Which Airlines may be next to Fold?

[ozfflyer]

thomas cook gone

jet airways india gone

cobalt gone

numerous otheer EU operators gone

JQ NZ domestic goning

Condor next ?

Norwegian ?

 

[dajop]

Montenegro airlines now halted.

Montenegro Airlines ceases operations after government refuses bailout

Montenegro Airlines ceased its operations on Saturday after the small country's new government refused to continue financing the indebted national carrier.

www.traveller.com.au

Small Balkan country of about 630K and on the back of a recent election win for a conservative party.

Have flown them once about 10 years ago.

Little bit of trivia - not the first airline to bear its IATA code -YM - to go under. In fact one airline that had that code went under twice.

 

[AIRwin]

Could JAL and ANA merge?

Japan's ANA on 'wartime' footing to implement COVID reforms

Management decisiveness and fresh thinking by young employees ease crisis impact

asia.nikkei.com

 

[kelvedon]

Japan's ANA on 'wartime' footing to implement COVID reforms

Management decisiveness and fresh thinking by young employees ease crisis impact

asia.nikkei.com

That won’t help the proposed Qantas JAL alliance. How will the ACCC view
this ?

 

[AIRwin]

Malaysia fate will soon be known

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.

in.reuters.com

Malaysia Airlines' debt restructuring nears completion - parent company

The parent company of Malaysia Airlines said on Thursday it was nearing the end of a debt restructuring process which it hopes will be completed by the end of the first quarter of this year.

www.reuters.com

 

[AIRwin]

AirAsiaX with massive debt restructuring proposal

AirAsia Long-Haul Arm Pitches Dramatic Overhaul to Survive

AirAsia Group Bhd.’s long-haul arm proposed a sweeping restructuring plan that would wipe out almost 63.5 billion ringgit ($15.3 billion) in debt and save the Malaysian carrier from being dragged under by aviation’s worst-ever crisis.

www.bloomberg.com

Looks like a massive haircut

AirAsia X shows court creditors’ support for revamp plan

KUALA LUMPUR: Most of AirAsia X Bhd’s (AAX) lessors support a restructuring plan, and the Malaysian airline has received interest from potential investors for fundraising after reorganisation, court documents filed this month show.

www.thestar.com.my

 

[moa999]

More on AAX

AirAsia X restructuring places creditors in a bind

AirAsia X's debt restructuring negotiations highlight the dilemma creditors face when deciding whether to stand by a struggling airline during the Covid-19 pandemic.

www.flightglobal.com

 

[ethernet]

Fold is an emotional word. I like 80/20 rule, when you run at 20% capacity or your business is chapter 11'ed. But in the US Chapter 11 is situation normal.

SWOT Analysis required.
Plus: Interest rates at an all time low.
Plus: Those making no profits have higher share valuations.
Neg: Fancy leaseback finance schemes a disaster for those remaining in business.
Neg: Premium classes make plane routes profitable. Teleconferences, quarantine lockup risks, and perks downgrades means less big payers. Dr's exempt.
Neg: Wage rise stagnation in the cattle classes
Neg: Travel Insurance - I believe is now worthless for those who plan ahead.
Plus: Huge pent up demand/backlog for stranded pax.
Neg: International paperwork and tests = less impulse buying
Plus: I own no airline shares.
Opportunity: Govts will back dead horses, when the rich scream overgeared luxury segments die when the liquidations begin.
Threat: Banks want their loans paid and serviced.
Opportunity: Airlines introduce demand scheduling
Opportunity: Best to let the airline fold, govt and taxpayers absorb the socialised loss, then phoenix when things pick up.
Opportunity: Helicopter money, free money, irresponsible credit
Threat: If .au does not recognize less well known foreign covid shots, QF's share of pax will be in the toilet. Bye bye foreign education sector.
Threat: Foreign debt insurance. So far the fools are going along with MMT.
Opportunity: Travel Bubble. No, I am not convinced. First accidental leak, and they will can it within 24 hours, creating distrust.
Threat: Unlike the EU, Australia does not have airline ticketing laws that prevent pax from being stranded/left in the lurch. Another reason not to fly.
Threat: Overseas airlines, especially ones that have phoenixed.
Threat: Knee-jerk announcements from CMO's , irrational risk plans, secret agendas, groupthink

I think more airlines will go, new ones will spring up on rip-off routes, and overall air travel remain in a slump until the three C's. Certainty, Credit, Consistency come back.

 

[oz_mark]

I guess the airlines will spin out, but HNA Group has commenced bankruptcy proceedings

HNA Group enters bankruptcy restructuring as it buckles under debt

HNA Group’s acquisition spree came to an end in 2017 when China’s financial regulators, fearful of risks to the banking industry, cracked down on the debt-fed binge.

www.scmp.com

(Hainan Airlines, Hong Kong Airlines, Beijing Capital, and others.)

 

[Major]

Silk Air has finally been absorbed by SIA.

https://www.businesstraveller.com/business-travel/2021/01/28/silkair-begins-integration-into-singapore-airlines/

 

[oz_mark]

Air Namibia

https://twitter.com/x/status/1359606254335905793

 

[Jacques Vert]

Air Namibia

https://twitter.com/x/status/1359606254335905793

There go my 592 Reward$ miles :-(

 

[jakeseven7]

I guess the airlines will spin out, but HNA Group has commenced bankruptcy proceedings

HNA Group enters bankruptcy restructuring as it buckles under debt

HNA Group’s acquisition spree came to an end in 2017 when China’s financial regulators, fearful of risks to the banking industry, cracked down on the debt-fed binge.

www.scmp.com

(Hainan Airlines, Hong Kong Airlines, Beijing Capital, and others.)

Remember when they were the saviour of the old VA1 airline?! Wow how things change.

 

[oz_mark]

Remember when they were the saviour of the old VA1 airline?! Wow how things change.

If nothing else, I appreciated their investment in my travelling comfort!

(I still don't know how JB convinced them it was a good idea)

 

[jakeseven7]

If nothing else, I appreciated their investment in my travelling comfort!

(I still don't know how JB convinced them it was a good idea)

JB sold a lot of people a lemon with VA1 he certainly had a silver tongue that’s for sure!

 

[drron]

Not an air line but no more Lear jets.

Bombardier to lay off 1,600, halt Learjet production

The layoffs include 800 people in Canada, mostly in Quebec, and 250 in Wichita where Learjet is made, Martel later told reporters. Bombardier, which had previously planned to break even on free cash flow in 2020, now expects to turn cash flow-positive between 2021 and 2023. Bombardier has shed...

sg.finance.yahoo.com

 

[Mattg]

CSA Czech Airlines

The Prague City Court has declared Czech Airlines bankrupt

The company’s debts stand at CZK 1.8 billion (EUR 68 million), and the future will be clearer in June after the creditors meeting. The Prague City Court

www.aviation24.be

 

[AIRwin]

CSA Czech Airlines

OK is not OK

 

[AisleSeat]

Mexico's Interjet

Although, the article suggests that they'll file bankruptcy and restructure with the intention to begin operating again in July.

Interjet seeking creditor agreements before bankruptcy to restart operating in July - Riviera Maya News

Cancun, Playa del Carmen, Quintana Roo Mexico English news today. Your reliable online newspaper.

www.riviera-maya-news.com

 

[AIRwin]

Maybe Condor as LOT has pulled out of takeover.

LOT Polish Airlines Cancels Condor Takeover

LOT Polish Airlines is cancelling plans to takeover German leisure airline Condor. What does this mean for the future of the airline?

onemileatatime.com

Condor to be taken over by financial investor Attestor Capital:

German Airline Condor Rescued as Investor Attestor Swoops In

Financial investor Attestor Ltd has acquired a majority stake in German airline Condor, rescuing a company that’s survived on government support after the coronavirus pandemic punctured the boom in air travel.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[AIRwin]

Recent article on Southeast Asian airlines particularly GA, MH and TG:

Murky path towards post-pandemic recovery for some Southeast Asian airlines

From headcount cuts to restructuring and rebranding, regional carriers are trying all they can to stay viable. But when will things return to normal?

www.channelnewsasia.com