How will international travel work with no COVID 19 vaccine

[RAM]

The US currently has 2.5m active cases in a population of 328m . That's 0.76%.

That is not the statistic I mentioned.

Total tests with positive result / Total test processed that 24 hour period

So there were 5 HQ +ve cases out of a max of 350 passengers = 1.4%

Not total over all times / population

 

[dajop]

That is not the statistic I mentioned.

Total tests with positive result / Total test processed that 24 hour period

So there were 5 HQ +ve cases out of a max of 350 passengers = 1.4%

Not total over all times / population

The figure I mentioned (I think) is entirely relevant to what you are talking about. I'll explain my logic, although I am sure there are some flaws:
- Currently 2.5m "active cases" in the US, not total over all time, but active right now.
- So 0.76% of the US population are considered to have the virus active at this point in time, and thus could possibly test positive (again) if tested.
- So if 200 people got on a plane (and the sample was uniformly representative of the US population at large) then you'd expect either 1 or 2 to test positive.
-You could even modify that to consider that the flights are from California to Australia, and in California there are 373,000 active cases (0.94%) of the population
- Can also add a few fractions of a percent if you think there's a group of people who have never been tested, but might have the virus anyway.
- Now rinse and repeat in other sources, like India, where the number of active cases is but 1/6th of that of the US ... but testing rates also but a fraction.

Conclusion - 1.4% of pax testing positive is certainly within the right order of magnitude for the sources of many international arrivals.

What might throw my logic is the dilution effect of travellers coming from countries with low numbers of active cases ... such as NZ, Taiwan etc.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

A promising study being conducted in Melbourne: Drug that could be our virus saviour

Hydroxychloroquine could be the answer to opening up international travel in the absence - or even in conjunction with - a vaccine.

While hydroxychloroquine may not be effective once you have covid, it might be good to prevent you getting it in the first place.

 

[dajop]

A promising study being conducted in Melbourne: Drug that could be our virus saviour

Hydroxychloroquine could be the answer to opening up international travel in the absence - or even in conjunction with - a vaccine.

While hydroxychloroquine may not be effective once you have covid, it might be good to prevent you getting it in the first place.

Good to see that there are some studies going on to try and remove the “p word” from the discussion about Hydroxychloroquine.

Although from the article it sounds like there are still a number of months to run before it could be described as “promising”. Also from a purely scientific view, now that the cases are going down, will it make it more difficult to complete these sort of studies in Australia to test prophylactic effects of different drugs? Must be much easier to do these studies when the virus is rampant.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Although from the article it sounds like there are still a number of months to run before it could be described as “promising”.

Indeed. Ambiguous wording on my behalf.. I meant to refer to the actual conduct of the study itself being 'promising' rather than any potential outcome (As in, it's good that all avenues of treatment, prevention and cure are being worked on. Hopefully some combination will come out of it all that allows travel without too many restrictions.)

 

[drron]

There are still a few trials going on with Hydroxychloroquine for prevention of Covid.
The Indians have a policy of using it for frontline health staff because they have found it successful.However they use a different dosage schedule to most other studies which use a few days and often with higher than recommended dosages.The Indianes use 2 doses of 400mg on the first day then 400mg weekly for 3-7 weeks.At that dosage no serious side effects.A download for their protocol.

https://www.mohfw.gov.in/pdf/AdvisoryontheuseofHydroxychloroquinasprophylaxisforSARSCoV2infection.pdf

They say that there is an 80% reduction in the number who develope Covid.I have not though been able to tract down any oublication of results though.

This is in contrast to studies in the Western world that haven't had positive trial such as this one.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638

However this used higher than recommended HCQ doses and for only 5 days.Naturally there were more side effects but no serious ones with this short course.A problem was this trial only had 58 positive cases out of 407 in the control arm so it is possible it wasn't enough numbers to get acsignificant result.There certainly were less positives in the treatment arm but not statistically significant.

 

[Pushka]

If the drug hadn't been politicised and weaponised so much, the research would be well on the way to determining if it was an effective Preventative drug.

 

[RAM]

The figure I mentioned (I think) is entirely relevant to what you are talking about. I'll explain my logic, although I am sure there are some flaws:
- Currently 2.5m "active cases" in the US, not total over all time, but active right now.
- So 0.76% of the US population are considered to have the virus active at this point in time, and thus could possibly test positive (again) if tested.
- So if 200 people got on a plane (and the sample was uniformly representative of the US population at large) then you'd expect either 1 or 2 to test positive.
-You could even modify that to consider that the flights are from California to Australia, and in California there are 373,000 active cases (0.94%) of the population
- Can also add a few fractions of a percent if you think there's a group of people who have never been tested, but might have the virus anyway.
- Now rinse and repeat in other sources, like India, where the number of active cases is but 1/6th of that of the US ... but testing rates also but a fraction.

Conclusion - 1.4% of pax testing positive is certainly within the right order of magnitude for the sources of many international arrivals.

What might throw my logic is the dilution effect of travellers coming from countries with low numbers of active cases ... such as NZ, Taiwan etc.

The rate I was talking about is a daily rate of change.

The figure you mention (active cases) is made up of at least 20 days figures - days from 1st positive test to case resolved (dies or no longer tests positive). Actually, the average length of time for an active case is now close to 23 days in the US as they're keeping people who are seriously ill alive for up to 95 days now (longest current hospitalisation I've seen). So that active figure (to be comparable) needs to be divided by 23.

Interesting about India - given that around 40% or more of registered 'Australians' wanting to come home are in India according to DFAT. Also of the 64 repatriation flights organised by the Federal Govt - 13 came from India & 3 from Nepal. Does not match much of the media coverage though.

Interesting to see that AJ is still claiming that Q has flown 'hundreds of repatriation flights'. Official figures are 64 flights in total of which Q did less than 1/3rd. AJ is counting scheduled international flights & domestic flights for some reason (building up 'case' for Govt support in the very near future as at current rate will have zero tangible assets by the end of this month by my figuring (totally spent the $500m raised from the August 10yr unsecured bond issue.

NZ is publishing the origin of every person testing positive, sex, & age range (eg: 40-49 etc).

Perhaps that is why the Federal Govt is not publishing the details as it might sway public opinion against where the limited arrivals are coming from on a % +ve passengers from each location.

The last time I checked the NZ figures over a month - the bulk of +ve arrivals arrived from India, with the US ranked 3rd. Cannot remember the country that was 2nd. Certainly was not the UK nor any European one though.

However given the rapidly accelerating rates in Europe & the UK - that could well be very different now. It was early June I last checked the detailed NZ figures.

 

[RAM]

There are still a few trials going on with Hydroxychloroquine for prevention of Covid.
The Indians have a policy of using it for frontline health staff because they have found it successful.However they use a different dosage schedule to most other studies which use a few days and often with higher than recommended dosages.The Indianes use 2 doses of 400mg on the first day then 400mg weekly for 3-7 weeks.At that dosage no serious side effects.A download for their protocol.

https://www.mohfw.gov.in/pdf/AdvisoryontheuseofHydroxychloroquinasprophylaxisforSARSCoV2infection.pdf

They say that there is an 80% reduction in the number who develope Covid.I have not though been able to tract down any oublication of results though.

This is in contrast to studies in the Western world that haven't had positive trial such as this one.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2016638

However this used higher than recommended HCQ doses and for only 5 days.Naturally there were more side effects but no serious ones with this short course.A problem was this trial only had 58 positive cases out of 407 in the control arm so it is possible it wasn't enough numbers to get acsignificant result.There certainly were less positives in the treatment arm but not statistically significant.

Currently a study underway in Australia using frontline medical staff.

Odd that it has got so little publicity within Australia (anti-Trump media bias?). Cannot publish anything that makes Trump look potentially right when the establishment has declared otherwise? Who knows - certainly not something that I remember hearing about.

One thing for sure, if it comes out positive then there will not be millions in political donations from Big Pharma - as Hydroxychloroquin is out of patent and made in numerous high quality facilities in India for cents per dose vs the USD 2,000 Remdesivir

Yet lots of publicity within China...

Australian researchers launch hydroxychloroquine trial in high-risk health workers

Thousands of frontline doctors and nurses in Australia will take part in a widespread clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine, a controversial drug that has been claimed to defend against COVID-19.

news.cgtn.com

Thousands of frontline doctors and nurses in Australia will take part in a widespread clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine, a controversial drug that has been claimed to defend against COVID-19.

Announced on Wednesday and codenamed, the study COVID SHIELD will be led by Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research (WEHI) in Melbourne, and funded by the Australian government.

During the four-month trial period, half of the 2,250 participants will be given hydroxychloroquine, while the other half will receive a placebo tablet.

Could not find a single article in the mass media over its first three months other than when it first started & before the 'fake' study published in The Lancet - until the major participants tried a media blitz in late August.

It was supposed to be a four month trial - so that suggests it is fast approaching the end as it started in May.

Aussie docs and nurses trial hydroxychloroquine | Australian ...
www.ausdoc.com.au › news › aussie-docs-and-nurses-tr...

Aug 21, 2020 - The 'COVID shield' study, led by Melbourne's Walter and Eliza Hall Institute, has recruited more than 100 healthcare workers to test the drug's ...

Here's hoping (in a Grinch-like way for the politicians) that it produces favourable news!