2019 Federal Election Discussion

[JessicaTam]

There are different types of votes:

Ordinary - voted correctly within electorate
Absent - votes correctly outside of electorate
Prepoll - voted correctly within electorate before polling day
Postal - voted by mail
Provisional ?
Informal - donkey/muppet vote

What’s a “provisional” vote

A provisional vote is one that needs further checking before being admitted:

From the AEC: "A vote cast when a voter's name cannot be found on the certified list, the voter's name is already marked off the certified list as having voted, or the voter is registered as a silent elector."

An informal vote is one that has not been filled out correctly. E.g. not putting a 1 against any box.

A donkey vote is where the elector puts a 1 in the first box, 2 in the second and so on. So not informal, just lacking effort perhaps. Of course there will be the occasional elector who finds the order of candidates on the ballot paper exactly matches their preferences.

Edit: @RooFlyer beat me to it!

 

[Quickstatus]

Ah so a provisional vote includes the “vote early vote often”

Will be a long “night” for Macquarie. The provisional vote count is high relative to margin.

 

[serfty]

In the seat of Herbert in 2016 on the initial count the ALP won by 8 votes.After the recount the win was 37 votes.The previous member conceded the loss even though the LNP did consider going to the court of Disputed returns as it was likely some Army personnel on exercise couldn't vote and the AEC found over 40 cases of people voting twice-ie their name had been crossed off twice.

If the LNP had gone to the court of disputed returns and won, a new election (by-election?) for the seat would have been required. Given the post election mood of 2016 I suspect the LNP decided that would likely loose.

 

[Quickstatus]

Plus they really didn’t have the cash to fund a by election as they were in hock to Turnbull.

Nevertheless the whole system of voting needs to improve to prevent multi voting.

 

[Quickstatus]

The new Cabinet

 

[OATEK]

Postal votes no longer necessarily favoring coalition

A slight bounce today with Libs now 57 ahead in Macquarie with just about all votes counted. As JT says will be a recount, and I know from a scrutineer in a similar situation a few years ago, lots of squabbling about Informals.

 

[Quickstatus]

Is numbering outside the box informal?

 

[OATEK]

Is numbering outside the box informal?

The AEC say as long as the numbering is sequential, then no problem. This is an example they give at: https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/candidates/files/ballot-paper-formality-guidelines.pdf

 

[Quickstatus]

Macquarie Will likely go Labor as Absent votes about 1000 to be counted and they have favoured Labor. Libs were favoured in postals but not a lot of those left

 

[cove]

Naturally I would prefer this one to go to the Coalition to give the PM a buffer. We had a visit from an Australian couple who told us that BS would have hurt them financially too. One is retired and the other is working part time now.
My biggest concern was for so many of our smaller customers getting hit up by the proposed 30% Trust tax proposal and would get forced out of business. I am ok with it being 20% or a number near that if it stops massive tax avoidance.
I think Victoria and Queensland will be the two States who will want a higher GST rate sooner rather than later.

 

[Quickstatus]

AEC has changed Macquarie back to Labor

 

[dajop]

My biggest concern was for so many of our smaller customers getting hit up by the proposed 30% Trust tax proposal and would get forced out of business. I am ok with it being 20% or a number near that if it stops massive tax avoidance.

One thing I think is needed, is a serious adult conversation (free of election campaigns) about what would the tax system should like look to be fair and equitable, whilst not stifling the economy or penalising people. Trusts no doubt come into this. Also although the Labor policies obviously went too far, in principle the idea of making non-productive investments (such as existing housing stock) less attractive from a tax perspective and riskier, productive investments (such as new housing or investment in business activity) more attractive is not a bad idea per se.

 

[OATEK]

AEC has changed Macquarie back to Labor

Just looked at their site and they still show Lib 57 ahead. Where do you see the turnaround posted?

 

[Quickstatus]

Sorry @OATEK I misread:

 

[Quickstatus]

One thing I think is needed, is a serious adult conversation (free of election campaigns) about what would the tax system should like look to be fair and equitable, whilst not stifling the economy or penalising people. Trusts no doubt come into this. Also although the Labor policies obviously went too far, in principle the idea of making non-productive investments (such as existing housing stock) less attractive from a tax perspective and riskier, productive investments (such as new housing or investment in business activity) more attractive is not a bad idea per se.

There have been a lot of “tax reviews” . Very few recommendations of those reviews were ever taken up.

 

[OATEK]

Sorry @OATEK I misread:
View attachment 166340

That is currently held by, as with Bass above ie before this election is declared.

 

[I love to travel]

I wonder whether MPs who were in place before election day are still getting paid. If they lose their seat, does their salary get cut off from election day?

 

[dajop]

There have been a lot of “tax reviews” . Very few recommendations of those reviews were ever taken up.

True, but these are usually "independent", devoid of political involvement, and thus have very little chance of ever being politically acceptable. Really ALP and LNP need to sit in a room, nut it out, find what is acceptable and call a truce. Haha "tell him he's dreaming"

One point - Howard has demonstrated that taking tax reform to the people as a popular first term government with runs on the board is going to work better than an opposition taking a reform package to the polls (Hewson, Shorten), or a unpopular first or second term government - especially those who have l changed prime ministers mid term.

 

[Quickstatus]

I wonder whether MPs who were in place before election day are still getting paid. If they lose their seat, does their salary get cut off from election day?

They are all in caretaker mode. So they still get paid until the new government is sworn in.

 

[Quickstatus]

True, but these are usually "independent", devoid of political involvement, and thus have very little chance of ever being politically acceptable. Really ALP and LNP need to sit in a room, nut it out, find what is acceptable and call a truce. Haha "tell him he's dreaming"

Well that’s why the electorate has not given the government an majority in the Senate in recent times - to get them to seek a consensus.