What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[cove]

This morning our currency has a 0.75 as the first numbers and a high of 0.7526 according to the forex report. Our next order is at 0.7550.

 

[Foreigner]

The next 24+ hours will be interesting for Britain and the EU. Polls give the 'leave' camp a slight lead.

 

[cove]

If the UK withdraws they will have to deal with their trade deficit. That would mean a drop in their currency is what could happen in the short term with their interest rates going up as they wont be AAA rated as a borrower.
Of course the market may go the other way to prove I know bugger all.

 

[marki]

The next 24+ hours will be interesting for Britain and the EU. Polls give the 'leave' camp a slight lead.

interesting that leave is ahead that will be interesting ......for lots of reasons. But maybe not we shall see

 

[andye]

The UK polling industry was not on top form at last election-makes extrapolations difficult

 

[drron]

I think it will turn out like Scotland.Most thought Scexit would win but it turned out most Scots preferred the devil they knew.

 

[earlyriser]

This morning our currency has a 0.75 as the first numbers and a high of 0.7526 according to the forex report. Our next order is at 0.7550.

It was a great morning to pay some US invoices!

 

[Doctore1003]

The price action in the Aussie against almost all cross rates has been bullish and with the RBA on hold (and not as dovish recently as some expected) there is room for it to go a lot higher if risk appetite continues.

 

[whatmeworry]

Big bets for the remain case. Might be time to buy some pounds and euros.

 

[Doctore1003]

OK so I'm getting ready to (possibly) trade tonight's Brexit action in the forex markets. Call me crazy, and the volatility will probably be too high to justify getting involved, but it will be fun to watch nevertheless. It's a rare event!!

I thought I'd share a few thoughts going through my head for anyone who is interested:
- polls open at 7 am London time today (4 pm AEST) and if the rumours are true that hedge funds have commissioned their own private exit polling, we could see a "move" in the GBP begin much sooner than many people expect, eg. by around noon London time, which is 9pm AEST
- there is an embargo on public release of exit poll results until voting finishes at 10 pm BST (7 am tomorrow AEST). It doesn't seem like there are many public exit polls being conducted, however.
- news polls overnight were mixed BUT betting odds continue to strongly favour Bremain (~80%). However, I have read some commentary questioning whether betting odds are being manipulated by hedge funds. It doesn't take much cash to move betting odds, and you can make many millions in the currency markets if traders are reacting to changes in those odds
- voter turnout will be a big factor. Some but not all of the polls have factored in people's likelihood to vote. Possible storms are forecast across Britain, which could reduce turnout and favour the side with the more motivated voters (leavers?)
- the first official results will be coming in around midnight London time (9 am Friday AEST) BUT the first region to report is an export manufacturing hub and their result could be pretty skewed towards Bremain. Reports coming in 2am BST / 11 am AEST should be more reliable.
- GBP is hitting new highs as I type and with the rally over the past week, I wonder how much higher it could go on a remain vote in the short term. I like the Euro and Aussie better if risk sentiment continues next week on any Remain vote.
- Long yen looks good on Brexit.

 

[junbugging]

In 25 years I have not seen a single event given so much weight by the Japanese financial community... there is potential for a big overshoot no matter how things pan out.

I expect to see USD/JPY back above 110 by next week, though. Which could put AUD/JPY at around 83.

 

[Flashback]

Just heading off to vote now.

- voter turnout will be a big factor. Some but not all of the polls have factored in people's likelihood to vote. Possible storms are forecast across Britain, which could reduce turnout and favour the side with the more motivated voters (leavers?)

Has been pouring with rain since last night - was a nice lightning show too for most of my drive home from hockey. People are used to rain in the UK, I don't think it'll have much effect.

- GBP is hitting new highs as I type and with the rally over the past week, I wonder how much higher it could go on a remain vote in the short term. I like the Euro and Aussie better if risk sentiment continues next week on any Remain vote.

Not sure where you get those statistics from? It's currently 0.5088 ; which is still quite below the 0.5455 it reached mid April. I wouldn't call that 'New Highs' as it's still actually down over the period of the last week where it was up at 0.52xx.

 

[Doctore1003]

Not sure where you get those statistics from? It's currently 0.5088 ; which is still quite below the 0.5455 it reached mid April. I wouldn't call that 'New Highs' as it's still actually down over the period of the last week where it was up at 0.52xx.

GBP was hitting new highs in this rally that began a week ago against all the majors. GBP/AUD was above 1.97 (I'm guessing you're quoting the inverse of this).

 

[Flashback]

GBP was hitting new highs in this rally that began a week ago against all the majors. GBP/AUD was above 1.97 (I'm guessing you're quoting the inverse of this).

I am indeed - I wouldn't call it new highs, though!

 

[dajop]

In 25 years I have not seen a single event given so much weight by the Japanese financial community... there is potential for a big overshoot no matter how things pan out.

I expect to see USD/JPY back above 110 by next week, though. Which could put AUD/JPY at around 83.

Might not have to wait another 25 though ... I wonder if the weight given to this event will be "trumped" in 4 months time by another event on the other side of the Atlantic. Although by then we hope the heavyweights would have stepped in to short circuit some of the more damaging rhetoric.

 

[Doctore1003]

I am indeed - I wouldn't call it new highs, though!

I honestly think that was one of the least pertinent parts of my post.

 

[junbugging]

I wonder if the weight given to this event will be "trumped" in 4 months time by another event on the other side of the Atlantic.

Hard to imagine there being quite as much pre-vote uncertainty, though.

 

[marki]

Exit seems strong ......."Britain gets EU exit boost: Shock poll reveals scale of voter anger with Brussels
THE crusade for Britain to quit the EU has received a massive boost after a shock poll revealed the full scale of voters' frustration with Brussels." Express UK

 

[Flashback]

Exit seems strong ......."Britain gets EU exit boost: Shock poll reveals scale of voter anger with Brussels
THE crusade for Britain to quit the EU has received a massive boost after a shock poll revealed the full scale of voters' frustration with Brussels." Express UK

... a highly reputable news source *cough*

News outlets will say anything to get a few extra readers.

 

[marki]

... a highly reputable news source *cough*

News outlets will say anything to get a few extra readers.

I knew that .