How will international travel work with no COVID 19 vaccine

[p--and--t]

I value my Emirates shower at $500 so will expect a commiserate reduction in their airfare

Good luck with that . Suggest you don't hold your breath.

 

[moa999]

Presumably that is why they seem to be concentrating on testing in/around hospitals, where active cases remain.

Less than 30 people in hospital Australia wide with Covid. Our numbers are simply too small to be able to draw any conclusions from vaccine testing

 

[CityRail]

I wonder even if we have COVID 19 Vaccine, how long will it take for the Coronavirus curve worldwide to be flatten as it will take time to manufacture and vaccinate general population, and by then we might have already achieved herd immunity in some areas such as Brazil as I can predict that the global curve could start to flatten in a few months time as most countries passed their peak.

 

[Pushka]

I wonder even if we have COVID 19 Vaccine, how long will it take for the Coronavirus curve worldwide to be flatten as it will take time to manufacture and vaccinate general population, and by then we might have already achieved herd immunity in some areas such as Brazil as I can predict that the global curve could start to flatten in a few months time as most countries passed their peak.

Millions of doses of potential vaccines (still in trial) are already being produced, just in case. The issue seems to be the production of the vials.

 

[scaredeycat]

I don't want to destroy everyone's optimism re a vaccine, but the following makes sobering reading:

Rushing a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine: Potential for Harm

This Viewpoint discusses the importance of carefully evaluating SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates for safety and efficacy in the context of political pressure to accelerate the process, widespread vaccine hesitancy and refusal, and distrust of science.

jamanetwork.com

 

[JohnM]

I don't want to destroy everyone's optimism re a vaccine, but the following makes sobering reading:

Rushing a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine: Potential for Harm

This Viewpoint discusses the importance of carefully evaluating SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates for safety and efficacy in the context of political pressure to accelerate the process, widespread vaccine hesitancy and refusal, and distrust of science.

jamanetwork.com

Dang! Just when I was lamenting and suffering withdrawal symptoms that every Mickey Mouse university research outfit in Australia had gone quiet on 'world-first' 'breakthroughs' on producing a vaccine by 15 September.

Not to mention the scientific fraud that goes on in certain countries around us - and whose students we 'educate'...

An excellent article. But we will end up with an even more polarised society out of this...

The killer line: Once again, the pressure to rapidly distribute a vaccine undermined the scientific integrity of the process and damaged public trust.

Those sorts of effects are incremental and almost never undone...

 

[seanQLD]

Background: A hard dose reality check on vaccines

That article makes some VERY GOOD points !

• "Lots of vaccines in the past have stimulated the immune system (just like the Moderna trial vaccine) but ultimately did not confer protection."
• "We do not want to rush the vaccine before rigorous science is done. We do not have a good history of introducing a vaccine in the middle of a pandemic. The swine flu vaccine did more harm than good."
• "Being safe to use in 45 people is not the same as being safe for 200 million people"

tl;dr - making any vaccine for a new disease is difficult and takes years. Anyone who thinks it will be available in 2020 is wrong. And only is a very small chance that it will be available by late (e.g. Nov/Dev ) 2021.. Most likely 2022 or later - if ever.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

But he is the CEO or a large drug company! Someone beats them to a vaccine and they stand to lose huge profits. Hyperbole such as 'governments are doing the people a grave disservice' are of course silly. There's no disservice if a vaccine isn't developed... because no one has 'lost' anything. It's not like the vaccine is being taken away.

Looking at past results is potentially not as helpful here. It's been a long time since we've had such a world-wide pandemic. And one that can't be caught by a change in habits (for example HIV could be reduced with condoms). Covid is not like that. And there are huge profits to be made, so the incentive is there. Perhaps more than ever before.

 

[seanQLD]

But he is the CEO or a large drug company! Someone beats them to a vaccine and they stand to lose huge profits. Hyperbole such as 'governments are doing the people a grave disservice' are of course silly. There's no disservice if a vaccine isn't developed... because no one has 'lost' anything. It's not like the vaccine is being taken away.

Looking at past results is potentially not as helpful here. It's been a long time since we've had such a world-wide pandemic. And one that can't be caught by a change in habits (for example HIV could be reduced with condoms). Covid is not like that. And there are huge profits to be made, so the incentive is there. Perhaps more than ever before.

He makes good, factual points... I understand the potential bias given his position. But that does not detract from simple factual statements made by him .

If you want to look at the progress for a vaccine - lets look at the independent groups PUBLICLY monitoring that progress. Example: WHO (who said today , there may never be a vaccine), Sobering vaccine warning from WHO

JAMA (link in post above, caution against rolling out any vaccine too soon and without rigorous testing ) ... or the London school of medicine who is tracking all 226 projects around the world to develop a vaccine. WHO also tracks this progress, but they are usually a few weeks behind the London school of medicine.

London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine : COVID-19
WHO : Draft landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines

tl;dr: The bottom line is this - globally there are now 28 of those 226 teams that are up to "human trials".. which goes through stages ( pre-clinical, phase1,phase2, phase3 ) Of those 28 already 6 are up to Phase 3 human trials... By the very definition of phase3, that must take many months (usually years) . The most advanced team is Oxford/Astrazeneca and ( if all goes well ) they will finish their Phase3 trial in Sept 2021. One of the chinese teams (Sinovac) is about one month behind that.... That means - if all testing, verification etc are actually done AND no problems AND everything amazingly works as expected in terms of efficacy etc the first of the vaccine candidates can only be ready in the last couple months of 2021 at the earliest.

The Merck guy makes the factual point - that many vaccines candidates FAIL in the final stages. That is just a fact. But even putting that to one side - assuming the Oxford team gets there - we are realistically looking at 2022 before availability... AND THAT IS THE EARLIEST...

If you disagree - please explain the circumstances that could possibly make it earlier - and which of the vaccine candidates can possibly overtake the leading team... BTW I like the UQ team in Brisbane (but unlikely they will be "first" ) . They are one of the 28 in human trials... and according to reported progress are coming 19th at the moment.

 

[drron]

But what he writes is correct.The proper trials need to be done and that takes time.It really is not possible to do a proper trial and have a product released by the end of the year.
Adverse events sometimes take a while to occur.If infrequent a small trial will likely not pick it up.There have been problems in the past in 1976 and 2009 with rushed trials.Fortunately in 2009 someone noticed before the vaccine was released.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

If you disagree - please explain the circumstances that could possibly make it earlier...

They're rolling out one in Russia that will be ready by October, supposedly. i read an Aussie researcher say that one of the vaccines could be given now to those on the front line, and elderly. Now, granted we don't know whether the vaccine in the latter case was entirely effective, but they said it was relatively safe. So even if it didn't work, the potential for protection probably meant it was worth a try.

If it works it works. If it doesn't, I really don't see what harm there is. The only harm would come if governments were reliant on an early vaccine and didn't pursue other measures, such as social distancing, in the meantime. But that's not going to happen.

Us people lose nothing by having the hope of a vaccine. What is the motive for the naysayers? To make everyone more depressed?

 

[seanQLD]

They're rolling out one in Russia that will be ready by October, supposedly. i read an Aussie researcher say that one of the vaccines could be given now to those on the front line, and elderly. Now, granted we don't know whether the vaccine in the latter case was entirely effective, but they said it was relatively safe. So even if it didn't work, the potential for protection probably meant it was worth a try.

If it works it works. If it doesn't, I really don't see what harm there is. The only harm would come if governments were reliant on an early vaccine and didn't pursue other measures, such as social distancing, in the meantime. But that's not going to happen.

Us people lose nothing by having the hope of a vaccine. What is the motive for the naysayers? To make everyone more depressed?

I gave you the links to all 226 vaccine candidates . you say : "rolling out in russia" - hahahaha - oh please ! ...honestly that just sounds like "starting human trials". Please say which one... I gave you the full list. I already explained , with actual verifiable links (not a rumor heard at the pub from a guy who seemed to know ) , that 28 are already in some form of "human trials". But none of those vax-candidates will be ready for public availability before end of 2021.

PICK ANY from the list - we can then verifiably see their status... Your (implied) comment "ready (for public) by October (2020)" .. is just total nonsense. Just point to which research team you think it might be .

 

[drron]

I did post the link about the Russian vaccine.They announced it would be ready in October the day before they started their phase 3 trial.Now what could go wrong with that?

 

[seanQLD]

I did post the link about the Russian vaccine.They announced it would be ready in October the day before they started their phase 3 trial.Now what could go wrong with that?

Oh ok ... Now I know it really is just a joke !
Facts: None of the 6 teams, that have a vax-candidate already in Phase3 trials, are from Russia. Also none of those Phase3 trials are being conducted in Russia. AND....hahahaha.. it is not even possible to complete phase3 trials in just 2 or 3 months.

That is another joke in itself... All but one of the vax candidates (in phase3) require 2 or 3 doses given 28 days apart.... thats before the monitoring begins. The exception is the Oxford/Astrazeneca vax-candidate which is a single dose. BTW - all the phase 3 trials announced so far run for minimum of 10 months....

These are 6 currently in Phase 3


There's one from Russia that is currently at "Pre-Clinical".. which is "human trials"... but they have a long way to go before even being able to nominate what month and what year they could possibly be ready (at the earliest).



As a reality check ... The UQ team in Brisbane is well ahead of that team from Russia. Probably about 6-12 months ahead. But, just because a team is "working on human trials" does not mean their work will ever get to become an approved vaccine.

 

[drron]

It gets better seanQLD.That Russian team hasn't published any data because they want to beat the Americans.

The only thing that seems legit was that it is reported by Bloomberg.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

 

[RAM]

It gets better seanQLD.That Russian team hasn't published any data because they want to beat the Americans.

The only thing that seems legit was that it is reported by Bloomberg.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

But, but, but can't we trust everything said out of Russia - after all Putin never lies nor uses mis-information...

Just like China always tells the truth.

Actually, come to think of it our politicians....

 

[seanQLD]

But, but, but can't we trust everything said out of Russia - after all Putin never lies nor uses mis-information...

Just like China always tells the truth.

Actually, come to think of it our politicians....

beyond hilarious !

I am surprised that Bloomberg published such nonsense... without checking.

The fact is ... the trial that article refers to IS ALREADY BEING TRACKED , along with all the others, in the two links I sent....


That particular vax-candidate is up to Phase 1 trials... if everything goes well for that one, with no hiccups, we'd be expecting it to be ready for public - by mid 2022 at the earliest. It is at about the same point in the timeline at the UQ one in Brisbane.

 

[OZDUCK]

beyond hilarious !

I am surprised that Bloomberg published such nonsense... without checking.

The fact is ... the trial that article refers to IS ALREADY BEING TRACKED , along with all the others, in the two links I sent....
View attachment 224059

That particular vax-candidate is up to Phase 1 trials... if everything goes well for that one, with no hiccups, we'd be expecting it to be ready for public - by mid 2022 at the earliest. It is at about the same point in the timeline at the UQ one in Brisbane.

Well the BBC has also run the same story and has quoted the Russian Health Minister saying that trials have been completed and a mass vaccination campaign will begin in October. I don't see how it is possible trials could have been completed but the media is only reporting what they have been told. The Gamalya Institute vaccine is the one being referred to in the news reports.

I would assume that the 'completed' trials have been as rigorously fair, open and comprehensively reviewed as the last few election campaigns in Russia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro...rld/europe&link_location=live-reporting-story

[/URL]

 

[seanQLD]

Here are the Phase 3 trials - note - all the other 200+ development efforts are not yet up to this stage....
WIBP ( Wuhan Virus Lab ) just updated their completion date to be 15 July 2021 (so they are technically first)



It is interesting where they each are conducting their pahse3 tests.... Brazil, UAE, etc

BTW that Russia one from Gamaleya Institute say their expected completion date from Phase 1 is 05 August 2020... So maybe they will soon move onto Phase 2 .

 

[seanQLD]

Well the BBC has also run the same story and has quoted the Russian Health Minister saying that trials have been completed and a mass vaccination campaign will begin in October. I don't see how it is possible trials could have been completed but the media is only reporting what they have been told. The Gamalya Institute vaccine is the one being referred to in the news reports.

I would assume that the 'completed' trials have been as rigorously fair, open and comprehensively reviewed as the last few election campaigns in Russia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-euro...rld/europe&link_location=live-reporting-story

[/URL]

BBC or Bloomberg ... really it doesn't matter. I am giving you the SOURCE information - the actual full details of each research effort.. Often journalists hear "human trials" and they write up that it is at the last stage before approval - which is wrong. Human testing stages are: pre-clinical, phase1, phase2, phase3.

The actual status of all vac-candidates are given in these 2 links :

London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine : COVID-19
WHO : Draft landscape of COVID-19 candidate vaccines

As at today - the effort from Gamaleya Institute is in Phase 1 .... and they expect that completed on 05 Aug 2020. If journalists cannot read those details - it doesn't alter the facts.