What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[Pushka]

While I am a shareholder of the Big 4 banks I must tell you that you should look elsewhere for your currency. NAB at 0.69 on the internet when the trading is at 0.7330 is a wealth hazard.
$43 USD per $1,000 AUD is a serious shredding of your hard earned money if you worked and saved.

Yep. Would never use the big banks and often laugh at their cheek! I guess someone must use them though.

 

[RAM]

Aussie dollar bears have been proven wrong wrong wrong for months now. Next stop 80!

So it was YOU who doomed the Aussie to decline!!! Just like past AFR front pages....

Can you please now make an equally strong call that we're on the way to 65

A lot of my earnings are in USD so don't mind seeing it going down a bit, but the bank fee's and exchange rate they apply kill me.

If you have a USD bank account (hopefully) which are far easier to set up in person in the US than in Australia (took all of 6 minutes recently) then you have the ability to use various services that offer even better exchange rates but require a bank account to pay into, and is easiest if you transfer the funds from a bank account as well. US set-up even faster than for EU accounts.

Did a comparison earlier this year and was pleasantly shocked by how much extra had been in our pockets to spend as a result.

 

[Doctore1003]

So it was YOU who doomed the Aussie to decline!!! Just like past AFR front pages....

Can you please now make an equally strong call that we're on the way to 65

No way I've been correct on the AUD most of the year but I admit last week's action caught me (and many other traders) off guard. I got stopped out of my AUD/USD longs at break-even but I've been buying again this week. The global 'reflation' trade is quite good for the AUD imho. Commodities are up, China is looking good, the USA is about to stimulate its economy, interest rate expectations here are moving higher ... this is all AUD positive.

 

[RAM]

No way I've been correct on the AUD most of the year but I admit last week's action caught me (and many other traders) off guard. I got stopped out of my AUD/USD longs at break-even but I've been buying again this week. The global 'reflation' trade is quite good for the AUD imho. Commodities are up, China is looking good, the USA is about to stimulate its economy, interest rate expectations here are moving higher ... this is all AUD positive.

Looks like the little Aussie battler is going down then.... :evil:

 

[PLANT]

As long as trump keeps talking .....66 here we come!

 

[wandering_fred]

As long as trump keeps talking .....66 here we come!

So far the market doesn't seem to agree with you.

Happy wandering (like the AU$)

Fred

 

[cove]

All we need is more buyers than sellers for our currency to rise. That may not happen in the next 3 weeks as we will be in the US. My last buy was 0.7610 and so the currency went straight up into the 77s so that made me feel like a mug.

 

[Jacques Vert]

All we need is more buyers than sellers for our currency to rise. That may not happen in the next 3 weeks as we will be in the US. My last buy was 0.7610 and so the currency went straight up into the 77s so that made me feel like a mug.

It's not everybody who buys/sells enough $ to make the market move as a direct result.

 

[vetrade]

People write about the AUD when it's actually the strength, or otherwise, of the USD which is the relevant determinant of what the AUD/USD exchange rate will be. Looked at objectively it's likely that the USD will strengthen further between now and the end of the year, and so the AUD is likely to drift (yes, drift) towards the 70c mark. I don't see a rational argument for the AUD increasing significantly in value any time soon. The 77c on US Polling Day was the Aussie's little high but now it's back to reality............

 

[Jacques Vert]

The little Aussie battler is dong OK against the Euro and Yen which are far more important to my travel plans than the yankee $.

 

[cove]

The US dollar is important to us seeing we will be there on Thursday. I will use US credit cards to ease the pain and say hello to Kris Miles and AA Miles.

 

[Doctore1003]

The AUD has recently been at or near 52-week highs against all the majors - EUR, USD, GBP, CHF and (almost) JPY.

Probably not bearish.

 

[cove]

Seeing AUD has started to rally tonight at 0.7335 against the USD. This is helpful as we buy quite a lot in US currency.

 

[clazman]

Do you think we will every see 1:1 again?

 

[cove]

Most would say never say never. Many think the $AUD is over valued but some things have gone ok so the currency may improve for a week or two.

 

[Melburnian1]

Do you think we will every see 1:1 again?

The economists have a sorry record.

Isn't the economy a story of (eventual) "unexpected" events?

Who's not to say that Australia won't have another commodities boom, or a boom in some other sector that pushes up our dollar/

 

[vetrade]

Do you think we will every see 1:1 again?

Essentially what you are asking is "Is it possible for circumstances to exist in future under which the AUD will be at parity with the USD?"

Surely the answer to that is obvious.

Melburnian1 is correct - economists have an abysmal record - and so do nearly all the punters who think they have any real idea of how our currency will move. You don't have to go very far back in this thread to see ample proof of that.

There are multiple political and economic factors and multiple people and institutions manipulating currency, gold and oil prices etc. Many factors influence what our AUD will be - it is bobbing along in an ocean of uncertainty.

 

[JohnK]

Do you think we will every see 1:1 again?

That is a real possibility. Economists have no idea. Some guess better than others.

 

[whatmeworry]

Possibility of rates rising in the USA if the new administration ramps up infrastructure spending and the Australian economy tanks requiring rate cuts.

NAB analysts say 2017 may be the year the Reserve Bank cash rate falls below US interest rates, and the last time this occurred the Australian dollar slumped as low as 48 US cents.

Interest rates may fall below US rates in 2017 — will the AUD slump? - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

 

[Isochronous]

The Aussie Battler won't give up - it fought back to above 73c but the overall trend is down - it will probably rest around 70c over the medium term. That's just my opinion though and as others have said, economic and political shocks can always change things. For example the stories about a possible 2nd Scottish independence referendum sent AUD soaring against the GBP.