Who is going to the USA, who has changed their travel and what will you do differently?

[SYD]

I travelled May 2024 and not exempt

Just means you have to apply for a visa.

A friend went to North Korea several years back. A group of us were going to the US for a wedding and pointed out that they should start the process early…

Don’t bother trying to apply for an ESTA. It’ll take your money, only to decline the application.

 

[p--and--t]

Just means you have to apply for a visa.

A friend went to North Korea several years back. A group of us were going to the US for a wedding and pointed out that they should start the process early…

Don’t bother trying to apply for an ESTA. It’ll take your money, only to decline the application.

According to US website. We have to book in 6-8months in advance, pay for return trips for both of us to MEL or SYD in order to have an interview to "consider" whether we worthy to get a visa. They can take a running jump.

 

[SYD]

According to US website. We have to book in 6-8months in advance, pay for return trips for both of us to MEL or SYD in order to have an interview to "consider" whether we worthy to get a visa. They can take a running jump.

The interview is a formality but obviously a PITA if you’re not based in SYD or MEL….

 

[DC3]

According to US website. We have to book in 6-8months in advance, pay for return trips for both of us to MEL or SYD in order to have an interview to "consider" whether we worthy to get a visa. They can take a running jump.

Can’t squeeze in a mini-break?

 

[GDSman]

I've flown regularly to the US both for work and to visit my brother in Vermont. I've told him not to expect any visitors for a few years...
I have a conference in Canada later this year and am looking at the more expensive YVR entry than the faster/cheaper DFW or even LAX, just to avoid the potential hassle.

 

[p--and--t]

Can’t squeeze in a mini-break?

My last sentence stands.

 

[scaredeycat]

Given that Americans are basically locked in to buying a huge proportion of their consumer goods from Asia, without any real alternative sources, they are staring at a huge surge of inflation. For example a new iPhone may well cost over $2000. There is going to be a similar effect on imported garments. Even widgets bought at Walmart made in Asian factories will explode in price. Belts are going to have to tighten and discretionary spending in areas such as travel will fall. Tourism destinations within the US will be hit as travellers from the rest of the world stay away in droves. The airlines are going to struggle to fill seats. Will this effect just hit the American economy or is it going to spread to the rest of the world? I suspect that it will make the OPEC oil crisis of the 1970s look like a picnic in comparison, but my understanding of economics is just that of a lay person. YMMV...

 

[RSD]

Given that Americans are basically locked in to buying a huge proportion of their consumer goods from Asia, without any real alternative sources, they are staring at a huge surge of inflation. For example a new iPhone may well cost over $2000. There is going to be a similar effect on imported garments. Even widgets bought at Walmart made in Asian factories will explode in price. Belts are going to have to tighten and discretionary spending in areas such as travel will fall. Tourism destinations within the US will be hit as travellers from the rest of the world stay away in droves. The airlines are going to struggle to fill seats. Will this effect just hit the American economy or is it going to spread to the rest of the world? I suspect that it will make the OPEC oil crisis of the 1970s look like a picnic in comparison, but my understanding of economics is just that of a lay person. YMMV...

If things continue the way they are headed with these tariffs then it sure isn't going to be pretty in the U.S. - they can't just build new factories for everything in a week. Even their loo paper has probably just doubled in price.

 

[dajop]

Given that Americans are basically locked in to buying a huge proportion of their consumer goods from Asia, without any real alternative sources, they are staring at a huge surge of inflation. For example a new iPhone may well cost over $2000. Th

Will be interesting to see what happens. Pricing can be complicated. and particularly where IP royalties are involved. A 100% tariff on (imported) iphones doesn't necessarily mean that what the consumer pays for the will double, it depends on what Apple is paying the supplier, where the IP royalties are going and so on.

Even for simple manufactured goods without an IP component, importing a product at $5 a unit and selling for $80 doesn't mean the items will be selling for $160. They could sell it for $85 instead and make the same amount of profit per unit. (over simplifying of course).

Great time to be either a tax lawyer or trade compliance expert!

 

[equus]

The other thing that comes into play here, with differential rates for different origins is all sorts of artificial avoidance. If there is a 100% tariff applied from Country A, but only 10% from Country B, and no tariffs between Country A and Country B, then the goods origin can be switched to County B to lower the tariff rate. Some form of transformation may be required (add a sticker to the packaging), but arbitraging rates, artificial structures and all the technicalities make it a great playing field for those tax lawyers and trade experts - all making money out of artificial work that doesn't actually add any real value to the goods.

 

[p--and--t]

Will be interesting to see what happens. Pricing can be complicated. and particularly where IP royalties are involved. A 100% tariff on (imported) iphones doesn't necessarily mean that what the consumer pays for the will double, it depends on what Apple is paying the supplier, where the IP royalties are going and so on.

Even for simple manufactured goods without an IP component, importing a product at $5 a unit and selling for $80 doesn't mean the items will be selling for $160. They could sell it for $85 instead and make the same amount of profit per unit. (over simplifying of course).

Great time to be either a tax lawyer or trade compliance expert!

I don't quite understand the royalties side of it at all, but a friend allegedly saw an article that says Musk will make double the profit on his CN imported cars into US than on his locally made cars with the tariffs. Something about royalties, CN gov subsidies and complex contract arrangements.

 

[scaredeycat]

Warning, this video is from that Marxist network CNN, so some may take with a very large pinch of salt (or MSG)

 

[dajop]

Warning, this video is from that Marxist network CNN, so some may take with a very large pinch of salt (or MSG)

What I don't understand is on the graphic in the video it costs consumers $799 to buy an iphone and under a 43% tariff the iphone will cost the consumer $1150. That assumes the consumer is importing the iphone themselves.! And leaves no margin for retailer or Apple in the US from the retail sale (I guess the latter is possible if they are charging the China entity producing the iphone significant IP royalties and picking up their margin that way).

Anyway I know going OT, but the whole supply chain thing is complicated - and I guess it's media's job to simplify things, but they can be a bit dramatic too.

 

[Tiki]

Americans can bring in $800 duty free from overseas for personal use. There may be an opportunity for iphone and such stores springing up along the Canadian and Mexican borders.

 

[Melburnian1]

Americans can bring in $800 duty free from overseas for personal use. There may be an opportunity for iphone and such stores springing up along the Canadian and Mexican borders.

This discussion seems to have forgotten about the title of the thread.

 

[DC3]

My last sentence stands.

Never say never, as the saying goes.

 

[jrfsp]

Looks like a tit for tat trade war is firmly on the cards China just upping their tarrif- expect the air fares to start following the stock markets

 

[RSD]

China has just responded about an hour ago by slapping another 50% on U.S. imports - taking that to 84%. I'm starting to wonder if China is deliberately trying to provoke the U.S. to keep raising tariffs on Chinese imports knowing full well that the U.S. doesn't really have ready alternatives to Chinese goods at the moment? Therefore the more the U.S. retaliates the more inflation in the U.S. will increase and break their economy - the sudden massive price rise in everyday items that are high volume/low margin goods will be especially noticeable. It would be interesting to know what China's end game is - are they trying to break America? Trying to cause massive civil disturbance amongst unhappy consumers?

 

[Forg]

China has just responded about an hour ago by slapping another 50% on U.S. imports - taking that to 84%. I'm starting to wonder if China is deliberately trying to provoke the U.S. to keep raising tariffs on Chinese imports knowing full well that the U.S. doesn't really have ready alternatives to Chinese goods at the moment? Therefore the more the U.S. retaliates the more inflation in the U.S. will increase and break their economy - the sudden massive price rise in everyday items that are high volume/low margin goods will be especially noticeable. It would be interesting to know what China's end game is - are they trying to break America? Trying to cause massive civil disturbance amongst unhappy consumers?

China was never going to cop the slap in the face, just smile & take it. They know the US has more to lose, and the appearance of being bested is more important to them than it is to the US.

But you’re right about them wanting all the economic turmoil in the US as a general thing, it’s why they (and Russia) spent so much time & effort on pro-Trump influencers etc during each election Trump contested.

The airfare thing … so much chance it could go either way, I reckon!

 

[RooFlyer]

I visited Iran in 2017 and afterwards had to apply for a B1/B2 visa to visit the USA and this was confirmed in quite categorical terms when I quizzed the US consulate in Melbourne first by phone (when they still answered the phone ) and later in the in-person interview. The Visa lasts five years.

The process then was a bit of a PITA but reasonably straightforward but when I renewed it recently it was a total calamity. It’s all online and the online process absolutely is broken.

I agree US immigration is reasonably easy-going and I’ve even had a few jokes with them going through, now counting well over 50 entries by land and air.

The Canadians were oten snarky with me for repeated entries over short periods when I was going over there on business - usually sent off for secondary interviews at the Border- they kept trying to find that I was working over there which I was but as I kept pointing out to them, not in the sense of their immigration regulations.