General COVID-19 Vaccine Discussion

[lovetravellingoz]

As long as ICU and deaths greatly minimised, who cares? This is the endgame of vaccines.

Well I think the point is that 93%of 16+ has not yet achieved herd immunity, that it also may not do so. If so that means that the 7% plus all those under 16 are still very exposed. Remember too that some people cannot get vaccinated and so they need herd immunity for reasonable protection and for a reasonably normal life.

So if herd immunity does not occur then the ongoing number of cases in ICU and deaths (as well as all the other severe illness outcomes) will be higher than hoped for. Though yes still low as the numbers vaccinated are so high.

 

[Spongbob]

Did I mishear the Premier's comments at the NSW media conference today (8 August 2021): vaccination is not just a race, but it is now a sprint?

 

[serfty]

Breakthrough infections are evident, though adverse health outcomes are of course much improved amongst the fully vaccianted.

View attachment 254711

What is the source of that data?

 

[lovetravellingoz]

What is the source of that data?

As mentioned it is for Iceland.

Data

Latest updates on confirmed infections, the number of people in quarantine or isolation, and more.

www.covid.is

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Absolutely this. As in the old days of flatten the curve. And stop hospitals being overwhelmed. I'd have thought summer time in Australia once high vaccination rates achieved to be the time to determine the future. With swine flu they simply stopped testing for it. Maybe that's what we need to think about.

Yes Australia is moving towards the focus shifting from number of cases to accepting a certain number of deaths/ICU/severe illness outcomes per a set time period.

Now what will be deemed to be acceptable is the unknown. ie Is it say 10 deaths per day? 1, 50? Plus the other severe illness outcomes as well
Part of it will be the ability of the health system to deal with serious Covid illnesses and to stay functional.

At present it would seem most likely that NSW will be the guinea pigs for the rest of Australia. At present NSW seems likely to try and open up earlier than the rest of Australia and will do so with active community spread. The current surging vaccination rate in NSW if maintained would also see them reach the highest vaccination rate the soonest (well at least of the more populous states anyway).

So the rest of Australia will be watching those adverse health outcomes compared to the vaccination rate in order to make some judgement on what the minimum vaccination rate will be to abandon using lockdowns. Note that this does not mean necessarily abandoning all restrictions.

 

[mviy]

Well I think the point is that 93%of 16+ has not yet achieved herd immunity, that it also may not do so.

Well there are unknowns such as how much better the protection against Delta boosters targeted at that will provide. Also how any new variants change things up.

Also carrots and sticks and sooner or later that those who refuse to protect themselves should face the consequences.

Those unable to take the vaccine for genuine health reasons will have to take steps like immunocompromised have for years to mitigate risks.

 

[drron]

Some more on breakthrough infections.
First the Israeli study only 6 of the 152 hospitalised breakthrough cases had no co morbidities.

The cohort was characterised by a high prevalence of comorbidities including hypertension (71%), diabetes (48%), congestive heart failure (CHF; 27%), chronic kidney diseases (24%) and chronic lung diseases (24%), dementia (19%), and cancer (24%), with only 6 (4%) patients having no comorbidities. Additionally, immunosuppression was present in 60 (40%) patients. Common causes of immunosuppression were chronic corticosteroid treatment, chemotherapy or anti-metabolite treatment, solid organ transplantation and anti-CD20 treatment.

Study describes characteristics of hospitalised COVID-19 patients who were fully-vaccinated

Findings from a study published in Clinical Microbiology and Infection showed that severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), associated with a high mortality rate, might develop in a minority of fully-vaccinated individuals with multiple comorbidities. “mRNA COVID-19 vaccines have shown high...

dgalerts.docguide.com

Then the state of breakthrough cases in the USA.This is with 38 states reporting roughly 75%.The total vaccinated number should therefore be reduced to the 75% level as using the total vaccinated reduces the incidence of breakthrough.That level is near enough to 125 million which means 0.1% of fully vaccinated people have had a breakthrough infection.

At least 125,000 fully vaccinated Americans have tested positive for Covid and 1,400 of those have died, according to data collected by NBC News.
The 125,682 “breakthrough” cases in 38 states found by NBC News represent less than .08 percent of the 164.2 million-plus people who have been fully vaccinated since January, or about one in every 1,300. The number of cases and deaths among the vaccinated is very small compared to the number among the unvaccinated. A former Biden adviser on Covid estimated that 98 to 99 percent of deaths are among the unvaccinated.

Breakthrough Covid cases: At least 125,000 fully vaccinated Americans have tested positive

The 125,682 "breakthrough" cases in 38 states represent less than .08 percent of the 164.2 million-plus people fully vaccinated since January.

www.cnbc.com

From that article-

CDC’s most recent published data on hospitalizations and deaths in breakthrough cases does not break out how many people have died, saying instead that as of July 19 that there have been 5,914 fully vaccinated Americans who have been hospitalized or died from Covid-19.

However of that number just short of 1900 were admitted to hospital when asymptomatic or developed a positive test in hospital.That is very unlikely to have been admitted for Covid.

Then a very interesting article from the Cleveland Clinic and the results of vaccination or having had covid on further infection.

No point vaccinating those who’ve had COVID-19: Cleveland Clinic study suggests

The study findings reveal that individuals with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection do not get additional benefits from vaccination, indicating that COVID-19 vaccines should be prioritized to individuals without prior infection. The study is currently available on the medRxiv* preprint server.

www.news-medical.net

The study was conducted on 52,238 employees in the Cleveland Clinic. A positive RT-PCR test was considered to define SARS-CoV-2 infection. The participants received two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at an interval of 28 days. A participant was considered vaccinated after 14 days of receiving the 2nd vaccine dose. Similarly, a participant who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 at least 42 days before the vaccination initiation was considered previously infected.

Of all enrolled participants, 5% had previous SARS-CoV-2 infection. Compared to 59% of non-infected participants, only 47% of previously infected participants were vaccinated by the end of the study. About 63% of all vaccinated participants received the Moderna vaccine.

Specifically, of all infections during the study period, 99.3% occurred in participants who were not infected previously and remained unvaccinated. In contrast, only 0.7% of infections occurred in participants who were not previously infected but were currently vaccinated.

Importantly, not a single incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was observed in previously infected participants with or without vaccination.

So having had a previous covid infection was the best pointer to whether you would avoid a new infection.

 

[OZDUCK]

Then a very interesting article from the Cleveland Clinic and the results of vaccination or having had covid on further infection.

So having had a previous covid infection was the best pointer to whether you would avoid a new infection.

And then there is this report from the CDC saying that it is very useful for a person who has had Covid to be vaccinated. "Those who did not get vaccinated this year faced a risk of reinfection that was 2.34 times higher than those who did get their shots. The study suggests that for those who had overcome an infection, the addition of a vaccine offered better protection than the natural immunity generated by their original bout with the virus alone."

Vaccine reduces risk of infection even in people who have already had Covid, the C.D.C. says. (Published 2021)

A new small study indicates that inoculation adds a layer of protection beyond the immunity generated by the body to fight infection.

www.nytimes.com

 

[hydrabyss]

Some people say we should have gone with the Pfizer trial instead of Israel so I wonder how many would be open to this.
Moderna considers Australia for vaccine trial for under-12s

 

[moa999]

I wonder how many would be open to this.
Moderna considers Australia for vaccine trial for under-12s

We can start with the two authors of this piece

Kindergarten not year 12 should get priority

Supporting a teenager to learn from home requires the occasional refresher on trigonometry. But helping a kindergarten child learn to read is far more time intensive.

www.smh.com.au

But while the vaccines obviously need to be tested on kids, I can only imagine a very strong 'not my kids' reaction.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Some people say we should have gone with the Pfizer trial instead of Israel

Ha, a solid no thanks from me.

Vaccines For Data: Israel's Pfizer Deal Drives Quick Rollout — And Privacy Worries

Israel paid a premium, locked in an early supply of Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines and agreed to share data from Israel's centralized trove of medical statistics. Privacy advocates have some misgivings.

www.npr.org

 

[RAM]

The key phrase. You originally completely mischaracterized the study and its findings.

Claiming something repeatedly does not make it true. Please detail what I have mischaracterised?

The study identifed that someone who is fully vaccinated can be infected with the Delta variant, be asymptomatic and spread CV without knowing it. It also identified that someone who is fully vaccinated can carry just as high a viral load as someone infected & unvaccinated.

So someone, fully vaccinated can spread CV unwittingly if they are a 'breakthrough case '& with no symptoms as the vaccine is doing its job for them.

As happened in Sydney at Liverpool Hospital, leading to 5 deaths so far.

The US Centre for Disease Control were so concerned by the findings that they REVERSED their advice for fully vaccinated people.

In Australia, no reaction nor update has been made.

Bottom line: Act as if everyone, including you, may be carrying CV as there is no way of knowing without frequent testing.

 

[mviy]

The study identifed that someone who is fully vaccinated can be infected with the Delta variant, be asymptomatic and spread CV without knowing it.

I don't think anyone has claimed that the vaccines are 100% effective at preventing infection. If you are waiting for the perfect vaccine you'll be waiting forever.

Someone fully vaccinated is far less likely to catch the virus and if they do catch it is likely to not be as infectious, although they are more likely to be asymptomatic.

It also identified that someone who is fully vaccinated can carry just as high a viral load as someone infected & unvaccinated.

Vaccines are not 100% effective, but overall they make a big difference.

 

[trevella]

Please detail what I have mischaracterised?

As others have already pointed out:

So the Pfizer vaccine continues to provide protection against serious immediate CV illness (& death) but appears to have no impact in reducing viral load vs unvaccinated. So everybody is as contagious as anyone else regardless of vaccination status.

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Not a good/promising article which might eventuate eventuate for all countries.

Tiny nation becomes vaccine test case for Australia

Iceland is experiencing its worst Covid-19 pandemic outbreak.

www.news.com.au

Iceland is experiencing its worst Covid-19 pandemic outbreak.

That’s despite near-total vaccination levels. And what Delta’s doing there may now be a sign of things to come for Australia.

The small island nation of 357,000 citizens has become a case study of the effectiveness of vaccination against the Delta mutation.

Some 96 per cent of all Icelandic women over 16 have received at least one vaccine dose. The figure for men is about 90 per cent.

In total, 86 per cent of the population has been fully vaccinated.

 

[Pushka]

Not a good/promising article which might eventuate eventuate for all countries.

Tiny nation becomes vaccine test case for Australia

Iceland is experiencing its worst Covid-19 pandemic outbreak.

www.news.com.au

Iceland is experiencing its worst Covid-19 pandemic outbreak.

That’s despite near-total vaccination levels. And what Delta’s doing there may now be a sign of things to come for Australia.

The small island nation of 357,000 citizens has become a case study of the effectiveness of vaccination against the Delta mutation.

Some 96 per cent of all Icelandic women over 16 have received at least one vaccine dose. The figure for men is about 90 per cent.

In total, 86 per cent of the population has been fully vaccinated.

The issue seems to be that once vaccination rates are high enough that all precautions seem to be chucked away too. Social distancing, masks, crowding etc. Instead of a stepped approach it's all or nothing. Binary again.

 

[RAM]

My bolding:

How many times do I have to tell you.the Age article is about 1 outbreak in Provincetown,mass.it is basically an outlier in the USA delta outbreaks.And one outbreak doesn't mean every other outbreak will give the same result.Yiu have absolutely no understanding of Medical trials,significance and relevance.
The Age report of one trial is not the absolute truth.Stop trying to give the absolute worst spin on everything.This is not like Finance and maths where things can be black and white.

The Age article referred to a CDC document mentioning more than '1 outbreak'. Those documents were posted by the NY Times who got them. You may have missed this in The Age article - "The agency’s document relies on data from multiple studies". Not 1 outbreak, I had a look.

The US CDC thought highly enough to REVERSE their previous recommendations for fully vaccinated people.

True, it may not be like 'Finance and maths' but the peak medical body for disease control in the US thinks highly enough of it - they made the call, not me.

I pass on the details as accurately as possible and attempt not to twist. That does not qualify as 'absolute worst spin' but transparency. It may not suit a narrative but that is besides the point.

If someone identifies a mistake - I am happy to acknowledge & correct. Such as wrongly naming RPA, instead of Liverpool, hospital.

The study you quoted at length was irrelevant, it covered the period pre-Delta with less than 0.04% of the cases involving the Delta variant, wasn't it?

Anyone can make mistakes, but it seems few (like Scott Morrison) admit it.

Currently in Australia with so few fully vaccinated the risk flowing from a breakthrough case infecting someone not vaccinated or immunocompromised is much higher than when we are at or above say 80% of the entire population (not just adult population).

Disability Care facility residents yet to receive their first dose is still above 33% as of last Friday.

People need to take precautions.

 

[JB expat]

Not a good/promising article which might eventuate eventuate for all countries.

Tiny nation becomes vaccine test case for Australia

Iceland is experiencing its worst Covid-19 pandemic outbreak.

www.news.com.au

Iceland is experiencing its worst Covid-19 pandemic outbreak.

That’s despite near-total vaccination levels. And what Delta’s doing there may now be a sign of things to come for Australia.

The small island nation of 357,000 citizens has become a case study of the effectiveness of vaccination against the Delta mutation.

Some 96 per cent of all Icelandic women over 16 have received at least one vaccine dose. The figure for men is about 90 per cent.

In total, 86 per cent of the population has been fully vaccinated.

However, the percentage in the hospital is extremely low. According to the article, these low numbers are still straining Iceland's healthcare system BUT the vaccine is doing its job. Many states in the USA offer a real life comparison of impact on the healthcare system where there is low vaccination versus high vaccination. I really do hope that the vaccines do protect against long COVID - even a mild case can result in long COVID and this is not something I've seen written about re: Delta. Likely because the info/data isn't there yet.

 

[RAM]

RAM said:

So the Pfizer vaccine continues to provide protection against serious immediate CV illness (& death) but appears to have no impact in reducing viral load vs unvaccinated. So everybody is as contagious as anyone else regardless of vaccination status. (Joined the 2quotes used by trevella) Please detail what I have mischaracterised?

As others have already pointed out:

From The Age article, 2nd paragraph.

Dr Rochelle Walensky, the director of the agency, acknowledged Tuesday that vaccinated people with so-called breakthrough infections of the Delta variant carry just as much virus in their nose and throat as unvaccinated people.

No mischaracterisation.

 

[Lynda2475]

Some 96 per cent of all Icelandic women over 16 have received at least one vaccine dose

It is clear one dose provides limited protection against Delta, getting people to 2 doses is what keeps them out of ICU, you need only look at Sydney current outbreak for proof of that.