"... we'll shortly announce a major investment to improve our Frequent Flyer program"

[hb13]

Hopefully, the alternative hypothesis is the release of CRs (limited as they can be in longhaul premium cabins) returns to pre-Covid patterns (ie get in early or have WP status or better). But Classic+ will be there for the masses 3xx days out - first in best dress (despite the poor value), and then P+P for the desperate and seatless?

I'd love for that to be true, but I actually believe CRs will soon be completely phased out and this is the first step in that process.

QF has for a few years now only thought about the bottom line - unfortunately Vanessa Hudson seems to be worse than Joyce in that regard.

 

[CaptJCool]

Speculation is right. The majority of discussion has been predictions of doom and gloom but a critical eye cast across what has actually been leaked to date just shows a new rewards tier that is unlikely to change much if anything (other than to soak up the excess points of those too impatient to find a "classic" CR).

It’s problematic when the only international European or USA CR rewards available are 11 months away ….

Nada zero zilch

Let’s not blame the impatient customer

 

[hb13]

Speculation is right. The majority of discussion has been predictions of doom and gloom but a critical eye cast across what has actually been leaked to date just shows a new rewards tier that is unlikely to change much if anything (other than to soak up the excess points of those too impatient to find a "classic" CR).

'Classic CRs' are extremely hard to come by. The leaks show that the new tier will be priced at a point which is out of reach for many.

The prediction of myself and many others is that those 'Classic CRs' will dwindle even more to a point where it is impossible to find them.

Post automatically merged: Apr 3, 2024

It’s problematic when the only international European or USA CR rewards available are 11 months away ….

Nada zero zilch

Let’s not blame the impatient customer

Spot on.

 

[am0985]

Really a lot of this hinges on what Qantas do with Classic Rewards.

I'm not sure it makes much sense for them to severely curtail them. Remember QFF is a very profitable business for them, it's a very different situation to if it wasn't. We don't necessarily get a sense of that on this forum because we disproportionately extract the most value from it, but Qantas won't want to kill the goose that lays the golden egg.

Classic + rewards would make it at least a million points to LHR for a family of 4 in economy. I just don't think this will be feasible for most families. Lots of families really value the economy awards to Europe as they're a very achievable way of flying to Europe on the cheap.

In J, CR seats are pretty meagre as it is. There isn't even that many seats to cut on most routes (save a few eg Jakarta) outside timed mass releases of seats which are a fairly recent thing. Will it really make much sense for them to curtail them much further?

If this decreases total points in circulation due to members using huge numbers of points on these seats, it might even be a net positive IF Classic Rewards stay fairly stable.

 

[33kft]

Let’s not blame the impatient customer

There's no blame, it's a simple statement. There's another tier for those not prepared to wait.
If only there were a pithier description for such a customer....

 

[33kft]

The prediction of myself and many others is that those 'Classic CRs' will dwindle even more to a point where it is impossible to find them.

Why? at the moment there are two options - keep hunting for a CR, or spend 0.6cpp on P+P. Now there will be 3 options, with the mid-tier offering a very mild positive return on point value for J at least, unless you're acquiring at 1.5cpp or higher.

The only logical outcome is some of the demand from CR that wouldn't buy in at 0.6cpp will do so at 1.5cpp, and you'll have less demand for CR. Is there a reasoned argument as to why that would not be the case (other than speculation that QF will reduce the number of CR seats, which is a fairly pointless debate, they could do that at any time with or without this tier and you'd still be worse off).

The only argument I could imagine would be one of yield management, but QF didn't have to make any way for the 0.6cpp P+P inventory, so what makes us think that the 1cpp inventory would be much different? Yes, for some premium seats at 1.5cpp they might need to negotiate between CR, CR+ and full revenue but again, no proof that this reduces the number of CR seats, it's not that different to sale fares, there will just be buckets of availability to suit QF's revenue targets, which they've already signalled a hit to in order to accommodate this new tier. And let's not forget the revenue earned in selling the points in the first instance as well as the liability relief in burning them, so it's not just revenue per seat as a single metric that they're going to be tracking.

 

[p--and--t]

Lots of Nostadamus wannabes on AFF

 

[RichardMEL]

Lots of Nostadamus wannabes on AFF

Given the accuracy of Nosty himself - as most like to interpret his Quatraines - is the "wannabees" part required?

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

If they want to add in a 'bad value' cash in of points to bleed out people who amassed a load of points, want 'ease' of access to first / business then fair enough.

If they mess with the standard (albeit harder to get exactly what/when you want) usage of points i'll move away from the program.

if the AFR report is right i'll never use that terribly low value, but thats just me, I accrue about 400k every 18 months and use them for one trip each 18 months in comfort to EU.

 

[SYD]

'Classic CRs' are extremely hard to come by.

Specifically international longhaul, especially premium cabin seats - which is what most of us here covet.

There are of course a shed load of domestic whY and Biz CRs available on most days and flights, even at relatively short notice. Their availability doesn’t seem to have gone the same way as QFi post covid.

 

[RichardMEL]

Well, while QFi capacity may be near pre-covid levels, demand has still been high, and most airlines in a similar boat have been pushing yield both because they can, but also to try and recoup a bit from those pandemic years - and this has restricted availability.

However, that demand is slowing for various reasons - so will this lead potentially to more CR availability over time? Hard to know (and that does not factor in any impact of C+).

QFd has been pretty high with a fair amount of capacity on many routes. Yeah less widebodies as we know, but still reasonable capacity - plus relatively few purchase J outright domestic, so that gives more scope for U availability and upgrades. Again, cost of living, interest rates etc have reduced domestic demand too I should think - so that again would be a factor.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Well, while QFi capacity may be near pre-covid levels, demand has still been high, and most airlines in a similar boat have been pushing yield both because they can, but also to try and recoup a bit from those pandemic years - and this has restricted availability.

However, that demand is slowing for various reasons - so will this lead potentially to more CR availability over time? Hard to know (and that does not factor in any impact of C+).

QFd has been pretty high with a fair amount of capacity on many routes. Yeah less widebodies as we know, but still reasonable capacity - plus relatively few purchase J outright domestic, so that gives more scope for U availability and upgrades. Again, cost of living, interest rates etc have reduced domestic demand too I should think - so that again would be a factor.

As someone with alot of points but low status due to infrequency of travel I can tell you I basically never see Qantas as an option to me for international travel

 

[levelnine]

For those in this thread who can't possibly see how this could turn out bad, look at every US airline loyalty program.

They all followed this path. They introduced a new redemption tier that set points at roughly 1.5c/pt (though that's USD, not AUD) alongside their saver tier. They then started to move more and more awards to that 1.5c/pt tier. Now for some airlines, that's basically all you can ever get short of a unicorn (ie Delta). United and American are better, but finding the old saver rates on American is getting very hard. United is the last of the big three with any sort of commitment to releasing saver seats for unsold inventory close to departure.

Americans basically no longer redeem their credit card points on US airlines except for domestic travel or economy travel. The long haul premium travel rates are simply too extortionate. The key difference from Australia is that Americans can transfer their credit card points to a wealth of foreign programs that still offer value. That's a lot harder to do, especially at favourable conversion rates, in Australia.

Edit: The same thing also happened in Canada if you think it could only happen in the US.

 

[Jousams]

I agree totally !
Compare QFF with the United Mileage Plus reward engine - the latter is so good !

Playing devils advocate here; in the last 12 months, I have helped 7 friends secure CR bookings that they otherwise wouldn’t have due to the difficulty of using the QFF search tools, relative complexity of booking and/or making use of CR release they they didn’t know they could do as a WP.

I think the issues with QFF give us, who have a good idea what we’re doing, access to availability that others are unable (or unwilling to put in the effort) to get. You make things easier, I don't think it improves things for the average AFF member.

 

[hb13]

Why? at the moment there are two options - keep hunting for a CR, or spend 0.6cpp on P+P. Now there will be 3 options, with the mid-tier offering a very mild positive return on point value for J at least, unless you're acquiring at 1.5cpp or higher.

The only logical outcome is some of the demand from CR that wouldn't buy in at 0.6cpp will do so at 1.5cpp, and you'll have less demand for CR. Is there a reasoned argument as to why that would not be the case (other than speculation that QF will reduce the number of CR seats, which is a fairly pointless debate, they could do that at any time with or without this tier and you'd still be worse off).

The only argument I could imagine would be one of yield management, but QF didn't have to make any way for the 0.6cpp P+P inventory, so what makes us think that the 1cpp inventory would be much different? Yes, for some premium seats at 1.5cpp they might need to negotiate between CR, CR+ and full revenue but again, no proof that this reduces the number of CR seats, it's not that different to sale fares, there will just be buckets of availability to suit QF's revenue targets, which they've already signalled a hit to in order to accommodate this new tier. And let's not forget the revenue earned in selling the points in the first instance as well as the liability relief in burning them, so it's not just revenue per seat as a single metric that they're going to be tracking.

Ummmm money? That's why. And if that doesn't convince you, precedent. Every airline that introduces a new tier has effectively gutted their 'saver' award seats. Look at the US, Canada and even SQ closer to home. This will make Qantas a ton more money and so that's why they do it.

Firstly, the majority of people who collect QF points don't know how to use them properly or find great deals, so to QF, the revenue generated from that will continue and grow. But now, they'll make redeeming significantly more expensive, helping their bottom line. I'd be shocked if you ever saw another F award seat available at classic CR levels again - they are a unicorn as we speak.

Secondly, Qantas has gone through supposedly one of their 'toughest periods' with all the senate hearings, their apologies, their wrongdoing etc etc etc. They've basically done whatever they wanted, stuffed all their customers over, killed the competition off and didn't care. They got dragged through senate hearings but what was the result? Absolutely zero punishment or consequences.

They know they are effectively untouchable and know that consumers really have no other options. Making the programme more valuable for their shareholders and much more negative for their customers won't affect them - so why not do it? And mind you, I'm not saying others wouldn't do the same - QF just knows they'll get away with it.

Until people vote with their feet and stop using the scheme, nothing will change.

 

[elanshin]

For those in this thread who can't possibly see how this could turn out bad, look at every US airline loyalty program.

They all followed this path. They introduced a new redemption tier that set points at roughly 1.5c/pt (though that's USD, not AUD) alongside their saver tier. They then started to move more and more awards to that 1.5c/pt tier. Now for some airlines, that's basically all you can ever get short of a unicorn (ie Delta). United and American are better, but finding the old saver rates on American is getting very hard. United is the last of the big three with any sort of commitment to releasing saver seats for unsold inventory close to departure.

Americans basically no longer redeem their credit card points on US airlines except for domestic travel or economy travel. The long haul premium travel rates are simply too extortionate. The key difference from Australia is that Americans can transfer their credit card points to a wealth of foreign programs that still offer value. That's a lot harder to do, especially at favourable conversion rates, in Australia.

Edit: The same thing also happened in Canada if you think it could only happen in the US.

I agree that in the long run, we will most likely go down this path. If anyone was thinking any different they're probably kidding themselves. This is even before any of this was leaked.

It was always likely to be how long can you continue using it for in the same manner. Luckily, i do think it'll still be a few years before they enact the next part of this move towards US rewards programs. If they try this now, they'd effectively kill QFF with all the bad PR this will generate on top of their current negative image.

 

[ChrisMars]

To me, Qantas started to kill CR the moment they introduce PC/PC+: huge incentive to collect points AND huge incentive to spend it on Qantas metal. That's not sustainable.

 

[equus]

To me, Qantas started to kill CR the moment they introduce PC/PC+: huge incentive to collect points AND huge incentive to spend it on Qantas metal. That's not sustainable.

Don't see any correlation. PC/PC+ makes no difference to the ability to generate non-flying points, or to spend them on CR. It only adds some small status benefit / incentive for infrequent flyers. Anyone flying enough to make a serious difference would get the status anyway.
Anyone generating enough points to actually gain / retain status predominately from CR redemptions has to have huge amounts of time to fly in inconvenient times to non-desirable destinations, given the difficulty of getting CRs. If they are using P+P redemption levels, then the amount of points revenue for QF they are generating makes them as good as cash customers gaining status.

 

[equus]

To me, Qantas started to kill CR the moment they...;;

For me, Qantas started to kill CR the moment they started marketing redemptions as somehow being a useable alternative to cash for anybody, rather than what they really were - an opportunity for loyal customers to pick up undesirable and unsold seats cheap to travel when no-body else really wanted them. Now that there are very few that nobody wants (and lots more people willing to pay for anything), and the expectations have been set unrealistically - it is no wonder everybody is disappointed.

Qantas marketing says - look Classic Rewards table, 253,000 points return to Europe in business. Member interprets this as - churn a few cards and I will book for school holidays.

Reality - that chart never said anything about where or when, or even if - we actually only make those available if we can't sell them (and by the way, most of the time that will be too close to departure to suit you). As a sop to keep the marketing wheel turning, we will occasionally make a single such award unicorn available to dangle the bait (but that won't help the family of 4).

I actually think the biggest killer for the mums and dads out there has been the formalisation of the P1 / WP request system and the bot. Before that, seats were released on a schedule (and a little earlier for the higher status). When those on high status couldn't commit far enough ahead to take those seats, they became available to those without status. Now QF can simply not release the seats at all (but have the yield management rules that would have released them in place), and wait for a P1 / WP to request them. This has kept their higher status members a little happier, and they can still point to the same number of FF seats being redeemed, it is just that even more of them are now only for those with status.

 

[RichardMEL]

Yes but that is aspirational marketing 101. This is reinforced by "travel hack" type sjtes advertising "Fly J to Europe for $400!" headlines. Same thing.