What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

I know it's not strictly on topic but Gold has dropped to just above $US1100 today.
Lowest price since early 2010 and (I'm pretty sure) below China's cost of production, which has tended to put a floor of around $US1144 under the price up until now.
Something must be about to happen.....................
 
vetrade said:
I know it's not strictly on topic but Gold has dropped to just above $US1100 today.
Lowest price since early 2010 and (I'm pretty sure) below China's cost of production, which has tended to put a floor of around $US1144 under the price up until now.
Something must be about to happen.....................
Click to expand...

Albeit the Australian gold miners have been protected by the fall in the AUD, iron ore and coal have fallen a lot more than gold
 
vetrade said:
I know it's not strictly on topic but Gold has dropped to just above $US1100 today.
Lowest price since early 2010 and (I'm pretty sure) below China's cost of production, which has tended to put a floor of around $US1144 under the price up until now.
Something must be about to happen.....................
Click to expand...

The lower Gold price is likely to push up the USD. If there's a lift in US interest rate that is likely to lead to an even stronger dollar.
 
Demon_fan said:
Anyone have any thoughts on how the AUD will track against the GBP. It just slowly continues to drop.
Click to expand...

Stable'ish....... I've been tracking for some time now as pondering moving some money from AUD to GBP. Currently hovering around .475 ; ideally I'd like it back up around .49 but it's hovered around .47 for 2 weeks or so now so I wouldn't hold my breath. Everything seems to be taking a downward trend (for Aus, that is!).
 
JohnM said:
Why? Canadian resources boom is unwinding like ours but US economy is growing more strongly. All quite predictable.
Click to expand...
Why don't we also print more money? Then our economy can grow too.

And Europe is silly. To help out Greece they should simply print more money to pay the debt and then everyone is happy.

It's very difficult understand when our resources are doing well my money is worth 32 baht but when we are not doing well my money is only worth 25 baht. Makes no sense.
 
MEL_Traveller said:
The USD (and currencies pegged or indirectly pegged to it) is/are rising, rather than other currencies falling at the moment.

Same is holding true for the Baht... the AUD is holding against it.
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May 2014 got ~30 baht to AUD.
December 2014 ~28.
Last week ~ 24.5.
I don't consider that is holding too well especially as the Thai economy is quite sick.
 
drron said:
May 2014 got ~30 baht to AUD.
December 2014 ~28.
Last week ~ 24.5.
I don't consider that is holding too well especially as the Thai economy is quite sick.
Click to expand...

I was talking about this latest round (last few days) where the AUD has fallen but has held steady against many other currencies not pegged to the USD.
 
drron said:
Some blame that story for the fall in the gold price.A lot of commentators had predicted the Chinese gold holdings would be a lot higher than this announcement.
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China's gold holdings may well be a lot higher than what they are admitting to. News out of China is what they want it to be and often has little relationship to the reality / truth. Been public knowledge for years that China has been under pressure from the US because it has held the value of the yuan artificially high. They have been stockpiling gold to support the yuan for a long time. Of course the US wants the yuan valued lower because they owe China squillions.

Another interesting thing about gold is that there is several times the "paper" for gold than there is actual physical gold to back it up. Somebody has been making huge $$ from selling "paper" for gold that physically does not exist. Several countries smelled a rat and asked to see their gold that was supposedly stockpiled in the US. Banks couldn't produce it and it's now the subject of international court action. I think the main culprit was the Bank of America.
 
Drron the THB like many Asian countries is effectively pegged to the USD (either directly like China and Hong Kong out indirectly)
 
JohnK said:
Why don't we also print more money? Then our economy can grow too.
And Europe is silly. To help out Greece they should simply print more money to pay the debt and then everyone is happy.
It's very difficult understand when our resources are doing well my money is worth 32 baht but when we are not doing well my money is only worth 25 baht. Makes no sense.
Click to expand...

What's the interest rate on THB accounts at the moment? If you think the AUD is headed more seriously down, such an account might be useful.
Printing money is not necessarily the answer. Read about the monetary history of Germany in the five or six years after the first World War.
The issue is that people who own REAL assets (or have borrowed pre-inflation money) are the ones who come out ahead in inflationary periods (whatever the cause of the inflation - there are reasons in addition to the irresponsible printing of money). Is the USD the proper choice for a reserve currency for the world? Is the AUD? Maybe in another two thousand or so posts we will have a definitive forecast. Though I doubt it.

But I'm wandering (again/still)

Fred
 
wandering_fred said:
What's the interest rate on THB accounts at the moment? If you think the AUD is headed more seriously down, such an account might be useful.
Printing money is not necessarily the answer. Read about the monetary history of Germany in the five or six years after the first World War.
Click to expand...
Interest rates in Thailand are the same as here if not less.

It is quite clear that our monetary policies are not working. Time for interest rates to increase to >10% again. It shouldn't always be about getting people to spend. Time for people to save for tomorrow.
 

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