When do you think we can travel again?

[jb747]

My original guess was international at the end of 2021. I see nothing to make me think it will be earlier, but lots that makes me think later. There will be dramatically fewer seats available, for a period of years. The fact that EK might be claiming that it‘s going to restart services to Oz, doesn’t mean the government will allow them to, nor does it address the issue of quarantine.

Domestically, I think it will be allowed sometime in the next few months. But, I doubt that there will be much demand. It may ramp up slowly, but my take is that most people who were planning an international trip, won’t suddenly want to go to Brisbane. International visitors won’t be around to make up the numbers. At the end of the year, if there’s more than 60% of previous domestic demand, I’ll be surprised.

I have a trip to the USA (with SQ) booked for October. I have no doubt that it will ultimately be cancelled by the airline. And even it if isn’t I’d rather walk away, than go there any time soon.

 

[Battymum]

We live in Sydney and our QR flight was leaving from Perth (gotta widen your target when booking award flights)

We have a separate flight booked SYD-PER, so our plan B is a couple of weeks in WA.
We have never been to that side of the country.

Hopefully we will at least be able travel domestically, although if we have to have two weeks in quarantine after that, it will be a deal breaker.

 

[Seat0B]

I'm expecting/hoping that my October Finnair paid business class flight Canberra to Paris via Singapore and Helsinki and return (for a special birthday event that now won't happen) gets cancelled and refunded. I have a ski trip to Japan returning via Shanghai booked for February 2021, and I am feeling increasingly gloomy about the prospects. That's an award booking, so easy to just ride it out and cancel as things become clearer. So I'm starting to think that @jb747 might be right with his guess of late 2021 for international travel.

 

[Dr Ralph]

At this stage I’d be very surprised if there is international travel this year.

Prepare to be surprised!

 

[jakeseven7]

Prepare to be surprised!

I really hope you are right! (and not just a few dinky international flights floating around the place!)

 

[jase05]

Prepare to be surprised!

Hope you are correct.
Not just one or two destinations either would be nice. I would imagine the 2 week quarantine on return to Australia is here for a long time though

 

[Robert K]

Hope you are correct.
Not just one or two destinations either would be nice. I would imagine the 2 week quarantine on return to Australia is here for a long time though

I wonder whether later on when testing is more readily available, instead of quarantining AFTER the trip, we get tested and quarantine at airport BEFORE the flight.

Less down time.

 

[Dalescott]

I'm interested in the QR credit and the 12 months. What will happen if say the Australian Government give the OK to fly, other countries say no. Or it is reversed in that the Aust Gov say you have to go into 2 weeks isolation. But my biggest concern is that the skies will not open till after the credit runs out. Two J fares flushed down the dunny.

 

[dajop]

I think there will be drastically reduced capacity, but there will be international travel. But I'm sensing most think about international travel as "leisure travel" for holidays, but there is business traffic and VFR traffic as well.

Business traffic, it's difficult to see how that will or could progress, if 14 day quarantines remain in place at both ends.

I think then the main source of traffic is for non time-sensitive VFR (visiting friends and relatives) travel. There are a lot of people working or studying in different countries to their extended family, which have a different motivation to travel. For this group a week on a coast somewhere, is no substitute for a trip to visit loved ones, whereas it could be for overseas holiday.

In general, what happens to the quarantine conditions will drive the short-medium term traffic. Some people are not that time sensitive so may be able to cope with 14 days of isolation at either end of travel. But it will depend on cost. 14 days x 2 "self isolation" ... probably manageable. 14 days isolation at government expense x 2 ... manageable (less ideal) but unlikely this will continue... 14 days x2 @ own expense in government facility? Not really going to be attractive.

 

[Tiki]

I’m hoping that 14 day quarantine is only at home, possibly tracked by an app or something. I think a few countries are doing that now to self-quarantined people. And the destination country has to let us in maybe with a quickie test. If they want tourist $ back, some arrangements need to be done. No one will visit a country where they lock you up for 14 days. I hope things transition to herd immunity rather than deprivation of free movement. And people who are more cautious can still stay home and have everything delivered, control who they come in contact with.

 

[Battymum]

Well I have just had notice that my tour has been cancelled.

Looks like we’re not going.

 

[pawanranta]

I've got a trip booked For Christmas 2020 and feeling doubtful that will go ahead.

Things should get okay until December.

 

[Seat0B]

I think there will be drastically reduced capacity, but there will be international travel. But I'm sensing most think about international travel as "leisure travel" for holidays, but there is business traffic and VFR traffic as well.

Business traffic, it's difficult to see how that will or could progress, if 14 day quarantines remain in place at both ends.

I think then the main source of traffic is for non time-sensitive VFR (visiting friends and relatives) travel. There are a lot of people working or studying in different countries to their extended family, which have a different motivation to travel. For this group a week on a coast somewhere, is no substitute for a trip to visit loved ones, whereas it could be for overseas holiday.

In general, what happens to the quarantine conditions will drive the short-medium term traffic. Some people are not that time sensitive so may be able to cope with 14 days of isolation at either end of travel. But it will depend on cost. 14 days x 2 "self isolation" ... probably manageable. 14 days isolation at government expense x 2 ... manageable (less ideal) but unlikely this will continue... 14 days x2 @ own expense in government facility? Not really going to be attractive.

Yes we are squarely in the VFR category with my son who lives in Dubai, who I desperately want to see. We are semi-retired and so could probably manage the time impost of quarantine - just. But I would really only want to do it as self isolation at my place for cost reasons and also I have a nice big house with a garden, so it would not be too bad. But if I also have to quarantine in Dubai, which would seem highly liekly, that would become a deal breaker due to expense as well as taking a full month to quarantine on arrival in Dubai and again on return to Aus. My son won't be able to visit us here in Australia for the foreseable future as the quarantine time would eat an entire year's leave and under current arrangements, his girlfriend who is British, can't gain entry here anyway. It's a tough time to be a family separated internationally at the moment.

 

[knagelli]

instead of quarantining AFTER the trip, we get tested and quarantine at airport BEFORE the flight.

That sounds like a wonderful idea however if they start testing out at the airport before the journey started , how will they know if they have contacted with someone having the virus when they return ?

 

[drron]

As long as the quarantine on returning was self isolation at home we would have no problems with that and would still travel OS.

 

[Robert K]

That sounds like a wonderful idea however if they start testing out at the airport before the journey started , how will they know if they have contacted with someone having the virus when they return ?

You'd do it on the return leg too. So basically you don't get on a plane unless you are tested negative.

 

[knagelli]

You'd do it on the return leg too. So basically you don't get on a plane unless you are tested negative.

That's a valid point

 

[Robert K]

and it looks like emirates is already doing that!

Emirates Is Giving a Rapid Coronavirus Test to Passengers Before Boarding

The airline is using blood tests to screen passengers before they board their flight.

www.cntraveler.com

 

[mrsterryn]

For me I have a very good friend in USA I tend to see a few times a year. It will be very hard to not catch up with her again this year
I think USA might be an issue for travelling to

 

[Archphoto]

For me I have a very good friend in USA I tend to see a few times a year. It will be very hard to not catch up with her again this year
I think USA might be an issue for travelling to

I agee - was planning to visit a couple of friends in the US around November this year, as part of a RTW trip. However, the current situation (and handling of it) has me rather reluctant to even think of setting foot there anytime soon. So I might be looking at 2021 instead - not booked, so no problem with delaying the trip for another 18 months, just rather disappointing, as it was going to be a graduation present to myself.