What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[Melburnian1]

Will this US debt 'weakness' (for the US dollar) be a temporary thing given recent events, or is it a 'structural' problem?

 

[jetlagger]

0.9352 on the Qantas Cash rate today.
Not much upward trend on the other basket of options.

 

[JohnK]

I'm delighted about that - At least for the interim.

And then crying again when it drops!

 

[amaroo]

I need to buy USD & CND.....thinking I might do it before the next interest rate announcement.

Rate cuts back on table as dollar surges

 

[JohnK]

A couple of days ago they were talking about increasing after 2 years of cuts. Grrrr....

 

[Foreigner]

RBA governor Glenn Stevens says Australian dollar will be 'materially lower' | News.com.au

Governor predicts dollar will be "materially" lower...how much lower?

 

[marki]

Everybody ( governments , Reserve banks ) wants a lower currency to boost the economy look at the lengths they go to in the States. Another episode is coming up in February.

 

[drron]

I have just added to the chances of the dollar rising in 2015.
Initially when booking cruises they made you pay in US dollars.As the Aussie surged our cruises got cheaper.
Then for the last 2 they would only accept Aussie dollars.I cheered as the Aussie fell.
But for 2015 they are letting me pick US or Aussie.I went for the Aussie so making it more likely the Aussie will rise and I will miss out on a price drop.

 

[JohnK]

My laptop crashed the other day and I went back to another laptop I had not used for a while. I display the gadgets on the desktop and laptop was last used 585 days ago.

THB = 32.124
USD = 1.042

I did not realise we reached parity that far back! :shock:

 

[Flashback]

Everybody ( governments , Reserve banks ) wants a lower currency to boost the economy look at the lengths they go to in the States. Another episode is coming up in February.

.. and the UK! Rates have been rock bottom here for a long time.

 

[whatmeworry]

$A falls as RBA stays open to intervention

In early morning trade, the Australian dollar fell as low as 91.99 US cents, its weakest level since September 9.
In a speech in Sydney on Thursday night RBA governor Glenn Stevens again said the high exchange rate is not helping the economy.
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He did not rule out selling Australian dollars to buy foreign currency in order to weaken the exchange rate.

 

[cove]

Last week I bought the US at .9510 and within an hour it had moved up to 0.9543. The Aussie dollar can make you feel like a real fool any day of the week.
My order for GB pounds did not get done at .5980 so we settled for .5950. Certainly the rates in the high sixties are now a distant memory.

 

[footy99]

It can go up or down with great gusto. Just a few years back when I was selling my house to buy in the US, it dropped from 1.10 to 93c in the space of a month or so, then jumped back to 1.07 within a few weeks again. Earlier this year it dropped from 1.05 to 89c in 3 months. These are all significant shifts in price where nothing is otherwise happening in the market. There are also the 50% jumps in either direction when something serious happens like we saw in 2008 but had recovered with interest by 2010.

Every country's money manager has the same message that their currency is too high, so the RBA aren't springing any surprises there. It doesn't actually mean anything. Realistically it is just as likely to jump 15 points again back to 1.06 as it is to drop a similar amount into the 70s. And the little daily/weekly moves between 90 and 95 really don't mean anything - just treading water waiting for a real move, the direction of which has the same predictability as a coin toss.

 

[Flashback]

There's chatter that the UK will finally raise interest rates in 2014/2015 after a few years of staying still.

 

[Melburnian1]

With the RBA Governor on a mission to lower the dollar and Flashback's comment about UK interest rates being likely to rise, it would be a brave man who went 'long' (if I recall teh market's term) on the Aussie.

It would be preferable if the RBA Governor stuck to issuing brief media releases after the monthly board meetings.

 

[Awesom Andy]

With the RBA Governor on a mission to lower the dollar and Flashback's comment about UK interest rates being likely to rise, it would be a brave man who went 'long' (if I recall teh market's term) on the Aussie.

It would be preferable if the RBA Governor stuck to issuing brief media releases after the monthly board meetings.

They probably don't actually need to do it. Spread the news that they would sell AUD, and everyone would want to get rid of it before it crashes. RBA can just sit back with pop corn as everyone else rushes to sell.

 

[Melburnian1]

Doesn't an extremely affluent, (strangely given his assets) Democrat sympathiser of Grecian extraction from the USA tend to win these arguments?

 

[Foreigner]

Overnight low of .9142 and likely to be moving south.

 

[cove]

Well it has recovered a few ticks to be 0.9165 and if the Reserve Bank leave interest rates untouched in early December it could go back up a bit.
A real estate boom in Sydney or a do nothing decision in the next 2 weeks seems to be the RBA dilemma.

 

[mono88]

They probably don't actually need to do it. Spread the news that they would sell AUD, and everyone would want to get rid of it before it crashes. RBA can just sit back with pop corn as everyone else rushes to sell.

"Jawboning" will only work for short periods.
The FX market, being a market, reacts in myriad and often unusual ways to all sorts of influences.