will VARA ever expand to the east-coast?

[simmomelb]

Oh i'm not optimistic either, but if you're doing some medium long term planning you really need to take this factor into consideration that any government might suddenly decide to tank your business model and plan.

Just keep in mind that even if the government could bank roll it, threw billions at it today, from extensive planning to completion, we'd be looking at 12 to 15 years away, and that is being very optimistic.
Realistically 15 to 20 years away, we don't build infrastructure projects like this quickly in Australia and don't have a good track record.
How is the Melbourne airport rail link looking again? Currently looking to be around 10 years away, if something else doesn't go awry, and that is a tiny project in comparison.
If we look at an example where high speed rail has been installed and done very well, say from Tokyo to Osaka, the Shinkansen train is far more expensive than flying, around AUD $154 each way, flights can be had from $50 each way and many still choose to fly over rail (both take around the same time factoring in travel to and from airports to the city).
A high-speed rail line here won't be cheap to travel on with a small population and huge distances between our 3 major cities.
It would be political suicide to spend 75 to 150 billion (who knows!) on a rail network of that magnitude with our pint sized population.

Anyway, rant over, I still get your point but don't think any airline would currently give that any consideration IMO (I could be wrong)

 

[servicerequired]

I think the likelier scenario that we'll see in regional markets is post-election, Rex coming out of administration at some point - I cannot see either side of government 'buying out Rex' at all - instead the 'future Rex' is likely to be somehow and in some form tied up / subsidiary / tightly integrated with VA.

Then - obviously the issue at Rex is their ageing fleet - watch out for renewal / replacement with Q400s or ATRs ... yes, they've apparently got too many seats - but the bulk of the RPT flying which Rex carries out, QF are flying Q400 at lower frequency than Rex's SAABs ...

... at the end of the day, the Rex business model needs to change, 34 seat RPT aircraft are really for niche markets and niche routes - Rex *should* be flying a larger aircraft to the likes of WGA, ABX, MQL, CFS, DBO etc ...

... there will still be a need for something smaller, they'll still have their shrinking SAAB fleet to cater for that end of the market ...

... so maybe its not VARA - but a post-election tie up in some way or through some means of VA and ZL seems inevitable to me ... I would think that both sides of government would try to prod it along and incentivize it.