AAdvantage devaluation coming?

[burmans]

hey B, how far out are you seeing Qatar award flights available for redemption out of Sydney >

I was looking out to about June I think.

 

[JayTee]

I was looking out to about June I think.

Hmm, I'm on the AA website and can only see redemption out of sydney with QR up to 5 April.

 

[VPS]

Scenario -

I really want to fly in December but obviously flights not open yet. If I book a flight for say August next year and don't change anything but the date do you think I'd get it for the same number of points or would it be a rebooking.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I wonder if it would include devaluing partner awards? I am in a similar position, sitting on 120k miles and have done for years. My own fault for not using them sooner...though not without trying thanks to the pandemic. Really hope things aren't touched (much) for partner travel

 

[kpc]

Just booked a pair of JL J awards Syd-Hnd return for 160K AA miles for Easter next year. Hope Japan opens up by then without quarantining on arrival otherwise will have to cancel.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I wonder if it would include devaluing partner awards? I am in a similar position, sitting on 120k miles and have done for years. My own fault for not using them sooner...though not without trying thanks to the pandemic. Really hope things aren't touched (much) for partner travel

Who knows. IIRC UA devalued at least some their partner awards (fixed prices), and so did SQ on their last round? At least partner charts are fixed vs the dynamic for the home carrier.

At any rate there should be some advance notice.

 

[burmans]

At any rate there should be some advance notice.

Yes agreed, just looking back it appears last time (AAdvantage award Devaluation - Bookings from Mar 22nd 2016) they gave more than 3 months notice. And for those looking to book further out you may feel it is worth coping a change fee rather than the changed miles required?

 

[VPS]

Yes agreed, just looking back it appears last time (AAdvantage award Devaluation - Bookings from Mar 22nd 2016) they gave more than 3 months notice. And for those looking to book further out you may feel it is worth coping a change fee rather than the changed miles required?

Do you know what the change fee is?

 

[burmans]

Do you know what the change fee is?

Well no, I thought it was either $50 US or $75 (per booking) but looking online it seems to be nil currently. Unsure if that was temporary or permanent but of course this may be one of the things they change!

 

[kpc]

AA have waived cancellation and change fees atm

 

[Must...Fly!]

Just realised I cancelled two awards (one via phone and one via the web) about 3 months ago and haven't had the miles or cash returned yet. Guess I'll make a phone call this week.

 

[JayTee]

The only option I use is laundering points from:

Amex -> Marriott Bonvoy -> Aadvantage

in bunches of 90K Amex -> 60K Marriott Bonvoy -> 25K AAdvantage

A little while ago there was a limited-time promotion with a slightly better rate for Amex -> Bonvoy which meant 72K Amex laundered to 25K AAdvantage.

Not great conversion rates, but the best way I have found for sourcing AAdvantage miles in Australia. And I generally have considered AAdvantage miles to be of considerably higher value than Qantas FF point. I have around 300K AAdvantage miles in the bank and hold Lifetime Gold status, so I am hoping the predicted devaluation does not impact my retirement plans.

Nm, the conversion rate to AA from Marriot is not so attractive . I noticed Marriot has a promotion at the moment . I am short of 20k AA miles to finalise my award flight next year . What do you recommend in your opinion ?

 

[NM]

Nm, the conversion rate to AA from Marriot is not so attractive . I noticed Marriot has a promotion at the moment . I am short of 20k AA miles to finalise my award flight next year . What do you recommend in your opinion ?

Indeed the exchange rate from Marriott to AAdvantage is not wonderful. The slight redeeming factor is when converting to 20K AAdvantage miles, you receive a 5K bonus. So you receive 25K AAdvantage miles for 60K Bonvoy points.

Only you can determine the value of those 25K AAdvantage miles and 60K Bonvoy miles. The only real comparison is with purchasing AAdvantage miles directly from AA.

 

[drron]

Yes I miss the days when SPG and DC both had good conversion rates to Aadvantage.Transferred enough to get to LTP plus a few SWPs along the way.Sadly those days long gone.

 

[NM]

Yes I miss the days when SPG and DC both had good conversion rates to Aadvantage.Transferred enough to get to LTP plus a few SWPs along the way.Sadly those days long gone.

Yes, I too transferred quite a few DC -> AA and even more Amex -> SPG -> AA. But unfortunately could not quite get to LTP before the cut-off for such points counting towards lifetime status. Sadly I am still about 80K EQM short of LTP.

 

[Danger]

Scenario -

I really want to fly in December but obviously flights not open yet. If I book a flight for say August next year and don't change anything but the date do you think I'd get it for the same number of points or would it be a rebooking.

I think you'd be stung with the higher cost, if the cost had indeed increased. However, with no penalties for cancellations at the moment, I would book now, decide later.

 

[JayTee]

So in short, does devaluation mean that redeeming AA miles on Qatar Airways will increase?. From 170k return to 175?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So in short, does devaluation mean that redeeming AA miles on Qatar Airways will increase?. From 170k return to 175?

We don't know for sure, but likely there will be (a) dynamic pricing for AA metal and (b) and increase in fixed partner redemptions. The amount of increase is anyone's guess. Could be a 10% increase, so the 170K return becomes 187K (or more likely 190). Or maybe more. Aeroplan charges 100K for a redemption Europe to Australia, United charges 99K. AA could match those levels, or go even higher like QF's levels.

 

[JayTee]

We don't know for sure, but likely there will be (a) dynamic pricing for AA metal and (b) and increase in fixed partner redemptions. The amount of increase is anyone's guess. Could be a 10% increase, so the 170K return becomes 187K (or more likely 190). Or maybe more. Aeroplan charges 100K for a redemption Europe to Australia, United charges 99K. AA could match those levels, or go even higher like QF's levels.

I suppose its clear now why AA are encouraging people to buy points now before they become too expensive to redeem. I think its wise to redeem the points now and if you need to change the dates before the flight, at least you wont have to pay the difference on the new redemption rate, right?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I suppose its clear now why AA are encouraging people to buy points now before they become too expensive to redeem. I think its wise to redeem the points now and if you need to change the dates before the flight, at least you wont have to pay the difference on the new redemption rate, right?

I don't know if we can assume that. It's possible a date change might be at the original points level, but also possible any ticket re-issue (change of route or airline) could trigger a reprice.