How will international travel work with no COVID 19 vaccine

[oznflfan]

Newbie and first post, hopefully did right.

Even though more people and funding in medical history is going into COVID 19 vaccinology, I am pessimistic we will ever get one.

Assuming we successfully eradicate COVID 19 from this country by end of 2020, and this may occur given the current levels of control and pain happening Australia wide, my question is how will future international travel from Australia ever occur or be allowed IF A VACCINE IS NEVER FOUND, AND MOST OF THE PLANET HAVE WAVES OF COVID 19 INFECTIONS? (Let's not use visiting travellers coming into Australia just to simplify question and any responses).

1) THIS REQUIRES TECHNOLOGY NOT YET AVAILABLE - BEING INSTANT, RELIABLE AND NON INVASIVE COVID 19 TEST - Will we need a COVID 19 negative 'pass' certificate available prior to airport arrival/check-in/boarding? Let's use Japan as this example, going to watch Olympics in July 2021, with Japan having very limited movement restrictions, but still have COVID 19 outbreaks but not enough to cancel Olympics. When I land at Tokyo, as part of going through immigration do I get another test and if negative I can enter Japan as a tourist (if test positive get sent back to Australia at my cost)? Upon return to Australia in August 2021 do I get the same test done at incoming Australian returning immigration, negative all good, but if positive I get sent to 14 day quarantine (internment camp/hospital)?

2) ASSUMING ABOVE TESTING IS NOT HELD - I may be able to get COVID 19 clearance test prior to leaving Australia, and this may be good enough to enter Japan, but will I automatically need to 14 day Quarantine at my cost in Government controlled hotel on return?

3) What about the old long long weekend 4 night Bali trip, can't be doing that then 14 days quarantine afterwards. Really feel for the Balinese people with what they are going through without tourism income.

If no vaccine, is this the end of international travel? You'll never be able to eradicate this, and herd immunity will take a decade or more. NZ and Australia better equipped than most to eradicate, but Europe is a massive landlinked continent, and even if one country clears COVID 19, within a couple of months they could have 100's or 1,000's of cases again.

Note - I have fully paid travel into Berlin out of Athens end of Sept this year which won't happen, hoping to get refunds out of Singapore Airlines, smaller ones from Wizz and Alitalia, some Agoda hotels and AirBNB. Hoping to re-do something similar July 2021, crossed fingers!

 

[theblank]

if most of the planet has waves of covid19 infections then herd immunity is already significant

I am pessimistic we will ever get one.

how did you come to that conclusion?
.

 

[drron]

Well there hasn't been a successful human vaccine for any corona virus.They tried for 40 years with the common cold and 10 years with SARs so there must be a chance that the result might be negative.
On the other hand technology has advanced in leaps and bounds since SARs so there certainly is a prospect of a vaccine.

The lack of a vaccine will not stop international travel.Hasn't in the past unlikely in the future.There maybe a lot who initially will be too concerned to travel but there are reports around that many Chinese are itching to travel now some of the restrictions have gone.

 

[Seat0B]

I’m interested in how we will get travel insurance to cover at least for potential COVID-19 medical costs. That will be a huge factor in my future overseas travel decisions. I already have ski trip booked to Japan and home via Shanghai in late Jan/Feb 2021 but will likely cancel if I can’t get suitable insurance at an acceptable price.
My early October trip to Paris via Singapore and Helsinki will also either be cancelled by the airline or by me for the ‘landlocked’ continent argument you raise in your post. Feeling a bit down about it all.

 

[tgh]

I had a sobering answer on the vaccine front from someone who would know today...
No better than a maybe with no predictable time line.. the opinion was that we had better get used to it (covid)...

 

[Seat0B]

BTW, nice first post @oznflfan

 

[scaredeycat]

My prediction is that there will be no regular international flights for at least a year, and when QF starts flying again they will be using 787s converted to all J (at F prices). I am a glass half full person, mind.

 

[moa999]

And a risk of the vaccine enhancing the disease, as this article describes in a SARS trial

Coronavirus vaccines: five key questions as trials begin

Some experts warn that accelerated testing will involve some risky trade-offs.

www.nature.com

 

[Himeno]

Let's use Japan as this example, going to watch Olympics in July 2021, with Japan having very limited movement restrictions, but still have COVID 19 outbreaks but not enough to cancel Olympics. When I land at Tokyo, as part of going through immigration do I get another test and if negative I can enter Japan as a tourist (if test positive get sent back to Australia at my cost)?

Japan (and a few other nations in Asia) added temperature checks of arriving passengers during the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic. Those checks never ended.
If people are detected with a fever when going through the quarantine station, they are taken out of the arrivals stream and directed to additional health screening prior to entering Japan. If the scenario you describe were to happen and new rapid SARS-CoV-2 tests created, I would expect them to be added to this temperature check.

 

[p--and--t]

if most of the planet has waves of covid19 infections then herd immunity is already significant

I haven't seen any conclusive evidence either way yet that the majority of those who catch Covid-19 will/won't develop long term immunity.

The "herd immunity" theory relies heavily upon that being the case.

Even the flu vaccines we have today will only given limited coverage and only for a few months.

 

[Pushka]

I’m interested in how we will get travel insurance to cover at least for potential COVID-19 medical costs. That will be a huge factor in my future overseas travel decisions. I already have ski trip booked to Japan and home via Shanghai in late Jan/Feb 2021 but will likely cancel if I can’t get suitable insurance at an acceptable price.
My early October trip to Paris via Singapore and Helsinki will also either be cancelled by the airline or by me for the ‘landlocked’ continent argument you raise in your post. Feeling a bit down about it all.

We won't. It will no longer be covered. I've had to cancel two trips (March and July); had family members lose their jobs, and have had to apply for JobKeeper for our long term family business. Travel is so far down on my priority right now. And I lived for travel.

 

[Seat0B]

JobKeeper

Sorry to hear it @Pushka . I really feel for you. Sort of in the same boat as you.

Luckily no one in my family has lost a job yet, although some have had hours reduced. We too are investigating Jobkeeper for our family business. Ours is tricky to prove - we luckily won a large contract last July, so even though that will all but cease by June, we look like we are making a lot more money than 1 year ago. By July though, it will be zero, so hoping we can join in at that point. As I think you know, my son lives in Dubai. He won’t be coming in August for his annual visit, nor in October to greet his new niece/nephew. I don’t know when I will see him again. I also won’t be celebrating my best school friend’s 60th with her in Paris, a trip we have been talking about for 40 years since 1980! And as I wasn’t leaving until 5 Oct, there is still uncertainty about cancellation/refund etc. uncertainty is doing my head in.

I too lived for travel. If I can’t get insurance, given my ‘advancing age’ will put me in the danger zone for worse complications, I won’t be travelling anywhere.

I hope things look up soon for you and yours. Sending hugs.

 

[Pushka]

Sorry to hear it @Pushka . I really feel for you. Sort of in the same boat as you.

Luckily no one in my family has lost a job yet, although some have had hours reduced. We too are investigating Jobkeeper for our family business. Ours is tricky to prove - we luckily won a large contract last July, so even though that will all but cease by June, we look like we are making a lot more money than 1 year ago. By July though, it will be zero, so hoping we can join in at that point. As I think you know, my son lives in Dubai. He won’t be coming in August for his annual visit, nor in October to greet his new niece/nephew. I don’t know when I will see him again. I also won’t be celebrating my best school friend’s 60th with her in Paris, a trip we have been talking about for 40 years since 1980! And as I wasn’t leaving until 5 Oct, there is still uncertainty about cancellation/refund etc. uncertainty is doing my head in.

I too lived for travel. If I can’t get insurance, given my ‘advancing age’ will put me in the danger zone for worse complications, I won’t be travelling anywhere.

I hope things look up soon for you and yours. Sending hugs.

Aw there are so many sad stories. Who ever would have thought in January that so much destruction would have occurred. So many dreams dashed. July is certainly looking poor, all round. You will certainly qualify for the assistance then. It all helps or maybe just prolongs the eventual decision. But you never know, come October things may be looking business wise as we emerge. I think younger son will join his partner as planned in the UK. He was supposed to be there right now. I think he will get on a plane December regardless. I am holding out hope we can do an Egypt and Jordan trip in late December next year. But really can't imagine going anywhere overseas until then. <mutual hugs>.

 

[kpc]

Without a vaccine, and given travel insurance (almost certainly) won't cover you for Covid 19, unless the coronavirus is eradicated worldwide, OS travel will not be safe for most esp. leisure travellers. Essential business and family OS travel will likely be the norm.

 

[Bundy Bear]

Air NZ just stood down most of their 777 cabin crew for at least a year.

 

[p--and--t]

Aw there are so many sad stories. Who ever would have thought in January that so much destruction would have occurred. So many dreams dashed. July is certainly looking poor, all round. You will certainly qualify for the assistance then. It all helps or maybe just prolongs the eventual decision. But you never know, come October things may be looking business wise as we emerge. I think younger son will join his partner as planned in the UK. He was supposed to be there right now. I think he will get on a plane December regardless. I am holding out hope we can do an Egypt and Jordan trip in late December next year. But really can't imagine going anywhere overseas until then. <mutual hugs>.

On our program today was an all day tour of Marrakesh. Egypt next Sunday and Jordan 2 weeks after that. Ah well, "the best laid plans of mice and men......." as per Robert Burns.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I’m interested in how we will get travel insurance to cover at least for potential COVID-19 medical costs. That will be a huge factor in my future overseas travel decisions.

There's a few potential options... cheaper destinations, medical wise, where people can potentially 'self insure'. Bali or Thailand as possible examples. Or perhaps travel insurance premiums for those countries won't be too extreme. Then there's countries where Australia has reciprocal medicare agreements for urgent care, so that's 10 countries in Europe + New Zealand (although from the Europe list probably the UK/ireland and Italy will be of most use).

If you were 100% healthy leaving Oz you could potentially have 4 or 5 days in France, then head off to the UK and Italy, and be covered if you got sick. The expense would be arranging your flight home, which may be a bit more expensive if you had to change the date.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Well there hasn't been a successful human vaccine for any corona virus.They tried for 40 years with the common cold and 10 years with SARs so there must be a chance that the result might be negative.

Though it appears that with Sars, which occurred in 2003, that a possible a vaccine was developed quite quickly, but not tested:
The first human trial of a possible Sars vaccine was conducted in Beijing in December 2004, but by that time the epidemic was over, and research into other diseases was given priority so it was shelved.

There was no vaccine for Sars or Mers. Will there be one this time?

A month has passed since China locked down millions of people in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei at the heart of the epidemic. In the first part of a series, the Post looks at the race to find a coronavirus vaccine.

www.scmp.com

Scientists were close to a coronavirus vaccine years ago. Then the money dried up.

"We just could not generate much interest," a researcher said of the difficulty in getting funding to test the vaccine in humans.

www.nbcnews.com

And as you stated technology has advanced in leaps and bounds since SARs.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Air NZ just stood down most of their 777 cabin crew for at least a year.

Well I think Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark would currently be the only CV19 free destination.

Few other locations are likely to join them anytime soon. Hopefully Australia along with NZ.


So that would mainly just leave air-freight flights.

 

[JohnM]

Vaccine? - you're dreamin'...

Just bear in mind that one thing that has happened in research institutions/universities in the last couple of decades or so is the rise and predominance of administration, revenue-seeking and PR departments as the organisation's raison d'etre - all of whom know jack-cough about science - but know how to peddle some version of it for a rent-seeking buck...

Worse still - they believe their own B/S - and impose it on the researchers...

Bluntly put, we no longer live in the era of the science of Newton and Einstein.

Just sayin' - as someone who has been there and seen it evolve over the last half-century...

But I guess, believing hard enough, there could be fairies at the bottom of the garden...

And - if I see another TV news clip with someone micro-pipetting some coloured water from one plastic tube to another with a breathlessly-narrated intonation of a 'breakthrough' and and an 'Australian first', I'll scream...