What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[serfty]

Hovering at USD72¢ for most of the day ... there was a brief USD72½¢ peak around 5:30 this morning (Melbourne time)

 

[quokka77]

Currently 72.2c. Maybe I should buy those Avianca miles after all.

 

[quokka77]

AUD has shed almost a cent in the last 12 hours, to 70.7c. Back to business as usual.

 

[RAM]

The story with the FX can be deceiving. It is more often than the AUD but more the USD.

Against the USD it has fallen in the last week, against the Euro it has strengthened etc. So really the USD has shown some strength against all-comers and the AUD has been stronger than the EUR or GBP. In the big picture -this is noise not information. What is the over-riding trend?

Unless there is a new discovery (coal REALLY is climate friendly and China really does need to produce more than a billion tons of steel a year) then the AUD in the medium term is not a good bet IMHO.

As corporate finance dictates - if you can lock in a profitable business at the current exchange rate with an acceptable rate of return do it. Otherwise the company has launched into a new business venture - currency speculation.

It should be the same for most people and their travel spending. Is the current rate acceptable for the amount I have to exchange and for what I want to spend on while away?

Very few can time markets well - and even amongst those who get paid too much to do so - they cannot. The most successful FX trading operation in Australia made the bulk of its money from the buy/sell spread not principle trades.

For those that want to play the game - the baby-step approach to trading is worth looking into.

Buy 1/3rd of the amount now, buy another 1/3rd either quickly if the rate starts going against you or over a slightly longer time-frame, and the last 1/3rd treat as your 'blackjack' amount and prove that your different.

At least that way you are not significantly worse off either way and still have the 'thrill' of the chase just not such great risk.

The number of large listed companies that went under through effectively trying to time/pick the FX market is MUCH bigger than ever admitted to. Intermediaries DO NOT make much money from buy & hold strategies - so there is a conflict of interest inherent in their advice.

ON the personal side - you need to balance "You don't go broke taking profits" vs "Cut you losses and let your profits run"

The key is asking "What's changed?"

Think of a super-tanker that cuts its engines 40 kilometres out to sea and lets the momentum carry it into the port before the tugs take over. It takes an awful lot to get it going and to stop it.

 

[JohnK]

It should be the same for most people and their travel spending. Is the current rate acceptable for the amount I have to exchange and for what I want to spend on while away?

I know most people cannot do this but for me the answer is simple.

I will still go to Thailand 4 times/year. I will more than likely still spend the same money over there so in order to achieve that I will spend less money here.

Next logical step would be to try and generate some income in the local currency through property investment. I will sell up what I have here, pay capital gain tax and invest overseas.

Sure it is extreme but I am not going to let the silly games the Reserve Bank plays ruin my life. Personally I couldn't care less about exporters. Learn to slimline your operation to make more profits. Have less overheads. Or accept a smaller profit margin. Why should I suffer?

 

[Awesom Andy]

I know most people cannot do this but for me the answer is simple.

I will still go to Thailand 4 times/year. I will more than likely still spend the same money over there so in order to achieve that I will spend less money here.

Next logical step would be to try and generate some income in the local currency through property investment. I will sell up what I have here, pay capital gain tax and invest overseas.

Sure it is extreme but I am not going to let the silly games the Reserve Bank plays ruin my life. Personally I couldn't care less about exporters. Learn to slimline your operation to make more profits. Have less overheads. Or accept a smaller profit margin. Why should I suffer?

Similarly, I have 3 pots of money (not large pots by any means, but serves the purpose). I pick and choose the pot(s) I want to use depending on where I am and what the currencies are doing, and all pots are generating small returns so I'm naturally hedged to a certain degree.

 

[wandering_fred]

When your pension(s) are paid in US $, your opinion regarding the direction of the AU$ is "mixed".

Happy wandering

Fred

 

[dajop]

When your pension(s) are paid in US $, your opinion regarding the direction of the AU$ is "mixed".

Happy wandering

Fred

When your salary is not in AUD and your savings from a few years of work are not in AUD but still intend to return to and ultimately retire in Australia, there's certainly no mixed opinions or feelings about the direction of the AUD at the moment!

It's all about swings and roundabouts.

I may be a bit smug now, but I am fairly philosophical about these things , my first trip to UK was when the 1 AUD bought about 37p and to the U.S. when 1 AUD bought 50c (US). You make do with the level of accommodation and style of transport that suits the budget , the better the ER the better the accomodation. Otherwise you don't go.

 

[footy99]

Another 3c down this week.

I've got a fair chunk of my investments in international shares but still a net buyer so prefer it going the other way. 40c down from the highs a couple of years ago still seems too extreme to me so think I'll avoid international purchases for a while. Although the trend is proving very hard to buck.

 

[Foreigner]

Bearish sentiment on AUD.

Hit a low of 0.6934 today.

 

[Flashback]

AUD-GBP briefly poked it's head above 0.47 but now sitting just under. On a slight upward trend at the moment.

Interbank Spot: Bid: 0.4694 Ask: 0.4696​

 

[serfty]

No rate change today from Oz Reserve bank ... now at US71.2¢ ...

 

[quokka77]

Stronger than expected employment data in the last couple of days too. No wonder they call it the vampire currency.

Vampire currency: Australian dollar is refusing to drop

 

[Himeno]

Stronger than expected employment data in the last couple of days too. No wonder they call it the vampire currency.

Vampire currency: Australian dollar is refusing to drop

Its good that it's not dropping more. I'd like it to go back up. .75US please.

 

[Doctore1003]

Hi all, I'm fairly new to AFF and only just saw this thread. I'm a professional currency trader and the AUD/USD is one of the principal markets I trade.

I believe the odds favour the AUD bouncing against most major currencies over the coming few weeks, for a bunch of reasons (but I won't get technical). Obviously this would be a counter-trend move.

I'm heading to the States next year and so will be looking to buy USD if the AUD/USD can hit 75, then maybe more at 80. I'd be pleasantly surprised if we got to 80 tbh.

I should add that if AUD/USD goes back under 70 that would be very bad!

 

[sausagefingers]

Hi all, I'm fairly new to AFF and only just saw this thread. I'm a professional currency trader and the AUD/USD is one of the principal markets I trade.

I believe the odds favour the AUD bouncing against most major currencies over the coming few weeks, for a bunch of reasons (but I won't get technical). Obviously this would be a counter-trend move.

I'm heading to the States next year and so will be looking to buy USD if the AUD/USD can hit 75, then maybe more at 80. I'd be pleasantly surprised if we got to 80 tbh.

I should add that if AUD/USD goes back under 70 that would be very bad!

80cents sounds great, in fact I will be happy if it just stays where it is for the next 6 months.

 

[defurax]

Hi all, I'm fairly new to AFF and only just saw this thread. I'm a professional currency trader and the AUD/USD is one of the principal markets I trade.

I believe the odds favour the AUD bouncing against most major currencies over the coming few weeks, for a bunch of reasons (but I won't get technical). Obviously this would be a counter-trend move.

I'm heading to the States next year and so will be looking to buy USD if the AUD/USD can hit 75, then maybe more at 80. I'd be pleasantly surprised if we got to 80 tbh.

I should add that if AUD/USD goes back under 70 that would be very bad!

Now I feel better that I didn't buy $50K when the AUD/USD was at 1.10 if even a professional trader regrets not having stashed more USD during that time.

 

[moa999]

I didn't but any USD..

But I did buy some IVV (iShares unhedged S&P500 ETF) in Feb-2012 at 128.8...
Now trading at just under 280

Combination of the strengthening USD and stock market

 

[PLANT]

Brk\b, DTV..... Got in 2012.... Smiling still.....

 

[defurax]

Brk\b, DTV..... Got in 2012.... Smiling still.....

More affordable than Brk.a at AUD 279,239.98/share :shock: