Yes _ I don't know why FOM decided to go down the route of putting all the good races on Pay TV and the rubbish ones on Free to Air. With Australia being a difficult market due to small size, lack of competition in the Pay TV industry, a history of bundling and cross subsidization to maximise profit and minimize choice, hampered by internet download limits not seen in other markets and being in a tricky timezone - they have essentially fragmented their own existing but small market into three groups:
1. Die-hard fans whom will begrudgingly take up pay TV subscription service
2. Die hard fans whom will resist paying and find illegal/free online services and still not watch the FTA broadcasts (lost forever to F1 and the Pay TV and FTA businesses)
3. More casual fans whom will lose interest as all the good races are on Pay TV and they can't justify subscribing to Pay TV and cannot access unlimited high speed broadband (again lost to both businesses and to F1)
I am specifically thinking about fans that don't spend every night at home and work on the road or at worksites with accommodation without Pay TV. If they are away from home there is no way they are going to pay for Pay TV subscription in order to see a few races the few times that they are at home. I imagine that the V8 Supercar competition will suffer significant audience loss and sponsorship/advertiser revenue loss as well from this demographic which will then be grist for the mill at contract re-negotiation time where Foxtel will be able to pull out the shrinking audience stats to beat down the broadcast rights payments.
The way it was 'sprung' on the Australian F1 audience is what annoys people the most, and the Ten network is rightly wearing all the criticism for that, at least the V8 guys had the courage to clearly signal their move to the pay tv model more than a year out. It will be even more embarrassing if the Red Bulls and Dan Ricardo in particular are competitive this season as people will all be wondering why we finally have another talented and high profile australian driver that the public will be interested in but the public won't be able to see him race against the best in the world.
Its a predictable, divisive and short term solution to a problem that is their own making, similar to the Superleague fiasco which really just set the NRL business back about 5 years from where it could have been. I think history will show this to be a major blunder by FOM.