What routes should QF fly?

[ChrisCunard]

Hence one reason why Qantas really needs a OneWorld partner with a large regional network, enter MH

Fair point, although I am specifically noting flights out of PER many of which I think would be profitable for QF.

 

[ChrisCunard]

Yes, but there are also quite a number of new flights/destinations that weren't being flown then (the map seems to be from the very early 2000s):

BNE-LAX
SYD-DFW
SYD-PVG (on own metal)
SIN-BOM
SYD-EZE
CNS-POM (on own metal)
plus there's now many more codeshares (on AA) for domestic flights in the US.

So while we have lost some, we've gained others. You can't expect QF to fly on routes that lose money.

True, however I am specifically noting flights out of PER in my example.

PER has lost out on QF's shrinking market.

Flights out of PER from other carriers tend to feel inflated due to lack of competition - something that a "national" airline could counter.

For example, competition to Dubai is non-existent, flights to Thailand, Malaysia have little alternative than Thai Airways or Malaysian and SAA have a monopoly (which QF participates on) to South Africa from PER.

I'd suggest that if there's enough traffic to sustain flights from JNB to SYD using a 744 then there'd be sufficient for JNB - PER, the demographics show just how many South Africans are migrating to Perth. If it's currently sustained on tourism to Sydney than what about flights that start from other destinations - eg: MEL - JNB --- if there wasn't enough traffic then run the 744 via Perth to fill it up. I'm sure MEL pax would prefer to go via PER than via SYD.

 

[browski]

Lets do the sums on this? Lets say each one of the ex-pats flies home once per year. That means to fill 300 seats a day you would need 109500 ex-pats in the area. This is of course assume all 300 a day would want to fly to a single destination and all want to take their turn at flying home to even things out.

This is a silly argument. Based on your premise, there would be no aussie flights to Christchurch.[/QUOTE]

Reality is Emirates has ~10 flights a day to 4 or 5 Australian cities, so Qantas would have no a hope in hell of filling a single aircraft a day.

For starters EK flights from MEL-DXB are in excess of $2000 - that is more expensive then a MEL-LHR ticket.
Secondly, there are no One World flights other than the CX flights; and only the one ex-Mel has good connections.
Thirdly, every single EK flight from the east coast is an overnight flight, with only the CX flight from MEL and the TG flight from SYD able to get you there during daylight hours.
Ergo, plenty of scope for one flight per day.[/QUOTE]

As for connection options, why would Qantas want to connect with those airlines in the gulf?

Looking at them individually lets start with CX. Can write this connection off straight away because NO ONE will fly to Dubai on Qantas then CX to Hong Kong when both clearly fly direct to Hong Kong from multiple Australian cities

You've obviously never done a multi city city/continent trip.

Kingfisher, would be better to connect in Singapore which is Qantas's major O/S hub.

Air Berlin, rumor has it Qantas will change German flights to Berlin when the new Berlin opens next year, so that's where Qantas will connect with them. In the meantime Bangkok is a more direct connection point.

S7 would think that like Air Berlin Bangkok would be a more logical connection point.

BA, why would passengers want to change aircraft in Dubai when there are already 6 BA/Qantas through flights a day through other ports. One more connection would make SFA difference.

And lastly Royal Jordanian, yes good connection to get to Jordan, but beyond Jordan it would mean changing twice. In fact if Qantas were to add a middle east destination Amman would be the perfect port thus allowing access to Royal Jordanian with a single change rather than trying to compete with Emirates or Ethiad in their own back yard.

None of these points are valid. Once you get out and about, you'll see that passengers want choice. Based upon your logic, VA should not fly to Abu Dhabi. I think the absence of a QF flight on the DXB route is more out of spite than based upon a business decision. QF cannot bring themselves to acknowledge that DXB exists. For goodness sake, in recent years, we had QF flight numbers to AUH, BAH, BEY, AMM - but not to DXB!
I suspect good old JetStar will belatedly get the nod for this route, shame though.[/QUOTE]

 

[dajop]

PER has lost out on QF's shrinking market. I'm sure MEL pax would prefer to go via PER than via SYD.

Why should QF bother with PER, when they struggle to make MEL services work for them on their own metal?

PER has lost out on QF's shrinking market. I'm sure MEL pax would prefer to go via PER than via SYD.

It may be counter intuitive due to the way we look at maps, but due to the polar route there isn't very much difference at all between flying times from MEL-JNB whether via SYD or PER. The thing that is bad about flying through SYD is seeing MEL airport a mere 11km away, knowing you have to spend another 4 hrs to travel that 11km.

 

[medhead]

merely suggesting perth doesn't have the economic spending power to sustain more flights.

If it would be more profitable for qantas to fly these suggested routes, don't you think they would already be doing it?

I might be direct and not sugar coat what i say, but that doesn't mean i'm trolling. you obviously haven't seen a real troll at work.

Clearly you have no idea about the state of the Australian economy.

 

[coyote25]

I'm going to second the MEL-DRW suggestion.

Also agree with the thoughts on why JQ will fly to Greece instead of QF and be hugely successful, at least from Melbourne!

I'd love to know more about Air New Zealand flies AKL-LA-NYC-LHR

 

[ajw373]

This is a silly argument. Based on your premise, there would be no aussie flights to Christchurch.

No the argument isn't silly, the original premise that there are hoards of expats so a flight could be justified is what is silly. Simple fact is there isn't and other airlines have much better options and would kill a single flight a day route to Australia from another airline.

For starters EK flights from MEL-DXB are in excess of $2000 - that is more expensive then a MEL-LHR ticket.
Secondly, there are no One World flights other than the CX flights; and only the one ex-Mel has good connections.
Thirdly, every single EK flight from the east coast is an overnight flight, with only the CX flight from MEL and the TG flight from SYD able to get you there during daylight hours.
Ergo, plenty of scope for one flight per day.

Don't follow any of the logic here. We were talking about CX to from Dubai to Hong Long, why would someone fly via Dubai to get to Hong Kong?

You've obviously never done a multi city city/continent trip.

You are very wrong I have done many. When doing so I don't expect to be on the same airline all the way.

None of these points are valid. Once you get out and about, you'll see that passengers want choice. Based upon your logic, VA should not fly to Abu Dhabi. I think the absence of a QF flight on the DXB route is more out of spite than based upon a business decision. QF cannot bring themselves to acknowledge that DXB exists. For goodness sake, in recent years, we had QF flight numbers to AUH, BAH, BEY, AMM - but not to DXB!
I suspect good old JetStar will belatedly get the nod for this route, shame though.

Bzzt all my points were 100% valid. If one is going to Berlin and want's to fly Air Berlin they will want to fly the shortest possible route, which is NOT via Dubai. As for VA my logic is not floored here, unless I am mistaken they are in a code share agreement with Ethiad, so more or less have full access to Ethiad's network via Abu Dahbi and vice versa, so the flights make perfect sense.

If Qantas could tie up with someone and gain access to their network then yes it would make perfect sense to have flights, hence my comment that if the Middle East is to be a Qantas destination it needs to be Amman to access Royal Jordania's network, or they need to forge a closer relationship with either Emirates or Gulf. Cannot see either of them happening anytime soon.

Doubt Jetstar will fly to Dubai anytime soon. At the end of the day it is a place people go to get somewhere else. Sure some may stay and for some it may be an end destination but for the bulk it is a via point. Same too with Abu Dahbi and to a certain extent Singapore. Geography is an advantage the middle eastern and SE Asian carriers have that Qantas can never hope to have. We are more or less at the end of the road, not a hub like those airlines operate out of.

 

[ajw373]

Clearly you have no idea about the state of the Australian economy.

His second, more poininant comment is 100% valid though. If there was money to be made Qantas would be onto it like a rat up a drain pipe.

 

[medhead]

His second, more poininant comment is 100% valid though. If there was money to be made Qantas would be onto it like a rat up a drain pipe.

Not really. (40% maybe) I think qantas have been happy making [more] money flying Perth business people overseas via the east coast, instead of direct.

 

[Simsy85]

MEL-DRW

Credit where credit is due, Qantas do fly MEL-DRW......

 

[Simsy85]

I'm going to second the MEL-DRW suggestion.

Also agree with the thoughts on why JQ will fly to Greece instead of QF and be hugely successful, at least from Melbourne!

I'd love to know more about Air New Zealand flies AKL-LA-NYC-LHR

As per my previous post, they already do fly MEL-DRW, sometimes if your lucky, they even fly the other way

 

[Joshua]

As per my previous post, they already do fly MEL-DRW, sometimes if your lucky, they even fly the other way

To be fair they only started a few weeks ago but it does show they are not a one way street, removing routes never to return. Hopefully the same goes for PER-NRT. Another that had been mentioned as an alternate hub was for a return for the SYD-PEK route which they dropped a couple years back. PVG is where the money is of course.

You would think it makes sense to link up with partner hubs like AMM but you do have to wonder what the market is like into the middle east when emirates and others are so strong. Codeshares are probably the best option.

Honestly, isn't a big part of the problem the lack of 789's? Sure the 788's will open up the JQ network but won't the stretched 900s do the same for QF? They can't just be replacing 767s to HNL.

 

[browski]

No the argument isn't silly, the original premise that there are hoards of expats so a flight could be justified is what is silly. Simple fact is there isn't and other airlines have much better options and would kill a single flight a day route to Australia from another airline.




Don't follow any of the logic here. We were talking about CX to from Dubai to Hong Long, why would someone fly via Dubai to get to Hong Kong?



You are very wrong I have done many. When doing so I don't expect to be on the same airline all the way.



Bzzt all my points were 100% valid. If one is going to Berlin and want's to fly Air Berlin they will want to fly the shortest possible route, which is NOT via Dubai. As for VA my logic is not floored here, unless I am mistaken they are in a code share agreement with Ethiad, so more or less have full access to Ethiad's network via Abu Dahbi and vice versa, so the flights make perfect sense.

If Qantas could tie up with someone and gain access to their network then yes it would make perfect sense to have flights, hence my comment that if the Middle East is to be a Qantas destination it needs to be Amman to access Royal Jordania's network, or they need to forge a closer relationship with either Emirates or Gulf. Cannot see either of them happening anytime soon.

Doubt Jetstar will fly to Dubai anytime soon. At the end of the day it is a place people go to get somewhere else. Sure some may stay and for some it may be an end destination but for the bulk it is a via point. Same too with Abu Dahbi and to a certain extent Singapore. Geography is an advantage the middle eastern and SE Asian carriers have that Qantas can never hope to have. We are more or less at the end of the road, not a hub like those airlines operate out of.

So, who is flying CX from HKG-DXB?
Who is flying SIN-DXB on SQ
....and who is flying Royal Brunei from Bandar Seri Begawan to DXB

.....also whilst arguing the negative case with poor arguments will win you friends in the federal Liberal Party........ staying on topic with your own suggestions will assist the thread.

 

[Simsy85]

*pops a bag of popcorn in the microwave*

This just got interesting

 

[ajw373]

So, who is flying CX from HKG-DXB?
Who is flying SIN-DXB on SQ
....and who is flying Royal Brunei from Bandar Seri Begawan to DXB

.....also whilst arguing the negative case with poor arguments will win you friends in the federal Liberal Party........ staying on topic with your own suggestions will assist the thread.

Not quite sure what your smoking, I have put forward some very logical arguments and have been very much on-topic explaining in very simple terms why Qantas does not fly to places like Dubai. One would say that making personal attacks such as you have just done is a clear sign of desperation and trying to divert attention away from the topic.

As for the other ports you mention above, you may well note that both are MASSIVE regional hubs. So I have no doubt the people they are flying to Dubai have originated from within or are traveling to ports in the region. In the case of Hong Kong, the China region and Singapore the SE asian region. The old spoke and hub network system is as old as aviation itself and is, as I said one of the reasons Qantas cannot justify flying to places like Dubai or Abu Dhabi, but could well justify flying to hub posts served by it's partners such as Royal Jordanian, Air Berlin or maybe even Iberia. Our location means that Qantas can only really justify flying spoke legs connecting to partner hubs, or high volume point to point city pairs as they do now. The only place Australia is a natural hub for is the Pacific, and appart from NZ the pacific region generates stuff all traffic.

As for Royal Brunei at a pinch I would say it might be because Brunei is a Muslim country, so clearly many of it's country people would be holidaying or doing business in the gulf region where Islam originates from. You may also notice they fly to Jeddah too. On top of that they are very much a niche airline and not mainstream like SQ, EK, QF etc.

 

[docjames]

I'd love to know more about Air New Zealand flies AKL-LA-NYC-LHR

No NYC. It's AKL-LAX-LHR. From AKL the difference between AKL-HKG-LHR and AKL-LAX-LHR is iirc about 30mins flying time only.

NYC would be pointless - QF have downguaged from a 744 to a 330 on the LAX-NYC sector, NZ have even less feed into LAX that would sufficiently fill a 744 or 777 LAX-NYC. The US wont allow US domestic carriage without a connecting international sector.

 

[ChrisCunard]

Why should QF bother with PER, when they struggle to make MEL services work for them on their own metal?

It may be counter intuitive due to the way we look at maps, but due to the polar route there isn't very much difference at all between flying times from MEL-JNB whether via SYD or PER. The thing that is bad about flying through SYD is seeing MEL airport a mere 11km away, knowing you have to spend another 4 hrs to travel that 11km.

Without having access to QF's figures on this, perhaps MEL-PER-JNB would work because 1) MEL pax wouldn't care if it were PER or SYD they transit, 2) domestic pax could fill the empty space on the 744 to PER and 3) at PER the plane could be filled with PER pax who could fly QF rather than SA.

Just a thought.

 

[Simo]

I would like to see flights from ISA to CNS and also MCY to TSV and CNS.

All flights from MCY all go south to SYD and MEL.

 

[browski]

As for the other ports you mention above, you may well note that both are MASSIVE regional hubs. So I have no doubt the people they are flying to Dubai have originated from within or are traveling to ports in the region. In the case of Hong Kong, the China region and Singapore the SE asian region. The old spoke and hub network system is as old as aviation itself and is, as I said one of the reasons Qantas cannot justify flying to places like Dubai or Abu Dhabi, but could well justify flying to hub posts served by it's partners such as Royal Jordanian, Air Berlin or maybe even Iberia. Our location means that Qantas can only really justify flying spoke legs connecting to partner hubs, or high volume point to point city pairs as they do now. The only place Australia is a natural hub for is the Pacific, and appart from NZ the pacific region generates stuff all traffic.

The problem with the hub and spoke analogy in this instance is that the distances make it ineffective.
So let's look at SQ in SIN as an example. The 4 populous countries in SE Asia are Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand. Each of those countries have multiple carriers (EK and the home carrier) flying non-stop daily flights into DXB. (sometimes twice daily. PR, GA, MH, TG and of course EK all fly thes non-stop routes. So it is unlikely, (unless in a permanent price war) that citizens from those countries would opt for SQ over the non-stop options.

..........yet none-the-less SQ still manage a daily service to DXB. The reason for this is 3 fold (and actually nothing to do with spoke and hub).
1. Citizens of those nearby countries (other than Thailand) want the option of flying a Star Alliance Carrier, so they may be willing to take an indirect flight.
2. There is a huge population of Australian and New Zealand travellers (business, tourist and expats) who fly SQ via SIN because they have no FF relationship with EK (or VA/EY)
3. SQ on alternate days flies from DXB onto RUH and CAI (I think) and therefore may collect extra pax with these routes as their final destination.

So it is quite obvious that point 1 and 2 are the keys. Therefore if you gave aussie/kiwi pax the option of a non-stop Qantas One World option daily out of Oz; it would fill.

To be fair and to stay on topic, we are still awaiting your own suggestions for the OP as to which routes QF should fly.

 

[ajw373]

To be fair and to stay on topic, we are still awaiting your own suggestions for the OP as to which routes QF should fly.

If you actually read what I wrote I made a few suggestions. Amman to tie up with Royal Jordanian was one and I agreed the rumored move of Qantas from Frankfurt to Berlin made sense too.

Domestically I would like to see Qantas return to some of the ports that have been Jetstared, in particular the Gold Coast.

As for getting off topic I don't think debating the merits of weather a route would work or not is off topic. On that front I think our debate has been done to death, neither of us will convince the other so lets agree to disagree on weather Dubai would work for Qantas.

Though next time your in a check-in line for a Singapore or Emirates flight in particular have a close look at the baggage tags of your fellow passengers. Also if your only going as far as the hub point take note of how many fellow passengers are at the luggage belt with you. Will give you an idea of how many people are going elsewhere (my experience about 75%) and how many are ending their journey at the hub location.