What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[Foreigner]

The Aussie is battling to stay above usd0.66

 

[I love to travel]

Currently. 6572 so I that barrier has well and truly being crashed. How much lower is the question?

 

[ozfflyer]

some switched on travel providers in U.S. have set their prices in AUD$ for Australians booking U.S. trips in Australia, for bookings made by end of March. Reading the fine print, it said based on exchange rate not falling below 60 cents, which sounds great.

They obviously don't want to lose their Australian customers. Must have a lot of regulars & worst case scenario for the U.S. providers is 8% discount off AUD$ now.

Better with 92% of something than nothing I guess.

 

[cove]

Bad night so far for the $AUD. Feeling fortunate that we have more than 6 months of funds in US Dollars so the drift doesn’t affect us personally until almost the end of the year.
i am a bit concerned about having prepaid our Olympic hotel accommodation if the corona virus causes a cancellation.

 

[ozfflyer]

Bad night so far for the $AUD. Feeling fortunate that we have more than 6 months of funds in US Dollars so the drift doesn’t affect us personally until almost the end of the year.
i am a bit concerned about having prepaid our Olympic hotel accommodation if the corona virus causes a cancellation.

the thing is, some travel things are so cheap now, that even if the AUD$ drops more it doesn't matter.

So if something was super cheap, super cheap + 5 or even 20% is not going to affect whether will do it or not.

If AUD$ did drop another 20%, we'd still travel, ut maybe stay in 4 star accommodation rather than 5 star, or not stay as long, or not eat out as much & drink "at home" before going out & buying drinks at bar prices.

If AUD$ did drop more than say 20%, we might have to re-evaluate, but I'd probably buy some foreign cash now, as some sort of insurance.

Heard on new tonight that decision on Olympics will be made in 12 weeks time, which is what someone has determined is the last date it can be canned or decision made.

With Corona a lot can happen in 24 hours. Tokyo is not for 5 months.


PREDICTION
Aud$ will keep dropping slowly, until there looks like an end to Corona, as long as no negative news out of China or USA.

 

[Cruiser Elite]

Good to see the currency traders guessers are on top of their game!

 

[Melburnian1]

Currently. 6572 so I that barrier has well and truly being crashed. How much lower is the question?

What is the lowest it's ever been? .50?

I can recall when it was roughly A$1.20 to US$1. That was in the mid 1980s. Friends older than me said it once purchased US1.40 per A$1.

 

[ozfflyer]

What is the lowest it's ever been? .50?

I can recall when it was roughly A$1.20 to US$1. That was in the mid 1980s. Friends older than me said it once purchased US1.40 per A$1.

but at same time many things in USA are cheaper in AUD$

 

[MEL_Traveller]

but at same time many things in USA are cheaper in AUD$

yeah... but less cheaper than they were a few days ago. Or last year.

 

[daft009]

Around 2010/2011 the Aussie was 1 to 1.1 USD. And around 0.86-0.88 euro.

What brought that on and any chance of that repeating?

I was buying everything from the US. Including 4x brand new car tyres shipped via FedEx, was cheaper than buying locally

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Around 2010/2011 the Aussie was 1 to 1.1 USD. And around 0.86-0.88 euro.

What brought that on and any chance of that repeating?

IIRC, China's expansion and thirst for our raw mining products. They couldn't get enough of them and the price - and our dollar - skyrocketed.

 

[Flashback]

IIRC, China's expansion and thirst for our raw mining products. They couldn't get enough of them and the price - and our dollar - skyrocketed.

... And then it all fell in a heap!!

 

[MEL_Traveller]

... And then it all fell in a heap!!

Yeah... something like politicians and big business deciding that the high dollar, making everything cheaper, 'wasn't good for us'

 

[cove]

Coming from the UK with British pounds would be pretty good right now. Unfortunately we are doing the reverse.
Last night the $AUD rallied above 0.66 against the US dollar as they cut their interest rates by half a percent.

 

[ozfflyer]

yeah... but less cheaper than they were a few days ago. Or last year.

Not nessarily. Many things are set in aud $ now for Australians , so prices haven't changed at all in last few months

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Not nessarily. Many things are set in aud $ now for Australians , so prices haven't changed at all in last few months

Maybe for select travel. But other items - department stores, groceries, etc - are not.

 

[RAM]

Around 2010/2011 the Aussie was 1 to 1.1 USD. And around 0.86-0.88 euro.

What brought that on and any chance of that repeating?

I was buying everything from the US. Including 4x brand new car tyres shipped via FedEx, was cheaper than buying locally

It was called the GFC....

A brick & tile 3 bedroom house with separate 4 car garage - all built in 2003 in the 'Golden Triangle' in Florida (never had a hurricane through it) on 2,200sqm over the road from a National Park, in top quartile school district and bottom quartile crime, with .9% unemployment rate (in 2010!!) was for sale at USD 17,000

Most US banks were bankrupt, Ford & GM went bankrupt (Chapter 11) then Obama effectvively nationalised them but it wasn't called that.

And with that backdrop the AUD managed to briefly reach $1.10

 

[NoGodsOneQueen]

Around 2010/2011 the Aussie was 1 to 1.1 USD. And around 0.86-0.88 euro.

What brought that on and any chance of that repeating?

I was buying everything from the US. Including 4x brand new car tyres shipped via FedEx, was cheaper than buying locally

That was such a golden age for online shopping....

 

[Franky]

Around 2010/2011 the Aussie was 1 to 1.1 USD. And around 0.86-0.88 euro.

What brought that on and any chance of that repeating?

I was buying everything from the US. Including 4x brand new car tyres shipped via FedEx, was cheaper than buying locally

2012 I think the rate was 1.08 USD. I was able to buy a full set of golf cubs for A$410, and the bonus with the exchange rate covered the $60 air freight delivered in a week.

 

[FL360]

at this moment, the 6-12 month market consensus view of the AUDUSD is 65-70.

once this virus thing is gone the AUDUSD rate will be more dependant on China trade / equity market conditions, and AU US forecasted future official rate differentials.