What is Virgin Australia's strategy (post-administration)?

[HS-TQE]

There are a number of very successful, very profitable airlines that only operate narrow bodies and do so by being disciplined and not diverting resources into expensive long haul routes in very competitive markets with dubious profitability. I’m thinking Southwest, Easyjet and Ryanair.

The later two are pure LCC/ULCCs. Southwest is pretty much in the "Value Carrier" space with VA/Batik Group minus the 8/12 seater recliner J cabins.

 

[justinbrett]

I can see a strategy of up to 5 small long ranger wide body (787-9 probably is the ideal choice) working. Flying AUS-DOH-LHR in the QR/BA/IB/VA EJB and then AUS-HND. You can do those 2 routes daily still have a spare that flies SYD-PER once a day maybe. The strategy probably won’t work if it’s not part of a metal-neutral JV.

You’d never know. If QR is seriously interested and fails to get more slots it might lease aircraft to VA at deep discount to incentivize that to happen. Since in the EJB everyone shares revenue so it’s effectively as good as QR itself flying.

I can't see VA being let into the QR/BA JV. I think there's probably a good chance of QR and VA being allowed a JV but that wouldn't include BA, so QR would have to choose. Even under the QR/BA JV they aren't allowed overlapping routes so SYD is excluded (either as origin or destination).

I also think it's highly unlikely BA would switch from QF to VA, you may as well dissolve oneworld; and despite a lot of commentary, relations between QF and BA are much better than they were a decade ago. It would be somewhat ironic if QF were to switch to VS in retaliation.

As for the wet lease from QR to VA, the current approvals don't allow overlapping routes, so QR would have to give up one or two of the big four and VA take over. Would QR want to do that?

 

[jase05]

I can't see VA being let into the QR/BA JV. I think there's probably a good chance of QR and VA being allowed a JV but that wouldn't include BA, so QR would have to choose. Even under the QR/BA JV they aren't allowed overlapping routes so SYD is excluded (either as origin or destination).

I also think it's highly unlikely BA would switch from QF to VA, you may as well dissolve oneworld; and despite a lot of commentary, relations between QF and BA are much better than they were a decade ago. It would be somewhat ironic if QF were to switch to VS in retaliation.

As for the wet lease from QR to VA, the current approvals don't allow overlapping routes, so QR would have to give up one or two of the big four and VA take over. Would QR want to do that?

Yeah BA has a pretty good relationship with QF but I guess it depends on what their masters want at the end of the day.
Can’t see it happening any time soon but I can see a point in time where perhaps QR forms a breakaway group. The landscape may look very different in 10 years time

 

[BNEFlyer]

There are a number of very successful, very profitable airlines that only operate narrow bodies and do so by being disciplined and not diverting resources into expensive long haul routes in very competitive markets with dubious profitability. I’m thinking Southwest, Easyjet and Ryanair.

JetBlue is probably the best example of that.

They operate narrowbodies only (E190/A220/A320/A321). The A220 is used on 5-6 hour trans-cons, the A321N is used to UK/Europe from JFK/BOS and to northern South America from JFK.

 

[HS-TQE]

QR investment and wetlease one or two aircraft? VA flight to DOH? Maybe HND?

Japanese bilateral doesn't allow for wetleases out of HND. Has to be on their own aircraft.

As stated in another post, QR has 3x ex-VA 77Ws, all still in VA config, and 2 of those 3 are regularly used in QR service on short/medium haul international into South East Asia.

QR could just lease those 3 VA config 77Ws back to VA and base them out of BNE for the 2nd BNE÷DOH and BNE-HND if the long running speculation of QR buying a equity stake in VA does eventuate.

 

[justinbrett]

Yeah BA has a pretty good relationship with QF but I guess it depends on what their masters want at the end of the day.
Can’t see it happening any time soon but I can see a point in time where perhaps QR forms a breakaway group. The landscape may look very different in 10 years time

I’m not so sure on that. From our part of the world we focus on the Kangaroo route but for the UK, Trans Atlantic is far more important, and I can’t see BA cutting its ties with AA. It would require a complete break up of oneworld which I really don’t see happening. In any case QR isn’t particularly pro oneworld, it has more alliance carve outs than most (ie lounge policy)

That said, I wouldn’t rule out the QF/EK alliance breaking up, which then removes the hostilities between QR and QF (QR actually has nothing against QF itself, it’s only because they partner with EK, their arch rival).

I would imagine the QF/BA relationship will continue to improve after sunrise, with more QF seats into LHR and many after connections.

 

[Saab34]

Virgin did a great job with its long haul product, it’s sad that they might never enter that arena again. I want the product back, but we also want long term viability. It’s a tough call but it’s probably better they stay away. Unless United pulls back capacity and Virgin takes that in a revenue share agreement.

Sadly they are just too late to the party when it comes to many markets, already established competition, Virgin enters and they just flood the market, nobody makes $$.

Doha and USA would work. Won’t be this decade unless QR gets this coming in the coming years.

 

[ben95]

I can't see VA being let into the QR/BA JV. I think there's probably a good chance of QR and VA being allowed a JV but that wouldn't include BA, so QR would have to choose.

Keep in mind though QR owns part of IAG which owns BA/IB. I don’t see BA getting too cozy with QF anytime soon just because of Oneworld. Oneworld didn’t stop QF from ditching QR and teaming up with EK so why would the reverse be true now?

Even under the QR/BA JV they aren't allowed overlapping routes so SYD is excluded (either as origin or destination).

Not true anymore. In 2023 the JV was revised to include SYD and include IB’s network.

I would imagine the QF/BA relationship will continue to improve after sunrise, with more QF seats into LHR and many after connections.

Or deteriorate further? Sunrise would be a direct competition against the AU-EU JV which IAG and its 25% owner is a member of. Seem unlikely that BA would want to take a few domestic/intra Europe interline/codeshare scraps from QF vs revenue share from a metal-neutral JV.

 

[ben95]

Sadly they are just too late to the party when it comes to many markets, already established competition, Virgin enters and they just flood the market, nobody makes $$.

That’s why being part of an JV or go to a slot restricted market are the safest bet, or you need to have very very deep pockets to survive a capacity war against the incumbent in an open skies market - VA1 thought it’s previous owner HNA were that deep pocket it needed but that turns out HNA couldn’t even save itself.

If you look at routes where VA1.0’s wide body fleet made money - it was in the US in a JV with DL. I have no doubt the HND route would also be profitable from BNE had it been given the chance.

 

[HS-TQE]

The market conditions at the time I would guess is that neither DL nor VA would've survived the market as sole competitors back in the early 2010s had both decided to go on their own back then.

Fast forward 14 years later and with VA withdrawing from the market under new owners and DL deciding to ramp SYD to seasonal double daily, DL is now is winding back their SYD service from double daily to 10 weekly as the Queensland Government taxpayers and BNE stump up the AAIF money to restart the Queensland-LAX market despite the low Australian $ affecting demand on the Australian POS as many look to other markets such as North Asia (Japan, S. Korea) or the traditional SE Asia markets.

 

[justinbrett]

Keep in mind though QR owns part of IAG which owns BA/IB. I don’t see BA getting too cozy with QF anytime soon just because of Oneworld. Oneworld didn’t stop QF from ditching QR and teaming up with EK so why would the reverse be true now?

QF didn't ditch QR, it made the deal with EK before QR joined oneworld.

And it's not a matter of being cosy. It's status quo, which seems to be working well for both airlines. BA and QF are not enemies. Frenemies maybe. BA codeshares on a number of QFi flights, including HKG and BKK; not to mention all the domestic routes. Right now, you can book LHR-HKG-SYD on BA's website flying BA & QF metal, and pretend it's 2012 again.

There is zero chance of a wider JV between QF & BA, but sometimes rivals can play nice for mutual benefit - a great example is QF & NZ.

Or deteriorate further? Sunrise would be a direct competition against the AU-EU JV which IAG and its 25% owner is a member of. Seem unlikely that BA would want to take a few domestic/intra Europe interline/codeshare scraps from QF vs revenue share from a metal-neutral JV.

But it's going to happen anyway (and is already happening via PER & SIN). BA cutting off QF doesn't stop those sunrise flights - perhaps QF goes to VS in retaliation if it does. But I really doubt events will be that dramatic. BA will take the business from QF and continue competing on long haul.

That’s why being part of an JV or go to a slot restricted market are the safest bet, or you need to have very very deep pockets to survive a capacity war against the incumbent in an open skies market - VA1 thought it’s previous owner HNA were that deep pocket it needed but that turns out HNA couldn’t even save itself.

If you look at routes where VA1.0’s wide body fleet made money - it was in the US in a JV with DL. I have no doubt the HND route would also be profitable from BNE had it been given the chance.

Apart from the fact I think it's pie in the sky to think VA metal will be landing in Europe anytime in the next decade, if it does - ACCC may well block any future JV, that's why these only last for 5 years at a time. In reality QR doesn't need BA or VA, and EK doesn't need QF.

 

[p--and--t]

Keep in mind though QR owns part of IAG which owns BA/IB. I don’t see BA getting too cozy with QF anytime soon just because of Oneworld. Oneworld didn’t stop QF from ditching QR and teaming up with EK so why would the reverse be true now?

Not true. QR was not in OW when the deal was struck. False assumptions

 

[Saab34]

Some recent offers might indicate some market softening. Triple Status credits in the June/July, and a sale today targeting travel July School Holidays and into August.

 

[RooFlyer]

Not true. QR was not in OW when the deal was struck. False assumptions

You are correct, although QR was in Oneworld when the QF-EK relationship was renewed for another 5 years. Its what drove QR and VA together.

 

[AIRwin]

sale today targeting travel July School Holidays and into August

Happy Days!

 

[Ansett Nostalgic]

VA had the best J product on the HKG-MEL sector and it was a shame it didn't last.

 

[p--and--t]

VA had the best J product on the HKG-MEL sector and it was a shame it didn't last.

Maybe you need to change your moniker to VA nostalgic

 

[Saab34]

I remember the HKG operation alone lost $130m over a few short years. Certainly a big number for 2 flights a day.

 

[serfty]

I remember the HKG operation alone lost $130m over a few short years. Certainly a big number for 2 flights a day.

Unlike transpacific which apparently made money.

I agree with others; in it's day "The Business" was the best trans-Pacific J product out there.

 

[HS-TQE]

Unlike transpacific which apparently made money.

I agree with others; in it's day "The Business" was the best trans-Pacific J product out there.

It could be argued if it wasn't for the DL partnership and eventual JV initially formed under then-CEO Godfrey (as V Australìa), both carriers would've withdrawn earlier (leading back to.a QF/UA duopoly). AA at the time didn't fly their metal to Australia and was relying entirely on QF codeshares.