2019 Federal Election Discussion

[travelislife]

The Liberal victory will see the end of talk of future Melbourne Metro 2 and the suburban rail loop, enabling the funds to be directed into the vital East-West link and other important freeway and road infrastructure. Labor needs to realise that public transport doesn't serve the needs of the average middle class eastern suburban residents: cars such as large SUVs are as Australian as meat pies and Holden cars.

When the libs get in next in Vic they can set about eliminating 50 road intersections as they've promised. This construction will then eliminate all road congestion in Melbourne for decades to come and prevent the disruption to our roads that the Metro tunnel is causing. One only has to look at all the major European cities where they have abandoned freeway construction through the middle of their cities in favour of more and more public transport - their roads are congested 24/7, there's nowhere to park in central city areas.

New coal fired power stations all the way up the Queensland coast and fed from Adani will literally turn that state into Australia's powerhouse, providing jobs and growth that the Barrier Reef tourism industry could only dream about.

Good satire, haha.

 

[amaroo]

Re the automation ... not really in actual mining. Biggest impact on number of workers is due to the scale of mining (ie 250t trucks Vs 30t) but that's been going on for ages. You also choose bulk mining methods (ie block caving) over smaller scale - gallery & bench stoping where you can, but again, that's nothing new. Monitoring technologies probably allow additional opportunities in dodgy ground conditions. Some underground remote mining, but that's just a remote controlled machine - it still needs someone to operate it.

Fly-in Fly-out both reduces jobs - in the support towns, but also provides new ones - camp operators, cleaners etc, not to mention in the air network.

In minerals processing - yes, quite a lot of automation there and fewer people required to keep a plant ticking over.

The world had relied on mining since the iron age. Just about everything you touch is the result of mining (or the oil & gas industry) OR could not be made without the products of mining (including just about everything in the renewable energy space ). As we say "What's yours is mined."

Still lots of jobs in mining, don't worry.

..... then there is the construction jobs that mining creates ... lots of mouths get feed from this industry. Plus it contributes a fair chunk of money for our politicians to spend.

 

[RooFlyer]

lots of mouths get feed from this industry

... and when there's some left over after feeding our mouths (and slaking our thirst ), we put it away and invest for our retirement, just like that nice Mr Keating told us to do when he brought in compulsory super and those franking credit thingys.

Then some guy comes up with the idea of changing that, and having me take a 20% income haircut, to spend on something I didn't quite catch.

 

[travelislife]

..... then there is the construction jobs that mining creates ... lots of mouths get feed from this industry. Plus it contributes a fair chunk of money for our politicians to spend.

Unfortunately probably not what we are due. Compare Qatar and Norway royalties (and how their governments invest it) for natural gas vs our royalties for the same volume and we are pretty much giving it away!

 

[dajop]

... and when there's some left over after feeding our mouths (and slaking our thirst ), we put it away and invest for our retirement, just like that nice Mr Keating told us to do when he brought in compulsory super and those franking credit thingys.

Actually, whilst IIRC, it was Mr Keating that introduced the franking credits, it was Mr Howard that extended it to provide rebates for franking credits for those who had no taxable income.

 

[RooFlyer]

Actually, whilst IIRC, it was Mr Keating that introduced the franking credits, it was Mr Howard that extended it to provide rebates for franking credits for those who had no taxable income.

The man goes even higher up in my estimation .

 

[serfty]

However, I wouldn't go so far as saying that the Coalition won the election... current counts suggest they will hit exactly 76 - the same as in 2016, which was widely seen as showing a lack of confidence in the party overall.

In 2016, The Turnbull Government lost a nett 14 seats (from having 90) to scrape to the line with 76. Yesterday, they appear to have won at least 1 seat to get back to that 76. In 2016, the ALP ended up with 69 seats, it is likely the best the ALP appears to be able to to do is get back to that 69 seats.

Given that until Anthony Greene's announcement after 9:30pm last night, most had believed that Labor/Greens would win, coalition confidence would be sky high.

So, assuming everything remains as predicted right now, the LNP wins 76, appoints one to speaker and becomes 75 (minority)

75 seats is not a minority. If a party has 76 seats in the 151 seat parliament there are a further 75 seats on the cross benches and opposition. One member of the government becomes speaker. If for some reason a vote is tied the speaker may get a casting vote but there conventions govern how the Speaker can vote in these cases. 77 means the Parliament is not 'hung'.

Morrison hasn't yet reached a majority. Here's what happens now

But in the senate they win 33, appoint one to speaker to become 32 and even with every other cross-bencher (excluding Labor and the Greens), they wont have confidence and supply and can't pass legislation.

It should be easier for the coalition to pass legislation through the senate now. After the 2016 election the government with 30 seats needed the votes of 9 crossbenchers in the senate, now with at least 33 it appears to be no more than 6 or possibly 5.

 

[rock86]

Palaszczuk will need to put a muzzle on her deputy and get that coal mine open.

Put a muzzle on miss Trad, no chance. If this result doesn't put the ALP in QLD on notice, they may be in for a surprise in 18 months time. However, it still will probably even bigger miracle for the LNP to win back QLD state Govt then what happened yesterday..

 

[rock86]

A fair strong effort has seen corporate taxes boosted from $65 b to $100 b in just two years

So this Govt might be able to leverage these revenue raiders for the betterment of the Nation

The increased corporate tax revenue has little to do with policies and more to do with placement. No longer is the ATO headed by a career public servant, nor are the majority of senior appointments in the department public servants. They all come from private background with significant experience in the large private firms, the ATO is now being run more like a business focusing on results and settlements - this comes from the structure and direction which has arisen since the influx of these professionals.

 

[Quickstatus]

Waiting for a Government who doesnt spend money before it is earned. It is not "savings" when it is spent before it is "saved"...

Norway invested all their royalties into their now trillion dollar sovereign fund from their oil which now earns income which they now spend.

Ours is more like a Ponzi scheme. All the royalties were spent (and then some) as they were earned. Now we need an Ponzi scheme like increasing the population of taxpayers just to pay for existing liabilities.

 

[get me outta here]

And when a sovereign wealth fund could’ve been an option in Aus it was rejected. Norway instituted a sovereign wealth fund and ended up in the prime international position owning so many international equities. And those funds are now forming their ability to turn into electric vehicles and support the industry inter alia.

Unfortunately probably not what we are due. Compare Qatar and Norway royalties (and how their governments invest it) for natural gas vs our royalties for the same volume and we are pretty much giving it away!

 

[coriander]

..... to spend on something I didn't quite catch.

Here's one for you .... Helping patients with cancer expenditure (I'm out of pocket $15000 since my diagnosis at Christmas; various safety nets have now minimised ongoing out-of-pocket expenditure). Whilst our family can afford it, there must be many who struggle to afford the best and most complete care. Another one - dental care for pensioners: periodontal disease is a major cause of heart and lung disease. As for negative gearing - how many OECD countries offer such a generous concession?

Keating also wanted SGC to climb progressively to 12% which would have benefited ALL retirees, pensioners and SMSF holders alike.

 

[amaroo]

The Howard / Costello era future fund is #11 (allegedly) on the World's top 50 list List of countries by sovereign wealth funds - Wikipedia

 

[Quickstatus]

At least there is something to back the commonwealth employee pension liabilities. Up till then these current liabilities were funded by Ponzi contributors = current and future tax payers. Other commonwealth pension liabilities are still funded by the ponzi taxpayers.

Even so past governments have created recurring expenditure before having any income to back it.
Royalties are not income. They are realised capital. Income is earnings from invested capital.
Singapore - island state, no natural resources and no water. Their sovereign funds are estimated to also be nearly a trillion as well. Their constitution explicitly states that current government cannot raid windfalls and gains banked by previous governments.

 

[dajop]

As for negative gearing - how many OECD countries offer such a generous concession?

I don't think any do. But it would take bipartisan support to remove it, it is far to open to exploitation and fear mongering to be ever presented at an election again. The number of comments I read where people completely misunderstood the policy, suggests that it is almost impossible to sell that specific policy. Reading comments in various places, it seems many (most?) people believed that a) they wouldn't able to deduct expenses (such as maintenance, rates etc) for owning an investment property any more (not true, just that couldn't deduct against non rental income) and b) thought that it would effect their current investments (it was to be grandfathered) and c) it would reduce the number of people investing in new homes (it would not apply to newly built homes) suggested that such a policy is too complicated and ripe for exploitation.

Furthermore, it was plain dumb to throw in both the capital gains and dividend franking credit rebate policies along with wage increases at the same time. One of the four policies only, labor might have been across the line. All four, it's clear that they made themselves an easy target for the fearmongers in the modern era, where fear wins elections not policies. I have tended to labor (still think Australia would have been a much better place had Kim Beazley had the chance to be PM), I think the lack of judgement shown in bringing such an onslaught of policies to the election, perhaps also indicates lack of good judgement to be capable of governing .

I live in hope that Scott Morrison can put the intense division of the last 12 years behind us, actually lead the country (rather than follow), build bridges across the political divide and start to remind us what Australians have in common, rather than continue to tear us apart just for political gain, which has been something that has afflicted all dimensions of politics in recent history.

 

[I love to travel]

Shorten backing Tanya Plibersek to become leader and he wants to stay on the front bench. Here we go again....

 

[Dr Ralph]

Congrats to ScoMo. A well deserved win. Shame there was never an effective opposition that a reasonable person could have ever voted for.

 

[Quickstatus]

And here we go. The media personalities are apopletic. One is saying "Australians are dumb, mean spirited and greedy". Another implores ScoMo to seek advice from Adern. Another calls the voters "turds". One wished she was a New Zealander. One tweeted "we may have to declare war on Queensland"

I suspect the next 3 years will be turbulent because the Media wont accept the people's verdict.

 

[ozfflyer]

presume now lnp back in govt, that airlines will try to push up all the loss leader fares slightly & see if they sell. Could be interesting few weeks. From what I've been told, by a few airline resps, I know, forward sales died, when election was announced. Also know many who delayed big purchases, to see what election result was.

 

[Quickstatus]

... it was plain dumb to throw in both the capital gains and dividend franking credit rebate policies along with wage increases at the same time. One of the four policies only, labor might have been across the line. All four, it's clear that they made themselves an easy target for the fearmongers in the modern era, where fear wins elections not policies...

And they also threw in the no caps foreign parent migration policy.

I suspect they stuck they necks out because they they really believed they were going to win and they might as well go for broke - Bowens' "dont like it vote against us" being the comment that reveals what they really thought of their prospects. Just like Hilary.

Even the betting people paid out early to those who bet a Labor win.

Dont they know that until Antony Greene says who won, the result is unknown?