Virgin Australia & Newcastle Airport

[Mattg]

Inaugural flights next week are only half full:
New Zealand flights not yet full but airline happy with response

Given that Virgin has not commented on the loads, I'm curious as to how this newspaper got the data? What kind of "analysis of Virgin's online booking system" would tell them the exact number of seats left to be sold?

 

[AviationNZ]

Given that Virgin has not commented on the loads, I'm curious as to how this newspaper got the data? What kind of "analysis of Virgin's online booking system" would tell them the exact number of seats left to be sold?

My guess is they’ve (incorrectly) looked at fare bucket availability, and simply added the numbers together. For example, the flights could’ve been showing Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 L9 V9 S0 G0 and they’ve assumed this means there’s 63 seats left (9 x 7), when that’s completely wrong.

 

[Mattg]

My guess is they’ve (incorrectly) looked at fare bucket availability, and simply added the numbers together. For example, the flights could’ve been showing Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 L9 V9 S0 G0 and they’ve assumed this means there’s 63 seats left (9 x 7), when that’s completely wrong.

I also assume they've done something like this. Or perhaps someone with staff travel privileges looked up the loading?
But unless they can clarify where the information came from, I'm going to assume it's completely wrong.

FWIW, this is the Expert Flyer availability for the inaugural AKL-NTL flight: J3 C3 D3 I0 Y7 B7 H7 K7 L7 E7 N7 V7 Q7 T7 S7 M7 U7

 

[YSSY]

The airport was upgraded for this a few years ago - fitted “for not with”, so they have the setup but just not the equipment.

As for border force staffing, this would be on demand - as what already happens for international RAAF flights from the same airfield. For three flights a week they’ll just come up from Sydney.

So In actual fact this won’t cost much at all.

There is a significant border force presence in the Port of Newcastle to clear the 10+ ships that arrive per day, so I guess there is a local office.

 

[YSSY]

Nope, I’ll still drive down the M1 and depart from the Flounge at SYD thanks

Agreed.

 

[justinbrett]

There is a significant border force presence in the Port of Newcastle to clear the 10+ ships that arrive per day, so I guess there is a local office.

It’s a different arm of border force - the maritime and aviation teams are different. For Newcastle flights the guys definitely come up from Sydney.

 

[clipped_wings]

Darn. I was hoping Virgin would announce they were starting NTL-LAX aboard an F-18...........

 

[CPMaverick]

My guess is they’ve (incorrectly) looked at fare bucket availability, and simply added the numbers together. For example, the flights could’ve been showing Y9 B9 H9 K9 M9 L9 V9 S0 G0 and they’ve assumed this means there’s 63 seats left (9 x 7), when that’s completely wrong.

I think you give them too much credit. Getting to fare buckets, even if they misinterpret them, requires some level of effort. From the text of the article, my guess is they simply counted empty seats on the seat map.

The first Auckland to Newcastle flight was at 57 per cent capacity with 97 seats taken and 71 seats free.

 

[Mattg]

I think you give them too much credit. Getting to fare buckets, even if they misinterpret them, requires some level of effort. From the text of the article, my guess is they simply counted empty seats on the seat map.

Ha - bingo, I think you've got it!

I just counted and the seat map for VA198 on 22/11 shows exactly 97 seats allocated.

Would somebody care to explain to the Newcastle Herald that seat maps are not a reliable indicator of loads?

To make things even more incorrect, the seat map shows the up-front rows as occupied when in reality they're probably just blocked.

 

[Bagpuss]

Not that the seat map is a true reflection.

 

[Saab34]

Going off the data, most Tasman flights are about 60-80% full. 120 pax would be about reasonable considering it’s a thin market and general oversupply of seats across the Tasman.

Probably a route Tiger would do better from. Could kickstart MEL-NTL again to then continue on.

I think VA would have been better off doing a ADL-AKL or CNS-AKL. ANZ have a 787 on Adelaide so demand obviously exists.

 

[Mattg]

I think VA would have been better off doing a ADL-AKL or CNS-AKL. ANZ have a 787 on Adelaide so demand obviously exists.

Or CBR-AKL!

 

[Bagpuss]

I think VA would have been better off doing a ADL-AKL or CNS-AKL. ANZ have a 787 on Adelaide so demand obviously exists.

NTL have been keen to get in the international segment for some time hence I expect Virgin selected this route. I wouldn't be surprised if there have been incentives from NTL airport.

Announcing in July a seasonal end of year service was probably a little bit late and they could have operated for just a few weeks (circa 13th December to 1st February)

Overall, at least they have tried and see what comes of it. New routes always take a while to settle in.

 

[Bagpuss]

Not that I’m an airline network planner, but I keep thinking the NTL - AKL needs feeder traffic and it’s not going to get that with VA’s NTL network of BNE and mainly daily MEL flight.

Would could maybe work is possibly making it a PER - NTL - AKL - NTL PER flight.

Perth flights to New Zealand have poor connections and this would solve that. Also it opens up the PER - NTL domestic leg too.

 

[AIRwin]

Inaugural flight ran almost 3 hours late...

 

[Bagpuss]

Inaugural flight ran almost 3 hours late...

VA198 (AKL - NTL) arrived 2 hours late

VA199 (NTL - AKL) is running 16 hours and 45 minutes late. Supposed to leave NTL 22/11/2018 at 7:30pm, scheduled for 23/11/2018 at 12:15pm.

 

[Mattg]

VA198 (AKL - NTL) arrived 2 hours late

VA199 (NTL - AKL) is running 16 hours and 45 minutes late. Supposed to leave NTL 22/11/2018 at 7:30pm, scheduled for 23/11/2018 at 12:15pm.

Yikes!

Any idea of the reason for the delay? Could it be crew hours, or was there something wrong with the aircraft?

 

[Bagpuss]

Yikes!

Any idea of the reason for the delay? Could it be crew hours, or was there something wrong with the aircraft?

The operating aircraft, VH-YIR operated VA113 OOL - AKL. It left OOL late into AKL as it was scheduled to arrive at 17:15, but arrived at 18:04.

Though VA198 AKL - NTL was scheduled to leave at 17:10. So it’s scheduled departure time is actually prior the arrival time of the previous flight. This sometimes mean another aircraft has gone tech and this aircraft has operated the flight as a delay.

This doesn’t explain the delay out of NTL. Though I would say the aircraft went tech, but it could have been crew hours or crew sickness.

If an aircraft goes tech at NTL they bring the parts down from BNE on the next scheduled service. Looking at the next BNE service it arrives at 11:10am which weighs into the tech scenario.

 

[Mattg]

The operating aircraft, VH-YIR operated VA113 OOL - AKL. It left OOL late into AKL as it was scheduled to arrive at 17:15, but arrived at 18:04.

Though VA198 AKL - NTL was scheduled to leave at 17:10. So it’s scheduled departure time is actually prior the arrival time of the previous flight. This sometimes mean another aircraft has gone tech and this aircraft has operated the flight as a delay.

This doesn’t explain the delay out of NTL. Though I would say the aircraft went tech, but it could have been crew hours or crew sickness.

If an aircraft goes tech at NTL they bring the parts down from BNE on the next scheduled service. Looking at the next BNE service it arrives at 11:10am which weighs into the tech scenario.

I was thinking it may be crew hours because the AKL-based crew would have signed on around ~4pm based on the original departure time of VA198. The same crew would be returning to AKL on the return flight, and based on the inbound flight delay, having them operate the return flight would mean they arrived back in AKL at ~2.30am. I wonder what the duty limit is?

 

[justinbrett]

It’s fires near the airport. I’m stuck in Melbourne as my flight was cancelled yesterday. Trying again this morning but virgin have just cancelled another flight.

Meadowie Road and Richardson Road are both closed.

I just want to get home for the weekend