taken by the through connects, something the middle east and to a certain extent BKK and SIN don't have. By having a one leg VA and one leg VS partnership it also reduces load when things go wrong, each airline has only one hop to fix an aircraft gone tech.

Markis, I understand what you're getting at - but the key here is looking at Virgin's long-term strategy, in line with EY and SQ partnerships. Yes, I'm acknowledging that connections could occur through India onto a VS flight - though I don't feel this would be the primary aim of any launch into the India market - it would be a secondary flow-on benefit. The aim of launching flights to India would be to fill the gap that currently exists through lack of direct flights from Australia and to connect to the Indian economy, with which Australia has growing connections.

 

[Comoman]

I heard more A330's and flights from Perth to Abu Dhabi maybe using 777 - not sure if A330 has the legs.

Heard this from crew last week as a rumour.

 

[cove]

Not much in profit if any. Setting up the changes from LCC,repaint,re-do interiors,lounges, J class start up are all expenses.
Their LCC model wasn't working too well but the transition to full service carrier is expensive. I am hoping that they are not bathed in red ink and no I am not expecting a dividend any time soon.

 

[Noob]

Not much in profit if any. Setting up the changes from LCC,repaint,re-do interiors,lounges, J class start up are all expenses.
Their LCC model wasn't working too well but the transition to full service carrier is expensive. I am hoping that they are not bathed in red ink and no I am not expecting a dividend any time soon.

As was stated at an earlier point in the rebrand, most of these changes are incremental costs:


"As well as a new booking system, the company has spent about $30 million to $35 million to upgrade its fleet to business class. Narayan [Virgin Australia, CFO] describes that as “incremental”. “We had five fare classes and the top end was too overpriced and you didn’t actually get enough for it,” he says. “Within Australia, people travel economy or business, they don’t travel premium economy.” (AFR, 2012)

"Over the coming year, we have about a dozen aircraft coming in, mostly to replace existing ones," he explains. "So with the new aircraft you order them with the black leather instead of red leather. The incremental cost of that is very small. You have to pay for the seats anyway," he says.
"Same thing with lounges. Our Brisbane and Melbourne lounges were due for a refurbish. The only incremental cost is in refurbishing to a better standard. So we're getting a big bang for a relatively few bucks." (Flight Global, 2011)

(AFR, 2012) Following the signs
(Flight Global, 2011) Interview: Virgin Australia chief executive John Borghetti