What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

The other strange one is SGD vs AUD. How would the Singapore economy be stronger?

Apples and oranges. It's economy is not at all dependent on commodities so in many ways is very different to the Australian economy. Besides that, the SGD is neither fixed nor freely floated (like the AUD). It's value is managed by the SG government, as much as it can. SGD has devalued against USD (by about 15%), but nowhere near as much as AUD.
 
Those who transfer Aussie dollars to the US: what company do you use? I'm looking at World First.
 
I wouldn't worry too much! Japan is fairly 'cheap' these days - even when the Yen was about 77-80 to the AUD in 2011/12 the prices were comparable to what you'd pay in Australia.


As against when it was 280 Yen to the AUD.

I got to update several FX charts, AUD/JPY and AUD/DEM. Luckily the ceiling was quite high in Australia Square.

We stopped updating that wall chart as it got to the stage we'd have to cut a hole through the desks on either side of the room.

Ah the good old days when the joke was:

"An old Opal miner walks into a bar at the 'Diggers & Dealers' and asks for a beer"

The topless bar maid replies; "That'll be 1,000 Yen thanks Luv!"
 
Besides that, the SGD is neither fixed nor freely floated (like the AUD). It's value is managed by the SG government, as much as it can. SGD has devalued against USD (by about 15%), but nowhere near as much as AUD.
They have a secret formula, and it's based on a basket of currencies. Earlier this year, they decided that it should have less coupling to the USD. They don't really use currencies or interest rates as tools for their economy.
 
I don't know why many people seem surprised at the fall in the AUD. This was always going to happen; the only question was when. I'm surprised that it held up so long.
I'm not surprised its fallen. It was 110. I'm not impressed it's fallen this much.
 
Perhaps a better question would be - What will the level be when it stabilizes and begins to slowly recover?

Happy wandering

Fred
 
Ah.. must be in the Aussie in me rubbing off! USD/GBP dropped as I arrived and now that I've left it's going up again!
 
Markets tonight should be up a lot. All the doom and gloom merchants will have a night off. The question is whether the $AUD gets swept up in the enthusiasm.
 
Go back to 1924 and 10 australian shillings would get you ~ 4.5 trillion German marks.
Of course at the end of 1924 it was worth ~ 4.5 Reichmarks.

The Germans have a terrible history for kaos ;) looks like they've ignited another chaos that Europe doesn't need or want!
 
AUD back above 70c. Cashed out my 69c buy for a few more pennies. Who knows where the bottom will be, but as noted, it's a good thing for education and tourism providers. One poster above compared value of commodities exports vs value of education and tourism exports and noted that the former were currently much higher than the latter. That's all well and good, but what were the relevant figures before the commodities boom and the massive increase in the exchange rate around the same time? I'm thinking Australia's tourism towns are (finally) in for a few good years.
 
<snip>

Australia's tourism towns are (finally) in for a few good years.

Thinking along the same lines. Recently made an investment in Management Rights... the current returns are excellent - future looks good.
 
I'm thinking Australia's tourism towns are (finally) in for a few good years.
Broome?

Depending on what you are after Broome was 2-3 times more expensive than say South East Asia. Now it's only twice as expensive. Why would that make it attractive to anyone?
 
Broome?

Depending on what you are after Broome was 2-3 times more expensive than say South East Asia. Now it's only twice as expensive. Why would that make it attractive to anyone?

Not sure that's a fair comparison. SE Asia is one of the cheapest places in the world to holiday in....
 
I think everyone assumed it had to come down from 1.10 until the rest of the world doubled, tripled and quintupled their respective money supplies. At that point it didn't make sense. The 30-40% drop that has occurred is really more like 60-80% supply-adjusted, which seems extreme by any measure. So I think the current level assumes we're in a recession, interest rates will drop to 0 and our own version of QE is already priced in to some degree.

I'm bucking the trend of this thread and basically the entire media commentary on the subject but I'm not confident all of that will play out so the currency is likely to revert to some degree as those priced in assumptions unravel over the next few years. Interestingly the trigger for all that is expected to be a swift pop of the housing market but that's actually being propped up largely by the low dollar! It's reasonably priced in CNY.
 


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