Will Qantas Ever Fly To China Again?

[tomlee1986]

Not possible. Considering all the airlines in China are government owned or majority owned.
The 3 big ones 100% and the smaller airlines owned often by one of the big 3.
Then during COVID, they made sure HK suffered on purpose to reduce their relevance and get more control, then took a share in CX too. Not majority owned yet, but they likely will eventually find a way to achieve this.
So as competition goes. I don't think China would allow a 3rd party non state owned entity to set up shop there.

CX brought the shares back earlier this year

Cathay completes buyback of the warrants from the Hong Kong SAR Government

Payment of nearly HK$4 billion to the Government for the warrants buyback and in preference share dividends

news.cathaypacific.com

BUT REAL HKers - those who support democracy would NEVER trust this airline again!! Sacking staff for anti government views in 2019 on their OWN social media in their OWN time, NOT in uniform representing the company!! I would be glad when CX goes Bankrupt!

Cathay denounced for firing Hong Kong staff after pressure from China | Hong Kong | The Guardian

City also sees separate rally against alleged sexual violence by police against participants in protest movement

amp.theguardian.com

 

[mrflyby]

CX brought the shares back earlier this year

Interesting. Hadn't read that. Was disappointed with what I was expecting to become of CX when they bought that. So this is good to see they got out of that.

 

[RooFlyer]

Not possible. Considering all the airlines in China are government owned or majority owned.
The 3 big ones 100% and the smaller airlines owned often by one of the big 3.
Then during COVID, they made sure HK suffered on purpose to reduce their relevance and get more control, then took a share in CX too. Not majority owned yet, but they likely will eventually find a way to achieve this.
So as competition goes. I don't think China would allow a 3rd party non state owned entity to set up shop there.

What I was meaning was an employment entity not an airline! - Look at the comment I was replying to.

Like they do for NZ and other places, and for different 'fleets' within Australia - a new employment entity is created, paying less than the 'mainline' rates.

 

[tomlee1986]

Interesting. Hadn't read that. Was disappointed with what I was expecting to become of CX when they bought that. So this is good to see they got out of that.

They did mention it in august but completed in September

 

[markis10]

What I was meaning was an employment entity not an airline! - Look at the comment I was replying to.

Like they do for NZ and other places, and for different 'fleets' within Australia - a new employment entity is created, paying less than the 'mainline' rates.

And how did they go with Jetstar Hong Kong

 

[moa999]

So that presumably takes Cathay back to its former shareholding of
Swire 45%, Air China 30% and Qatar 9.6%.

And then a cross-shareholding where Cathay holds 18% of Air China.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

What I was meaning was an employment entity not an airline! - Look at the comment I was replying to.

Like they do for NZ and other places, and for different 'fleets' within Australia - a new employment entity is created, paying less than the 'mainline' rates.

But as I think was pointed out above, within Australia is not so much an issue anymore because of the ‘same work same pay’ legislation.

While that wouldn’t apply to foreign employed crew… why would QF bother going to all that effort when they could be spending the same time to open a new premium-heavy route to the USA, Asia or Europe? One where they can fill top-dollar business class?

It was interesting for me to note the other day that QF’s 789 only provides four more economy class seats than their 737! Very too heavy with premium … which are markets they could be chasing rather than all the hurdles in China. (Yes setting it up is one thing, but then potential changing environment… )

 

[tomlee1986]

And how did they go with Jetstar Hong Kong

I thought Qantas ended that venture completely?

 

[RooFlyer]

While that wouldn’t apply to foreign employed crew… why would QF bother going to all that effort when they could be spending the same time to open a new premium-heavy route to the USA, Asia or Europe? One where they can fill top-dollar business class?

Exactly, it wouldn't apply to foreign employed crew - that's the gist of what I was getting at. And they wouldn't bother doing it, that wasn't the issue - please do check the context of my original post #22 on the issue, here .

 

[pan01qintian]

Most of you didn't mention the poor reliability and high operational cost of QF's A330 grannies. Plus the significantly labour cost, makes it really hard for QF compete with those 787-9 and A350-900 cash cows from mainland China.
Not to mention QF services are not as premium as it used to be 10 years ago, at that time we paid almost 1000 CNY pp more for QF flights simply because QF metals and service were used to be significantly better than Chinese careers (surprisingly my first ever QF flight was QF130 PVG-SYD, lol). But now why to pay more for QF flights, when you could also enjoy the pav in SYD F lounge if you are travelling with MU with QFF WP status, let alone CX, if you want better catering onboard.
But I still believe Qantas will be back to Shanghai in near future, maybe seasonal service, or operating from WSI, or using JQ metals instead, who knows.

 

[tomlee1986]

Most of you didn't mention the poor reliability and high operational cost of QF's A330 grannies. Plus the significantly labour cost, makes it really hard for QF compete with those 787-9 and A350-900 cash cows from mainland China.
Not to mention QF services are not as premium as it used to be 10 years ago, at that time we paid almost 1000 CNY pp more for QF flights simply because QF metals and service were used to be significantly better than Chinese careers (surprisingly my first ever QF flight was QF130 PVG-SYD, lol). But now why to pay more for QF flights, when you could also enjoy the pav in SYD F lounge if you are travelling with MU with QFF WP status, let alone CX, if you want better catering onboard.
But I still believe Qantas will be back to Shanghai in near future, maybe seasonal service, or operating from WSI, or using JQ metals instead, who knows.

QF A330 is definitely NOT reliable but the bigger issue is the demand from the west to China now days!!! I think some demand is there from China BUT NOT from the western world

 

[pan01qintian]

QF A330 is definitely NOT reliable but the bigger issue is the demand from the west to China now days!!! I think some demand is there from China BUT NOT from the western world

I don't really think the demand is low, MU currently has 2 A350s one flying daily and the other flying 3 days pw, plus another 787-9 daily service during peak seasons, just for PVG, and soon after QF ceased operation in CN market, HO quickly filled the spot with daily service from SYD and MEL to PVG, much less more A330 flights to HGH/NKG/XIY/WUH on MU plus more CZ/MF/HU/CX/CA/JD connecting / stopover flights, these flights could easily be filled up during peak seasons and just look at the INSANE check-in Q for those ci counters everyday.
As for Qantas, to be honest, they just did a simple calculation and find out that they could easily earn more profit from SE Asia and Indian market, an easy decision for them to quit PVG and move their limited capacity to a more profitable market with significantly less competition, understandable business decision.

 

[tomlee1986]

I don't really think the demand is low, MU currently has 2 A350s one flying daily and the other flying 3 days pw, plus another 787-9 daily service during peak seasons, just for PVG, and soon after QF ceased operation in CN market, HO quickly filled the spot with daily service from SYD and MEL to PVG, much less more A330 flights to HGH/NKG/XIY/WUH on MU plus more CZ/MF/HU/CX/CA/JD connecting / stopover flights, these flights could easily be filled up during peak seasons and just look at the INSANE check-in Q for those ci counters everyday.
As for Qantas, to be honest, they just did a simple calculation and find out that they could easily earn more profit from SE Asia and Indian market, an easy decision for them to quit PVG and move their limited capacity to a more profitable market with significantly less competition, understandable business decision.

That’s why I said the demand from China is there BUT the Demand from the western world is low…

 

[pan01qintian]

That’s why I said the demand from China is there BUT the Demand from the western world is low…

Jesus my reading skills sucks, sry mate haha.
But western demands are now filling up CX J cabins instead i reckon.

 

[markis10]

That’s why I said the demand from China is there BUT the Demand from the western world is low…

The demand from China isn’t there as evidenced by the absence in organised tours, their economy is down the gurgler, you only need to visit places like WUH which has a big empty airport and two international flights a day. The demand is ex Australia from those studying or living here, or those grabbing the one stop cheap Europe flights. Any return flights ex China are 2 or 3 x what we are paying.



By comparison 2019 it was 1.4m from China.

 

[tomlee1986]

The demand from China isn’t there as evidenced by the absence in organised tours, their economy is down the gurgler, you only need to visit places like WUH which has a big empty airport and two international flights a day. The demand is ex Australia from those studying or living here, or those grabbing the one stop cheap Europe flights. Any return flights ex China are 2 or 3 x what we are paying.


View attachment 420565
By comparison 2019 it was 1.4m from China.

it is much less i agree... but the demand is still there based on the flights from china operated carriers... otherwise why these airlines would fly despite chinese subsidies (which I see are dwindling due to the government out of money!)

 

[markis10]

why these airlines would fly despite chinese subsidies (which I see are dwindling due to the government out of money!)

Did you read what else I posted??? All the airlines are posting high seat utilisation in the 90% range despite an average of a little over a 1500 Chinese inbound for reasons I explained, otherwise the Chinese traffic would see seat utilisation in the low twenties.

 

[pan01qintian]

The demand from China isn’t there as evidenced by the absence in organised tours, their economy is down the gurgler, you only need to visit places like WUH which has a big empty airport and two international flights a day. The demand is ex Australia from those studying or living here, or those grabbing the one stop cheap Europe flights. Any return flights ex China are 2 or 3 x what we are paying.


View attachment 420565
By comparison 2019 it was 1.4m from China.

As a Chinese I would say part of the missing visitors are not the target costumer of Qantas, as you can find they tend to visit visa-free destinations that cost less nowadays such as HK/Macau and other SE Asia countries, partly because applying for AU visa is not as easy as used to be for non-top-tier-cities citizens and cost them a whooping $200 for a single visit 600 visa.
Qantas's targeted customers are actually either Aussie businesses or middle class travellers, who are now instead, filling up those 4 daily CX jets.
I would still reckon the market is still here, but 1. the reputation of service, timeliness and reliabilities Qantas among Chinese travelers are no longer there 2. a lack of codeshare routes toward Asia or EU destinations from most Chinese Airport especially with MU after the ACCC investigation 3. not as profitable as other market, led Qantas to this decision.